Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

You're back!
Hooray!
Whatta dynamite team!

(I read to follow the "trends". Most of the politicians' mentioned are a wee bit obscure from so far away. Keep up the excellent work, you two!)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143132/Generic-Ballot-Virtually-Tied-Democrats-Republicans.aspx

Cycloptichorn

Close Race in West Virginia

PPP's first look at the West Virginia Senate contest finds a very tight race with John Raese up 46-43 on Joe Manchin, a result within the poll's margin of error.

The contest provides a fascinating choice for voters in the state who love their Democratic Governor but hate the party's ranks in Washington DC that he would be joining.

Manchin is the second most popular Governor PPP has polled on all year, behind only Bobby Jindal, with a 59/32 approval spread. He breaks almost even with Republicans as 42% of them approve of the job he's doing with just 44% disapproving. In a highly polarized political climate the list of politicians with that kind of crossover popularity is very short.

At the same time West Virginians couldn't be much more down on national Democrats. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is just 30% with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Even within his own party barely half of voters, at 51%, like the job he's doing. Support from Republicans (91% disapproval) and independents (73% disapproval) is pretty much nonexistent.

Given the President's high degree of unpopularity it's no surprise that 54% of voters in the state want Republicans to control the next Congress with just 37% wanting the Democrats to stay in charge. GOP voters (91-3) and independents (66-21) are pretty universal in their desire for a Republican majority and even 25% of Democrats say they'd like to see a change.

22% of voters in the state have the competing impulses of both liking Manchin and wanting Republicans to control the next Congress. With those folks Raese leads 57-29 and that's fueling his slight overall advantage.

Despite Manchin's 42% approval rating with Republicans he's getting only 14% of their votes. And in spite of a +8 approval spread with independents, he trails Raese 56-30 with them. Raese also leads 47-41 with another key group- the Democrats that disapprove of Obama.

These poll numbers show a much more favorable race for Raese than anything that's been released publicly to date so I'd suggest caution in declaring too much momentum for the Republicans in West Virginia before other data confirms it. But one thing is definitely clear: this race is not going to be a slam dunk for Democrats as might have been hoped at one time.

NY-29: Big Lead for Reed

Matt Zeller (D): 30
Tom Reed (R): 44
Undecided: 26
MoE: 4%

It is only six weeks until Election Day, however, the race for the open 29th Congressional District seat has not yet grabbed voters’ attention. Republican candidate Tom Reed leads Democrat Matt Zeller 44-30 percent, with one-quarter of voters undecided. Although Reed is viewed as better than Zeller on the issues, at least 40 percent of voters cannot choose between the two on every issue, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Voters are nearly evenly divided on President Obama’s stimulus proposal and offer slim support for his proposal to eliminate tax cuts for the wealthy. They are also split on whether to implement or repeal the recently passed federal health care reform legislation.

“Republican Tom Reed enjoys an early 14-point lead over Democrat Matt Zeller, in what for the moment is a battle of two largely unknown candidates in a district that had been represented – at least for a short time – by a Democrat, but has a significant Republican enrollment edge,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Reed leads among Republicans by 58 points and independent voters by nine points, while Zeller leads among Democrats by 44 points. One-quarter of all voters, however, are still undecided.

More at the link.

California gubernatorial race:

Brown Leads in California

Meg Whitman has spent millions and millions of dollars on her campaign for Governor of California but most voters still don't like her. In large part due to her continuing personal unpopularity she trails Jerry Brown 47-42.

Brown's lead isn't much a function of his own popularity- a plurality of voters in the state view him in a negative light with 42% seeing him favorably and 45% unfavorably. Republicans (86%) are much more strong in their dislike of Brown than Democrats (69%) are in their favor and independents split against him by a 30/55 margin as well.

Whitman, however, is even more unpopular. Only 35% of voters view her in a positive light with 49% seeing her negatively. That's a slight improvement from a 30/50 spread when PPP last polled the race in July but shows Californians still haven't grown particularly found of her.

