16
   

Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 04:48 pm
@hawkeye10,
I was paraphrasing some of the articles I have read. I would certainly suspect that advertising is a lot cheaper there than California or even Delaware.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 05:36 pm
Quote:
But Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan political handicapper, questioned how successful labor’s push will be. “The question is, how effective can labor be when so many of their people are unemployed or underemployed and just not happy campers?” he said. “How effective will they be in getting people to do the hard work — to do the phone banks, the get-out-the-vote, all the heavy lifting?”

Patricia Elizondo, president of the 2,000-member Milwaukee local of the International Association of Machinists, fears just that.

“People are disappointed,” she said. “People have been unemployed for two years, and they’re unhappy that the healthcare bill was not as good as they expected. Two years ago, I had many members going door-to-door to campaign. Now they’re saying, ‘Why should I? We supported that candidate, but he didn’t follow through.’ ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/18/us/18labor.html?_r=1&hp

Union leadership is in real danger of taking a line that the membership does not support. This is membership money being used here, and union leadership has their paychecks only because of the membership. as the country continues to move to the right union leadership will increasingly find it more difficult to justify being Democratic Cheerleaders and funders of their campaigns.
0 Replies
 
JamesMorrison
 
  0  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 06:09 pm
@revelette,
from your Reuters quote -
Quote:
Republicans are headed for big gains in the Senate in the November 2 election, but winning a majority will be difficult, according to poll averages compiled by the website Real Clear Politics.


To conservatives, taking control of the senate would be icing on the cake but not currently necessary. The immediate conservative effort is to stop Obama and the Dem's race towards ever increasing bigger government. Realistically the only hope conservative would have to stop this progressive effort is a conservatively controlled House. Given such, the progressive rush to perdition would be mostly curtailed. I say mostly because of 1) Two months exist for a lame duck congress to do mischief and 2) Government agencies, like the EPA for one, still can promulgate regulations that would simulate progressive legislation such as Cap and Trade and Net Neutrality (FCC).Note that a GOP controlled House is not enough. After 1 Jan 2011, for conservatives to actually make a difference they will need either A) An Obama presidency that, Clinton like, moves drastically to his right or B) to wait until 2013 for a conservatively controlled Congress and, at least, a GOP chief executive. My prediction, given the demonstrated American mood, is that if A doesn't happen B definitely will.

A conservative house has all kinds of ammunition to forestall both Obamacare and Dodd-Frank.

Another prediction: if people think there is a revolution now in the GOP wait for the presidential campaign for 2012. If the DeMint/Palin conservatives are mostly successful in their bids for office do you think conservatives will settle for Romney, the 'moderate' that signed the MA equivalent of Obamacare and flip-flopped on abortion? Sure it is Romney's 'Turn" but that rationale might be as electorially successful as Rep. Castle's Senatorial bid.

There is a caveat to my first sentence in this post and that is that this administration’s amateurish attempts at foreign policy. I am probably being too kind in so describing their efforts here but there is immediacy in correcting Obama's pandering to those who are not our friends. Unfortunately, short of Obama hiring John Bolton (and actually taking his advice) as H. Clinton's boss, I don't see much hope for success, for the Obama Admin, in the foreign policy area. Hopefully the new START treaty will die in this Senate, but, again, 'moderates', such as Dick Lugar (R), are part of the problem.

JM
JamesMorrison
 
  0  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 06:23 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
BREAKING: Murkowski plans to run as write-in candidate


Yeh, if the GOP estab boys had any cojones they would follow up with their threat to strip her of her leadership position which she is now using in her write in campaign as a rationale for her re-election (you know the old bring home the bacon argument). This would also be a great time for the GOP to demonstrate their supposed new found disdain for earmarks, but I'm not holding my breath here. Smile

JM
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 06:35 pm
@JamesMorrison,
Quote:
Another prediction: if people think there is a revolution now in the GOP wait for the presidential campaign for 2012. If the DeMint/Palin conservatives are mostly successful in their bids for office do you think conservatives will settle for Romney, the 'moderate' that signed the MA equivalent of Obamacare and flip-flopped on abortion? Sure it is Romney's 'Turn" but that rationale might be as electorally successful as Rep. Castle's Senatorial bid.
I bet that their will be a Tea Party Caucus, which if they can get to 5% of the house will have a lot of power. They can kill GOP bills, and if the house still somehow stays in the hands of the DEM moderate GOP members will know that voting with the Dems will likely end their career, so the Dems will have great difficulty moving anything. This is fine with the Tea Party, as shutting down Washington is one of the goals.

