26
   

I just got my flu shot, have you?

 
 
chai2
 
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:05 pm
A public service reminder.

http://www.sunsethomeservices.org/Portals/0/Graphics/rosie_the_riveter2%20copy.jpg
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Type: Discussion • Score: 26 • Views: 9,269 • Replies: 158

 
Zeke
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:12 pm
@chai2,
Why? It's completely worthless. Unless of course you have a desire to fund the pharmaceuticals with your money. It just gives you more risk and complications.

Flu isn't the big risk, even the government knows that.
Eat right, Work out, and don't buy into the government propaganda, and it'll set you good for the winter.
chai2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:13 pm
@Zeke,
Zeke wrote:

Why? It's completely worthless. Unless of course you have a desire to fund the pharmaceuticals with your money. It just gives you more risk and complications.

Flu isn't the big risk, even the government knows that.
Eat right, Work out, and don't buy into the government propaganda, and it'll set you good for the winter.


You're funny
0 Replies
 
Zeke
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:14 pm
@Zeke,
If you think I'm lying and making it up. Here's the evidence from last year.
http://www.npr.org/2011/10/28/141800408/analysis-questions-flu-shot-effectiveness
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:20 pm
@Zeke,
from your link

Quote:
Really the best news in this entire study was that among those studies of children, all eight studies, the live attenuated vaccine in children under eight years of age actually worked quite well. It was consistent protection. The pool, the average protection level was 83 percent.

Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:21 pm
@ehBeth,
I see it as unnecessarily exposing myself to the flu.

and the drug companies...

but to each his own self.
Zeke
 
  0  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:27 pm
@ehBeth,
And you you must be in the category of "children?"

Sure, children and old geezers may benefit somewhat due to their weaker immune system. Teens to young adults to upper middle aged individuals with a normal functioning immune system largely do not need this vaccine.
chai2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:27 pm
@ehBeth,
plus it's pointed out more than once that at worst case, it's protect 59 to 69% of the people who get it.

I guess what I choose to spend my money on is my business.

I just got my flu shot, have you?
chai2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:28 pm
@Zeke,
Zeke wrote:

And you you must be in the category of "children?"

Sure, children and old geezers may benefit somewhat due to their weaker immune system.


Actually, if you read your own link, it addresses that it's less effective with those over 65.



Zeke
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 02:30 pm
@chai2,
Goes for my argument. It's not helpful then, you see.
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:25 pm
@Zeke,
Which goes against your argument I addressed in your previous post. Rolling Eyes

Care to address the overall 59% to 69% effectiveness that was stated in your link, or, is that in your mind, equated to 0%?

chai2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:27 pm
@Rockhead,
Rockhead wrote:

I see it as unnecessarily exposing myself to the flu.




That's an old myth my friend. The vaccine does not expose you to the flu.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:30 pm
@Zeke,
read your own link
Region Philbis
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:34 pm

getting mine sometime in october, through work as part of my medical coverage...

R(if it's free, it's for me)P
0 Replies
 
chai2
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:38 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

read your own link


Smells like troll to me.
Reyn
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:39 pm
@chai2,
My wife and I will be getting ours in October.

We both get it for free. Me, for the cancer history, and my wife, because she lives with me. Smile
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  3  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:56 pm
Depends on how bad they are forecasting flu season to be. I don't get them to protect me, I get them to protect BBB from anything I might become a carrier for.

I also wait until mid October to get them so it will last through the holidays when I'm exposed to more than just the dog park and grocery store people.

If it was just me, I'd not get it at all due to the mild reaction I always get from the preservatives. I dread it every year for that reason.
0 Replies
 
Zeke
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 03:59 pm
@chai2,
Quote:
Well, first of all, the overall effect of the trivalent inactivated vaccine, which is the shot that we think about, it's the one that has been around largely unchanged for a number of decades. And in that case, when we look at that, in eight of 12 vaccine seasons, or we study influenza during influenza season, we found that the vaccine was protective, so in two-thirds of the studies.

And when it was protective, it was protective at about a 59-percent rate across all the different studies. When we looked for live attenuated vaccine, the puff that goes up the nose that has been around more recently, there we could not identify any studies that either from an observational disease - or observational study standpoint or from an actual vaccine randomized control trial standpoint, showed that the vaccine was effective.


Two thirds of the study show it was protective, and when it was protective only 59 percent rate across these different studies.
2/3=66.6 and 3/5 =0.6 So let's say the probability of both the study succeeding, and that in that study there is success rate happening to be on average 63%. And since the probability that the study shown that the flu vaccine was successful is 2/3. The conditional probability is 0.95.
If both these events are dependent, then the probability that a success rate occurs given that the study shows it is already occurred. So the conditional probability is 0.95*0.66*100% = 63%

So on average the study shows that the vaccine prevents flu 63% of the time.
Quote:
Well, first of all, the overall effect of the trivalent inactivated vaccine, which is the shot that we think about, it's the one that has been around largely unchanged for a number of decades. And in that case, when we look at that, in eight of 12 vaccine seasons, or we study influenza during influenza season, we found that the vaccine was protective, so in two-thirds of the studies.

And when it was protective, it was protective at about a 59-percent rate across all the different studies. When we looked for live attenuated vaccine, the puff that goes up the nose that has been around more recently, there we could not identify any studies that either from an observational disease - or observational study standpoint or from an actual vaccine randomized control trial standpoint, showed that the vaccine was effective.


Two thirds of the study show it was protective, and when it was protective only 59 percent rate across these different studies.
2/3=66.6 and 3/5 =0.6 So let's say the probability of both the study succeeding, and that in that study there is success rate happening to be on average 63%. And since the probability that the study shown that the flu vaccine was successful is 2/3. The conditional probability is 0.95.
If both these events are dependent, then the probability that a success rate occurs given that the study shows it is already occurred. So the conditional probability is 0.95*0.66*100 = 63%

So on average the study shows that the vaccine prevents flu 63% of the time. Not really significant, because the study is a correlation of variables such as one's own immune system. Not impressive at all.


Further more.

Quote:
Because I think that, first of all, I want to be really clear. I'm not saying the glass is half-full or half-empty. It's a very straightforward point. If we talk about the vaccine doing its very best, when it's closely matched to the circulating strain, the H1N1 pandemic vaccine was as close a match as we've had for almost 40 years, meaning that the strain did not change in any measurable way that should or could impact vaccine effectiveness.

And all we're pointing out is even with that, we still only got 59 to 69 percent.


I'm not impressed at all. If it was an 80% to 90% success rate, then I'd agree with you.
Butrflynet
 
  5  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 04:02 pm
@Zeke,
Given the choice of 63% prevention vs. 0% prevention, I'll take the 63% if it means keeping my elderly mother safer from any flu bugs going around.
Zeke
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Sep, 2012 04:04 pm
@Butrflynet,
Have you forgotten that you have an immune system?
You have about the same chance of your immune system naturally making the antibody and succeeding to resist sickness than this vaccine's antibodies.
 

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