Whitman is winning independents 45-37 and has her party base pretty much locked up at 84-8. But she's showing very little appeal to Democrats, winning just 12% of their voters and you simply can't win as a Republican in California without showing the ability to get more support across party lines than that.

PPP is finding in Gubernatorial races pretty much everywhere this year that if there's an unpopular outgoing incumbent that person's party is likely to lose the Governor's office. California is just another example of that rule- Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to be the least popular Governor in the country at a 20/69 approval rating and that can't be helping Whitman's prospects for keeping the office in GOP hands.

A lot of Democrats have complained that Brown is not running a particularly active campaign and voters in the state as a whole hold that view as well. Just 35% think Brown is running hard, compared to 74% who say the same for Whitman. But whatever Whitman's doing isn't working well enough and at this point it looks like Brown is in a solid position.

Just saw this. Ms.O...they're a wee bit obscure from close up, too lol!

So many of her commercials come on TV, I think there is a gigantic annoyance factor that people are dealing with. Seriously. Sometimes I'll see 8 of her commercials in a 2-hour period.

Cycloptichorn

That would turn me off, too...especially if they're negative. I like the postings of the funny/interesting ones here...rjb may be cooking something up along those lines...

Democrats lead in five internal polls:

AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (9/13-16, likely voters):
Chad Causey (D): 46
Rick Crawford (R) 44
MoE 4.9%

DE-AL: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/15-18, likely voters):
John Carney (D): 50
Glen Urquhart (R): 32
(MoE: ±4.9%)

FL-25 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/12-19, likely voters):
Joe Garcia (D): 40
David Rivera (R): 33
Craig Porter (W): 2 (The 'W' stands for Whig, srsly.)
Roly Arrojo (T): 2
(MoE: ±4.9%)

GA-08: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/13-15, likely voters):
Jim Marshall (D-inc): 48
Austin Scott (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)

ND-ALGarin Hart Yang for Earl Pomeroy (9/10-12, likely voters):
Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 46
Rick Berg (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats

Michigan gubernatorial race:

Snyder up big

Rick Snyder has the best favorability numbers of any first time Republican candidate for Governor or the Senate PPP has polled anywhere in the country this cycle and given that it's no surprise he holds a 52-31 lead over Virg Bernero.

43% of Michigan voters have a favorable opinion of Snyder with 28% viewing him unfavorably. Most remarkable are his numbers with independents. In a political climate where they look down on most all politicians they see Snyder favorably by more than a 3:1 margin, 53/17. There's no candidate anywhere of either party we've seen with those kinds of numbers in 2010.

WEST VIRGINIA SENATE (9/20):
Republicans see an opportunity to pick up a seat here. Joe Manchin (D), the current Governor, is running against John Raese (R) in a race to fill out the final two years of the late Robert Byrd's term.
Manchin is quite popular as Gov and is not a Washington insider. But he still is vulnerable in a state where President Obama's Approval Rating is much lower than it is nationally.
Rasmussen has Manchin with a 7 point lead in his new poll. That is slightly better, perhaps, than a poll on September 8th. I say "perhaps" because Rasmussen, since Labor Day, ask people with No Opinion which way they are leaning.
Various conservative groups are committing a lot of money to this.

DELAWARE SENATE
The Republicans, with the surprise win by Teaparty movement candidate Christine O'Donnell in the primary, have given the Dems a chance to hold a seat (previously held by VP Joe Biden).
Three recent polls (Rasmussen, PPP and Fox) have Chris Coons (D) up by low to mid double digits.
O'Donnell is also providing considerable fodder to comedians and has been the target of verbal abuse from the likes of Republican Karl Rove.

ALASKA SENATE
The incumbent, Lisa Murkowski, lost the Republican primary to Joe Miller, who was assumed to be an easy winner against Scott McAdams (D).
Murkowski has not gone quietly. She is now running as a Write-In candidate.
A Rasmussen poll (Sep 20) has Miller (R) at 42%, Murkowski at 27% and McAdams at 25%. This has caused some Dems to think that there might be some way that Mukowski could give McAdams a chance.
Dream on. Rasmussen notes that in his poll, people were given a choice between Miller and McAdams. Those are the only two names on the ballot. Miller romps. If given a choice that includes all 3, the results are as shown above. The write in process is easier said then done, so it seems to me that Murkowski's numbers are overstated.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. Wisconsin U.S. Senate. 9/18-9/19, likely voters.