We are almost certainly headed for a shut down of the government, as the government runs out of money as standard appropriation bills fail to move. Several commentators have predicted this, no matter what the results in NOV are. The only way Obama can stop this, and the tanking of the stock market that this would cause, is to agree to significant shrinkage of the government. And it is not just the money, the mandates must also shrink. Washington must voluntarily give up power if it wants to avoid running out of money. Even if the DEMS keep both houses the GOP will be able to shut down the government, and they will do so.

It is time for the DEMS to wake up and smell the coffee!
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 06:37 pm
@JamesMorrison,
Quote:
, if the GOP estab boys had any cojones they would follow up with their threat to strip her of her leadership position which she is now using in her write in campaign as a rationale for her re-election (you know the old bring home the bacon argument). This would also be a great time for the GOP to demonstrate their supposed new found disdain for earmarks, but I'm not holding my breath here.
Dont be too sure that they wont find their balls finally...the GOP now has a lot of incentive to play nice with the tea party. A grand gesture would not be out of line.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 07:04 pm
This is good

Quote:
The question now is whether a grassroots movement that is, by design, leaderless can sustain itself after this election cycle.

In American politics, radical decentralization has never been tried on so large a scale. Tea party activists believe that their hivelike structure is their signal innovation and secret weapon, the key to outlasting and outmaneuvering traditional political organizations and interest groups. They intend to rewrite the rule book for political organizing, turning decades of established practice upside down. If they succeed, or even half succeed, the tea party's most important legacy may be organizational, not political.

[Complete Coverage: The Tea Party Movement]

From Washington's who's-in-charge-here perspective, the tea party model seems downright bizarre. Perplexed journalists keep looking for the movement's leaders, which is like asking to meet the boss of the Internet. Baffled politicians and lobbyists can't find anyone to negotiate with.

"There's such a uniqueness to every one of these groups, just as there's an individuality to every person," says Dawn Wildman, a national coordinator based in San Diego. "It has this bizarre organic flow, a little bit like lava. It heats up in some places and catches on fire; it moves more slowly in other places."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews_excl/ynews_excl_pl3653;_ylt=AkzAzWdT7Ey0exovqeXMPGms0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTN0NDZyMDl2BGFzc2V0A3luZXdzX2V4Y2wvMjAxMDA5MTYveW5ld3NfZXhjbF9wbDM2NTMEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwM2BHBvcwMzBHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5faGVhZGxpbmVfbGlzdARzbGsDaG93dGhldGVhcGFy

and

Quote:
Listening to tea partiers talk about their ambitions, one hears echoes of leftist movements. Raise consciousness. Change hearts, not just votes. Attack corruption in society, not just on Capitol Hill. In America, right-wing movements have tended to focus on taking over politics, left-wing ones on changing the culture. Like its leftist precursors, the Tea Party Patriots thinks of itself as a social movement, not a political one
Which gets back to while I consider myself to be an extreme leftist I have found that I can get along with and agree more with those who call themselves extreme right wingers than with either traditional GOP or DEMs.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  5  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 08:12 pm
Please let us know, Hawkeye, if you intend to totally derail this thread from its original intent which was to talk about the upcoming elections in a non-partisan way. We succeeded, I think, for about 10 months, using dreary polling data.
You can have this thread if you would like. We can start a new one to get back on topic.
hawkeye10
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 08:21 pm
@realjohnboy,
You should know by now that I am not down with this idea that threads are the fiefdoms of those who start them. I think Robert was thinking of writting code to make that happen, you might check with him to get a estimated date of arrival.
realjohnboy
 
  4  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 08:47 pm
@hawkeye10,
I know that. You can have this one.
Congratulations on killing a long running thread, if that was your goal.

Thanks for becoming my friend, Irishk. It has been a pleasure to get to know you. And thanks to the many of you who have viewed this and written to me via email.
Over to you, Hawkeye.
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 09:48 pm
@realjohnboy,
it's the Tea Party ethos, rjb...
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  2  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2010 05:05 am
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
...
Congratulations on killing a long running thread, if that was your goal.

Thanks for becoming my friend, Irishk. It has been a pleasure to get to know you. And thanks to the many of you who have viewed this and written to me via email.

As one of your faithful readers I hope both you and IrishK will reconsider and I trust that you will, if both Hawkeye and Morrison will face up to the fact they're both misrepresenting the groups they claim to speak for; the former can't belong to the Tea Party, whose main strength is opposition to runaway public expenditures (see e.g. http://able2know.org/topic/144149-11#post-4354069 ) and the latter can have little connection to conservatives, who overwhelmingly loathe neocons like John Bolton - contrary to assertions he makes on this page: http://able2know.org/topic/138210-30#post-4354844 So: if you and IrishK choose to continue I hope both HK and JM will refrain from posting on your thread.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2010 07:47 am
@JamesMorrison,
People have different views on things depending on where they opinion lies. Obviously yours lie in the republican ideology and mine in the democrats.

