25
   

How (and when) will the Government Shutdown end?

 
 
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
My take on the politics of the government shutdown...

- Trump is not going to buckle on the wall.
- The Democrats are not going to give in on the wall (without major concessions from the Republicans on things like DACA).
- Eventually someone has to buckle.

I think that McConnell is going to be the key to ending this. As the pressure mounts, I think McConnell (and the Senate Republicans) are going to feel the most pain. I think the Republicans are going to give an ultimatum to Trump in private... and work for a face-saving measure for Trump in public so that Trump can claim victory.

The current record for a government shutdown is 21 days. My prediction is that we will go at least 25 on this one (and maybe significantly more).

(I am starting this thread in hopes of discussing the strategy and gamesmanship. My intention is to leave political biases at the door.)
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Type: Question • Score: 25 • Views: 10,686 • Replies: 696

 
View best answer, chosen by maxdancona
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 11:59 am
@maxdancona,
I think McConnell has been neutered and will have no impact at all on the shutdown. He will only bring forward whatever Trump agrees to and content himself with approving Trump judges. To some extent, same for Schumer, so it is Pelosi and Trump who are going to decide this. (Just an aside, but it was completely shameful for Ryan to walk away from Washington and wash his hands of this mess as House Speaker.) I think it will go on for a while then Pelosi will extract some concessions in other areas in return for 2-3 billion for border security. Trump will say it is for the wall, Pelosi will say it is for border security, we'll probably see a fix for DACA, maybe some other immigration related wins for Democrats.
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 12:04 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

The current record for a government shutdown is 21 days. My prediction is that we will go at least 25 on this one (and maybe significantly more).

I read in some headline that someone suggested government employees ask to do chores in lieu of some amount of their rent.

In general, the shutdown could last as long as it needs to if people would just cooperate to lower their costs.

It's sad that we have an economy that's so fixated on always getting and spending more money instead of figuring out other solutions that cost less.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 01:50 pm
@engineer,
I am curious about how much pressure there will be on Trump/McConnell from moderate Republicans in the Senate. I don't think Pelosi is feeling much political pressure to compromise.
thack45
 
  4  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:05 pm
Concerns over employees of the government that we hate to love to hate not being paid, and people filling national parks with doodies, has only gone so far. But reports are out now that an extended shutdown could delay tax refunds, so an actual sense of urgency might finally materialize
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:09 pm
@maxdancona,
My opinion is that Trump doesn't feel pressure from the Senate at all. That is why McConnell is out of the game. He used to able to count on Ryan to get a simple majority and pass whatever he sent them, that's out now. If McConnell were willing to override a Trump veto, then he would have some clout, but he's said he is not willing to put anything to a vote that the President doesn't support, so he's got nothing. Likewise, moderate Republicans don't have the votes to replace McConnell so he can ignore their protests. I don't think the Senate has a "discharge petition" that can override leadership, so if McConnell doesn't want to vote on something, it's not going to get a vote.
livinglava
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:10 pm
@thack45,
thack45 wrote:

Concerns over employees of the government that we hate to love to hate not being paid, and people filling national parks with doodies, has only gone so far. But reports are out now that an extended shutdown could delay tax refunds, so an actual sense of urgency might finally materialize

What refund? Isn't the ACA individual mandate penalty still in place for this year's tax payments? Many people would probably rather keep the government shut down to avoid taxes than to try to get a refund that's non-existent.
thack45
 
  4  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:19 pm
@livinglava,
I don't know whether or not a shutdown would enable people to avoid paying that penalty, or any taxes for that matter. However, there are millions of Americans who are insured and who are expecting a tax refund this year. Politically speaking, I'm guessing the wonks would focus on the latter.
engineer
 
  6  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:22 pm
@thack45,
We just need all government employees that are not getting paid to stay home. No airline flights, no cross border traffic, monstrous economic disruption, we'd have the government open in hours. The idea that the government can force people to work without pay makes all this possible.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 02:29 pm
@engineer,
I don't think we are going to see Pelosi budge very much... unless she is given something very nice in return. And, I don't think we will see Trump budge. Maybe 2 or 3 billion dollars for the Dream Act is possible.

As the saying goes.... eventually something's gotta give.
0 Replies
 
Sturgis
 
  3  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 03:19 pm
@maxdancona,
It will occur when the first stack of subpoenas arrives at the office of whoever is Trump's attorney at the time.

Shortly thereafter, a shiny new Barter Wall will go up. In truth it will be a 100 yard spatter proof slatted fence with an immigration station on each side to answer basic questions.

At this time, I am expecting the shutdown will continue until the middle of March.
engineer
 
  4  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 03:41 pm
@Sturgis,
Government employees missed their first paychecks this week, right about the time their mortgages or rents were due. If they miss two in a row, I suspect people will start having very serious hardships. I don't know how much the average TSA agent or park ranger has in reserve, but two paychecks is around $4,000, right around the time Christmas bills are coming in. If this goes on until March, a lot of people are going to be hammered with interest charges and eviction notices beyond their ability to be made whole with back pay.
livinglava
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 03:53 pm
@thack45,
thack45 wrote:

I don't know whether or not a shutdown would enable people to avoid paying that penalty, or any taxes for that matter. However, there are millions of Americans who are insured and who are expecting a tax refund this year. Politically speaking, I'm guessing the wonks would focus on the latter.

Then they better agree to the wall in time for tax refunds.
thack45
 
  4  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 07:12 pm
@livinglava,
They could of course agree to no wall too.
livinglava
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 07:40 pm
@thack45,
thack45 wrote:

They could of course agree to no wall too.

What would convince Trump to postpone the wall funding demand?

Maybe a bare-bones budget that just keeps the government on minimum until the other issues can be settled.

But if it were me, I wouldn't agree to anything until the people who trashed the national parks put them back in the condition they found them when they got there. No deal until the parks are clean!
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 09:42 pm
@livinglava,
livinglava wrote:

thack45 wrote:

They could of course agree to no wall too.

What would convince Trump to postpone the wall funding demand?

Maybe a bare-bones budget that just keeps the government on minimum until the other issues can be settled.

But if it were me, I wouldn't agree to anything until the people who trashed the national parks put them back in the condition they found them when they got there. No deal until the parks are clean!


They offered him that exact thing today.

He declined.

The TrumpShutdown continues.
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 3 Jan, 2019 11:34 pm
@engineer,
Quote:
March, a lot of people are going to be hammered with interest charges and eviction notices beyond their ability to be made whole with back pay.

They chose their jobs, **** happens. I would think some are smart enough to avoid those problems. No one thinks very highly of anyone. With an attitude like that how can you solve problems?
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2019 04:39 am
@engineer,
engineer wrote:
If this goes on until March, a lot of people are going to be hammered with interest charges and eviction notices beyond their ability to be made whole with back pay.

What’s the situation with the army? Are the troops being paid? Otherwise, if this goes on until March, there’ll be a military coup.

engineer
 
  2  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2019 06:52 am
@engineer,
On McConnell:

Quote:
With the partial government shutdown closing in on two weeks and no end in sight, Mitch McConnell says Democrats are privately urging him to help find a way out of the impasse.

Not going to happen, says the Senate majority leader.

“I don’t see how that leads to an outcome. And I want to get an outcome,” McConnell said in a brief hallway interview on Thursday. “That will be determined by the president and Senate Democrats.”
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Jan, 2019 07:40 am
@Olivier5,
The troops are being paid. The money for the department of defense is appropriated separately and no one is politically stupid enough to mess with it.
 

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