27
   

How (and when) will the Government Shutdown end?

 
 
revelette1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 09:36 am
@maporsche,
Well, I have to admit, I think that is a losing strategy with Trump. Trump would lose his hammer so to speak for his wall in that case. I don't think she should be so firm on that stance. I just haven't heard whether DACA was part of any feelers for ending the shutdown from Trump himself.

I thought maybe saying the money for border security would kind of cover money for the wall if the Department of Homeland Security (or whoever) feels an actual physical barrier needs to be put in certain points of entry.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 09:56 am
@revelette1,
This is not happening in a vacuum. If Trump offers a reasonable deal, Pelosi would face political pressure to appear willing to consider it. If the public swings behind the deal, I think the Democrats have to go along.

There are lots of moving parts in play if a credible deal is proposed. That would change the game considerably.

It doesn't look like that will happen.
revelette1
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 10:21 am
@maxdancona,
I'm just saying, she should get over when the shutdown started and who started it and who is to blame, (Trump in all three) and offer something Trump wants to get what most of the country wants in return (Dreamers) and get the shutdown ended.
tsarstepan
 
  9  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 10:21 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

If Trump offers a reasonable deal....

Let's stop you right there. Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
...
Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
That's cute. Laughing Laughing
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 10:55 am
@revelette1,
Be specific Revelette. What exactly do you think Pelosi should offer?
revelette1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 11:53 am
@maxdancona,
Money for the wall, maybe not as high, that can be worked out, but she has got to offer something for the wall, it is all he wants and he won't accept anything else.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 11:56 am
@revelette1,
I disagree with you...

1. She will have to offer $5.6 billion. That is all Trump wants and he won't accept less.

2. If Trump (or any other president) can get whatever he wants by shutting down the government, we can expect this every year. We are setting a very bad president... I mean precedent (I think).

3. Trump is about to re-open the government anyway. So what is the point?
engineer
 
  4  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 12:00 pm
@maxdancona,
Because Trump is so fixated on the wall, there is a unique opportunity here.
The win for Pelosi would be to offer wall money which Trump will jump at but extract so many concessions that overall it is a win for the United States. Pelosi should ask for a fix for DACA, a system to rapidly process and admit asylum seekers on the border, a significant expansion of the existing guest worker program and a forgiveness program for immigrants living in the US illegally provided they have a history of law abiding and productive work.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 12:02 pm
@engineer,
I am almost certain that this is on offer... I have been suggesting this as a possibility from the beginning of this thread.
0 Replies
 
coldjoint
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 12:08 pm
@engineer,
Quote:
Because Trump is so fixated on the wall,

This could be why, look at the results from a wall.
Quote:
Steel Border Fence Stopped 91% of Illegal Immigration, Slashed Crime

http://www.independentsentinel.com/steel-border-fence-stopped-91-of-illegal-immigration-slashed-crime/
0 Replies
 
Sturgis
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 03:05 pm
@maxdancona,
Point 1 - if he is allowed the sum he desires, it must not to go a go for a wall or slatted fence. To use it for border security must be its only direction. Security as in people, not nonsense.

Point 2 - agreed. But then again this is how Trump has always behaved and due to his father always giving up and in, he does not know anything else.


Quote:
3.Trump is about to reopen the government anyway...


You know this for a fact? Are you now a soothsayer?

And don't try to bob and weave your way around this.

Do not point at the IRS and the tax returns and refunds being back on schedule. Those workers are still not going to get a paycheck, so, it doesn't count. Reopening this that or the other is not actual results. Getting a budget put together is supposed to be the goal.


Quote:
So what is the point?


In that case, what is the point of this thread, other than to see who can become most irate and bothered?

Or was that your goal all along and we're just part of an experiment?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 03:55 pm
@Sturgis,
Quote:
You know this for a fact? Are you now a soothsayer?


Yes I do. And yes, as a matter of fact, I am.

Quote:
In that case, what is the point of this thread, other than to see who can become most irate and bothered?


The title of this thread is "How (and when) will the Government Shutdown end?". I think it is clear what the point of this thread is. It is to analyze the political strategy and the pressures on the players to try to predict what is going to happen.
Sturgis
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 03:58 pm
@maxdancona,
Carnac, is that you?
RABEL222
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 05:50 pm
@Sturgis,
Do any of you believe the lieing master thief will agree to any deal? Let things keep on going until the republicans realize Trump has led them into a no win situation.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Jan, 2019 08:00 pm
Lindsay Graham has given up on his compromise (DACA+TPS for border wall). He is now calling for Trump to declare a national emergency.

There is a question about whether ICE will be able to detain non-dangerous undocumented immigrants. These immigrants are held by private contractors who run the immigration jails. These jails aren't getting paid... but the anti-deficiency act says they can't offer the services on credit unless there is a immediate danger to life or property.

Air travel disruptions are at the tipping point. At some point TSA agents start quitting in significant numbers.

This will not go on much longer... end of next week at most (and the National Emergency could be tomorrow).

livinglava
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 11 Jan, 2019 07:13 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

Lindsay Graham has given up on his compromise (DACA+TPS for border wall). He is now calling for Trump to declare a national emergency.

There is a question about whether ICE will be able to detain non-dangerous undocumented immigrants. These immigrants are held by private contractors who run the immigration jails. These jails aren't getting paid... but the anti-deficiency act says they can't offer the services on credit unless there is a immediate danger to life or property.

Air travel disruptions are at the tipping point. At some point TSA agents start quitting in significant numbers.

This will not go on much longer... end of next week at most (and the National Emergency could be tomorrow).

Maybe they could end the shutdown by agreeing to a constitutional amendment allowing random drug testing throughout the population so there wouldn't be any conflicts with the 4th amendment.

That would undermine demand for trafficking and thus render the wall unnecessary.
Olivier5
 
  5  
Reply Fri 11 Jan, 2019 07:28 am
@livinglava,
I thought you didn't believe in the effectiveness of any governments. So what's the shutdown to you?
revelette1
 
  3  
Reply Fri 11 Jan, 2019 09:22 am
I think anybody who thinks they know how and when this Government shutdown ends, is fooling themselves. Let's say Trump declares a National Emergency the way Graham has encouraged to do, diverting money disaster areas, FEMA and the Pentagon and other much needed government funds, what then? Do the democrats just say, "well, the reason for the Shutdown is gone, we may as well open up the government?" Do we just let this dictator get clean away with his bullying the whole country because he wants a stupid wall that nobody but him and a relative few like him wants?

If I was in charge of democrats (Lord forbid, huh?) I would say to Trump, go for it. Then I would impeach his sorry butt.
neptuneblue
 
  2  
Reply Fri 11 Jan, 2019 10:12 am
McConnell's not a stupid man. He's waiting to call a vote until at least 75 senators will pass a bill to re-open the government without wall funding. He has a precarious position, having to support a president who will not support him.

McConnell can't have Trump picking off a handfull of senators that have re-elections coming up. He'll wait until the majority can take the vote.

He's not all that fond of Trump. He's stuck, just waiting to show a big middle finger...
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Fri 11 Jan, 2019 10:17 am
@revelette1,
We will see if I am fooling myself. There is only one way that this ends.

After the National Emergency is declared, the Republicans will quickly vote to reopen the government without wall funding. This will happen before the end of next week.

If this doesn't happen, I will turn in my soothsayer's badge.
 

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