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Are the presidential election results real? Or simply a simulation?

 
 
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:25 am


USA Today is offering the results of the presidential election of US. With words of "plot the paths" and "We offer plausible scenarios", it seems that the currect results (Hillary Clinton: 202 electoral votes and Donald Trump 164 votes) are simply estimated numbers, not real results. Because CNN hasn't showed up any results.

Please confirm me. Thanks in anticipation.

USA Today's current results

Plot the paths for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton to clinch the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. We offer plausible scenarios along with a wide-open map where you can chart your own course.
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Type: Question • Score: 11 • Views: 12,294 • Replies: 433

 
View best answer, chosen by oristarA
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 10:01 am
@oristarA,
It is a simulation. They are making a guess based on polls and modeling.

There will be no real election results until at least 7:30pm EST tonight.


oristarA
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 10:22 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

There will be no real election results until at least 7:30pm EST tonight.


With four hours to go?
maxdancona
  Selected Answer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 10:29 am
@oristarA,
The election is run state by state.

The rule (that Networks follow) is that no results of any kind will be released for a state until the polls close for that state. That means the for the states that close the polls at 7:30 (which include the all important North Carolina) you will see results shortly after.

There are two types of results you will see tonight.

There are exit polls. These are not official, but are generally pretty accurate since they ask people leaving the polls (i.e. real voters) who they just voted for. The exit polls are conducted throughout the day and are released by the network as polls close.

Then there are the official results that are tabulated by the machines. These generally take an hour or two to start trickling in. These are released as they are counted.

So yes. Starting at 7:30 you will hear exit polls for some very important states that will give you a good picture of who is doing well and whose constituents are coming out to vote (i.e. if lots of Latinos are voting, you can assume a very good result for Clinton). Shortly after you will hear the official results.

So yes, if the election is very lopsided, they may even announce a winner before everyone has voted.

snood
 
  4  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 10:40 am
@oristarA,
oristarA wrote:

maxdancona wrote:

There will be no real election results until at least 7:30pm EST tonight.


With four hours to go?

As max says, yes it is possible to accurately predict the final outcome with several hours left, if certain key states' results are clear enough to call them early. For instance if the majority of precincts have reported in NC and FLA and there aren't enough precincts left to alter the outcome, we may see a victor named relatively early in the evening. That's what I'm hoping for. I think I still have vestiges of the indigestion problems I got while waiting for the final result of the 2000 presidential election.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 12:37 pm
@maxdancona,
Even with the exit polls, though, gotta be somewhat careful.

The exit polls are adjusted over the night as more results come in (and are traditionally harmonized with the actual results at the end of the night). The first round of exit poll results will give you a general sense of who's clearly ahead where and where it's close, but can still be off by quite a bit.

In 2004, for example, the first wave of exit polls was almost exactly right in five states (Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Louisiana and Arizona); but it was way, way off on another few states, showing huge double digit leads for Kerry in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Hampshire that never materialized.
0 Replies
 
Fil Albuquerque
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 12:39 pm
Guys what are the pools saying at this moment right now ? I can't wait for news...
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 03:36 pm
Even after the polls have closed in any particular state, the times it takes to tabulate the votes will vary from state to state. Although you may have more than one state having their polls closed at the same time. One state may tabulate their vote counts faster than another. You have machine ballots, you have paper ballots, or whatever type of ballots the different states are using. Also, even if the polls have closed in a particular state, people who are still in line will be permitted to vote. If you were in line prior to the poll closing, you will be allowed to vote. There may be be people still voting after the polls have already closed, because they are still in line waiting to vote.
oristarA
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 06:38 pm
@Real Music,
CNN is saying that Hillary Clinton campaign is growing increasingly confident of reaching 270 electoral votes. But has anyone here seen the concrete data? Where to find such data?

maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 07:08 pm
@oristarA,
No.

The campaigns hire their own statisticians. They own the data and the analysis. No one will see the data unless they choose to make it public.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 07:35 pm

A very good way to get FAST news of key state victories (and when the total race is called) tonight is:
http://www.breakingnews.com

This webpage will very likely be quicker than *any* TV coverage. They also have an app.

For what it's worth, my eye appears to be OK, although it is as itchy as **** (insert profanity of choice) and I do not dare itch it.
Glennn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 08:06 pm
@oralloy,
What is the problem with your eye?
oristarA
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 08:21 pm
Is it now 1:19AM of November 9, Eastern Standard Time in the United States?
Have all voting stations been closed nationwide by now?
oralloy
 
  0  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 08:22 pm
@Glennn,
I had cataract surgery this morning after I voted.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 08:27 pm
@oristarA,
Not even close. In California it is only 6:27 PM and they are a very large state.

It is often the case that the winner of the nationwide race is known before California polls even close.

I forget the time difference to Hawaii and Alaska, but Hawaii at least will have polls open for many more hours.
0 Replies
 
oristarA
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:11 pm
This is a stunned moment: History will remember it:

presidential results (CNN)

trump139
49.0% votes
30,907,729

clinton104
46.9% votes
29,638,380
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:20 pm
@oristarA,
Those are meaningless numbers at this point. It is still to early. Remember that some of the big states for Clinton, like California, haven't been counted yet. All of the states that have been called so far have gone as expected.

To analyze what is happening, you have to look state by state with an understanding of the politics of each state. The big story so far is that Florida will go to Trump.

The way I see it (looking at the state data) Clinton is still winning the states she needs to win (i.e. Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia). But, with Florida almost certainly going to Trump, and North Carolina looking iffy... things will be a lot closer for her than our side wants.

Fil Albuquerque
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:20 pm
I am appalled with the results so far. It seams hypocrite America is in great shape atm. Speak one way vote another. The shy racists and nativists are doing great. Tell you one thing if Trump wins America credibility world wide will have a fast decline in less then a decade. Good for China and Russia. We the Europeans have to suck it up.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:30 pm
@maxdancona,
They just gave Ohio to Trump. Ohio is a swing state (it is one that could go either way). This is going to be close. On the good side, Colorado is pretty clear going to Clinton.

By the way... Nate Silver at 538 is being vindicated pretty big time.

maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Nov, 2016 09:32 pm
@maxdancona,
It looks like Virginia and Michigan (both swing states) are going to Clinton. This is going to be tight.
 

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