It is true that polling for the health care reform legislation has been very poor, however, if you look into the polling questions, they don't want to repeal the particulars. I think the reason it and many of the other Obama bills have been polling badly is because his actions and ideas have been demonized very successfully by the tea party IMO and democrats have been way less successful in defending Obama's policies.

Quote:
The decline is relatively modest and you could plausibly explain it away as a reflection of views on other issues. (I.e., if people weren't so down on the economy, they wouldn't be so down on health care reform.) But you certainly can't argue that people are enthusiastic about reform these days, since the numbers were tepid even before the decline. In the latest CBS/New York Times poll, published on Wednesday, just 37 percent of respondents said they approved of the law, while 49 percent said they disapproved.

Still, if you dig deeper into the same poll, you'll find that public sentiment on health care reform is more complicated than those figures suggest. While 40 percent of respondents said they supported repealing the Affordable Care Act, more than half changed their minds (leaving just 19 percent in favor of repeal) when pollsters mentioned that it'd mean letting insurance companies exclude people with pre-existing conditions. ...



source

What the Negative Polls on Obamacare Really Tell Us
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  2  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2010 10:15 am
@realjohnboy,
The pleasure is all mine, rjb. I'll be keeping an eagle eye on the tossups! Great job on all the poll reporting -- your posted predictions are looking good!
0 Replies
 
JamesMorrison
 
  1  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2010 05:51 pm
@realjohnboy,
Quote:
I know that. You can have this one.
Congratulations on killing a long running thread, if that was your goal.

Thanks for becoming my friend, Irishk. It has been a pleasure to get to know you. And thanks to the many of you who have viewed this and written to me via email.
Over to you, Hawkeye.

RJB sorry for my exchange with hawkeye and disrupting your thread. Oh, and good luck to "Robert" and his efforts to produce code that might make Obama appointee Julius Genachowski proud.

Bye.

JM
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Sat 18 Sep, 2010 06:23 pm
@JamesMorrison,
Quote:
RJB sorry for my exchange with hawkeye and disrupting your thread
Was that really necessary?? Indulging control freaks encourages the behaviour, which is not in anyone's best interest. Public debate requires a certain level of tolerance, and while I am all for restraint and allowing discretion to the creator of thread, that is over when the OP demand control, and starts out with threats that he will leave if his demands are not met...now way am I OK with that.

We had a long debate about thread control by the OP when MsOlga was complaining about threads, but she was talking about actually diverting threads into new subjects, and using course language that the thread originator finds objectionable, for instance guys coming and and pissing over everything. I dont fully agree with her, but she has a point, trying to meet the others here half way is the civil thing to do, so when objections are made taking them into account is the right thing to do. Johns desire to rigidly control thread topic is a different thing, and it is not very civil behaviour. I would never go to a meeting, start a subject, and then say at the head in what can and can not be talked about, and threaten to take by ball and go home if everyone else does not agree to me terms. WFT is that all about?? Most of us learned by the time we were 7 YO that this does not get agreed to, as it is offensive behaviour.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Sep, 2010 01:02 pm
Markos Moulitsas via Twitter this morning:

Quote:
New PPP results for dkos, will post tomorrow -- Feingold down by double digits, MASSIVE intensity gap. W/o gap, it'd be tied race.


http://twitter.com/markos/status/25030549094
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Sep, 2010 01:22 pm
New from PPP on California Senate race:

Boxer Leads by 8
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Sep, 2010 01:55 pm
@Irishk,
Many, many new polls as we gear up for the final 6 weeks before November 2nd.

Thank you, Irishk, for taking the time to talk to me about this thread. It has never been my intent to be a "control freak." I started this 10 months ago with the hope that A2K'ers -using polls- would report as objectively as they could on the Senate, House, and Governors' races.
I tried to distinguish this thread from the many other available threads dealing with politics where the thrust is always to praise or disparage a party or movement or a candidate...or a poster here, rather than the "facts" of a poll.
I really thought I could pull that off simply by asking that that objective be respected. How naive.

I acknowledged that I am a Dem but I chose Rasmussen in large part because he is perceived by many to have a Republican bias (please, let's not revisit that discussion and re-discussion which are all many pages ago).

Anyway, I am back. Chastened a bit, but back.

Watch this space tonight or tomorrow for a new "interactive" feature for this thread!
Irishk
 
  2  
Reply Mon 20 Sep, 2010 03:31 pm
Always a pleasure, rjb and wb.

Two polls out on the Lousiana Senate race. One by Dem pollster Bennett, Petts & Normington (this is PPP/Mark Blumenthal's old firm - used to be Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal) showing Vitter leading Melancon 48% - 38%. Republican pollster Magellan shows Vitter with a wider lead, 54-32.

Via Politico
0 Replies
 
 

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