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The Winding Road To The Republican Nomination For President

 
 
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 02:46 pm
The convention will be in Tampa starting August 27th. Who will emerge as the challenger to President Obama?
I don't know.
The purpose of this thread is to follow the progress of the process. The primaries, the caucuses, the polls and the steps or missteps of the contenders.
There are lots of races coming up. We are looking for reporters in places where you may live.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 33 • Views: 25,543 • Replies: 411

 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:02 pm
A candidate needs 1144 delegates to win the nomination. How many have been awarded so far is more than a bit spongy. The media seems to have settled on
Romney (99); Santorum (47); Gingrich (32); Paul (20).
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:21 pm
15% of delegates to the Republican convention were scheduled to be awarded prior to Super Tuesday. It turned out to be 11% because some states went too early - but they will likely end up not being penalized.
An additional 19% will be passed out through the 3/6 Super Tuesday. That 15% + 19% = 34%.
17% of delegates will be awarded in the rest of March and
21% in April; 12% in May and 15% in June.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:30 pm
The idea of a "contested" convention is gaining a bit of traction. That would happen if no candidate has garnered 1144 delegates on the first vote.
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  3  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:34 pm
on the eve of the convention, Romney will die of boredom, Gingrich will be in a body cast on life support after having been crushed by the weight of his own ego, Santorrum will be discovered to have had a long time homosexual affair (during which time he not only used condoms with his partner but procured him two abortions) and Paul will have been abducted by aliens

when the dust settles, the republican candidates will be none other than McCain and Palin

Obama romps to victory in November

the Civil War starts in December
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:44 pm
If you are a supporter of Romney, Santorum or Gingrich, you might be a bit pissed that some other candidate might ride in at the last minute to claim the nomination without having fought in the trenches.
The notion has been raised that if there is an alternative candidate, he or she should participate in some of the late primaries.
Some deadlines for getting on Republican primary ballots: Montana (3/12); New Mexico (3/16); California (3/23); South Dakota (3/27); New Jersey (4/2).
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 03:52 pm
@djjd62,
The name that I keep hearing as the White Knight coming in to save the Republicans is:
(oops. phone ringing. Guess - and I will be back in an hour)
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 04:30 pm
Chris Christie
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 04:31 pm
@edgarblythe,
he makes good cookies Wink
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 04:52 pm
The name Jeb Bush keeps popping up.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 05:50 pm
Hopefully Jeb will not be a factor. HopeIhopeIhopeIhope.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 07:16 pm
@edgarblythe,
I haven't followed Jeb's career, but the Bush name doesn't seem to have a lot of curb appeal. Most of us are simply not into dynasties.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Feb, 2012 07:19 pm
@roger,
Both Bushes were not popular at the end of their terms. I can envision nothing else for Jeb. Hopefully, most Americans see it the same as me, regardless of their leaning.
0 Replies
 
hingehead
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 02:24 am
@realjohnboy,
Are you saying RJB that April 2 is the last chance someone has to throw their hat in the ring, or that it would just be good form?

Trying to put myself in the position one of those who didn't enter into the primaries (because of finance, or to keep your powder dry for 2016 - conceding Obama will be a 2 termer) you'd have to be a master strategist to have guessed the lack of a decisive front runner in the primary at the time everyone announced their candidacy. So I'm guessing that it wasn't the long term plan.

So, a small group of potential dark horses are working with very small teams on possibilities, triggers and strategies, about what needs to happen to make a sudden entry potentiallly successful and at what time. Beyond my brainpower but sounds like a great collection of episodes for the West Wing.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 01:02 pm
To upset the ones who have been running it would have to be a dark horse.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 01:05 pm
According to the bookies Romney is by far the favourite, with Santorum in second place.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/republican-candidate
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 01:07 pm
@RABEL222,
didn't the dark horse(s ass) get out of the campaign already Razz

RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 01:17 pm
@djjd62,
No. Most of the horses asses are still in it.
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 01:20 pm
@RABEL222,
Correct. The earlier candidates did not "drop out." Technically they "suspended their campaigns." There is a difference.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  3  
Reply Mon 20 Feb, 2012 05:05 pm
@hingehead,
Quote:
Are you saying RJB that April 2 is the last chance someone has to throw their hat in the ring, or that it would just be good form?


If the Republican convention is deadlocked, they can pick whomever they want. The hat does not have to be thrown into the ring. The convention can draft a candidate.
0 Replies
 
 

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