Ron Johnson (R) 52 (43)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 41 (45)

An enormous enthusiasm gap, coupled with a Republican nominee fresh from a decisive primary win and unsullied by the primary process, has catapulted Republican nominee Ron Johnson to a double-digit advantage over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold, according to PPP's poll of the state on behalf of Daily Kos.

More at the link.

In November of 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama swept through the Midwest, winning many states (including Wisconsin) by double digits. Today, the President's numbers are nearly reversed in the Badger State: whereas Obama carried the state 56-42 in 2008, his job approval now is 41%, with 54% expressing disapproval. This is a tendency that has been mimicked throughout the Midwest, and may well explain why this region seems to be the one vexing Democrats the most this cycle.

Washington-9

SurveyUSA, reporting for King5:

Adam Smith (D) 49
Dick Muri (R) 46
MoE 4.1%

Just one month ago, Washington State Congressman Adam Smith was sitting comfortably, winning the August primary by 25 points. But a new KING 5 poll finds the race may be closer than the primary suggested, with Smith's Republican challenger just three points behind.

Stretching from Renton to Tacoma to Olympia, the 9th district has been represented by Smith for 14 years. In the August primary, the Democrat got 51%. But in that election, Republicans split their vote between two candidates and now, it appears the Republican vote has united behind Dick Muri, a former Air Force officer and Pierce County Councilmember.

In our new KING 5 poll, 49% tell SurveyUSA they support Smith; 46% support Muri. That's within the poll's 4.1% margin of error. This race has not been on the national radar screen, but the district did go Republican in the mid 90s, electing Randy Tate.

Noteworthy that Smith has raised more than $600,000 according to the latest federal campaign reports, while Muri has reported raising just about $94,000.

New poll from Quinnipiac on New York governor's race, 9/22/10

Andrew Cuomo 49%
Carl Paladino 43%

Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 - 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Only 18 percent of New York State likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, but they back Paladino 77 - 18 percent.

Cuomo leads 87 - 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino leads 83 - 13 percent among Republicans and 49 - 43 percent among independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

More analysis at the link.

NEW MEXICO GOVERNOR'S RACE:

Martinez (R) leads by 10 in new internal poll.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez’s lead over Democrat Diane Denish has grown to 10 points, and Martinez has also reached the all-important 50 percent threshold, according to a new poll conducted for her campaign.

The poll, conducted Sept. 11-13, had Martinez leading 50 percent to 40 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies.

More at the link.

Alabama-02

The last poll I found for this race (a DCCC internal on 9/7) has Democrat Bobby Bright up by 9 over Republican challenger, Martha Roby.

Rep. Bright has just received the NRA's endorsement:



Link

I don't think we have covered the race for...
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR
Arnold Schwargenegger (R) can not seek seek another term. The race to succeed him is between Meg Whitman (R), the former CEO of Ebay, and Jerry Brown (D), presently the Attorney General of CA.
Polls in the race, as with polls in the Senate race between Barbara Boxer (D-incumbent) and Carly Fiorina (R), the former head of Hewlett-Packard, indicate a toss-up.
Rasmussen (9/22): Brown - 47% vs Whitman - 46%
PPD (D) (9/19): Brown - 47% vs Whitman - 42%
Fox (9/18): Brown - 45% vs Whitman - 45%

Cyclo can talk more about CA politics than can I on the opposite coast. There is, I think, a great deal of frustration there regarding the state's inability to deal with economic woes. The legislature keeps punting on resolving chronic budget deficits.
Brown has had an interesting past. He studied for the priesthood for awhile. He was elected Governor, ran briefly for President, became mayor of the distressed city of Oakland, was involved in Dem party leadership in CA, and is now back as a candidate for Gov.

His dad, nicknamed "Pat," was Gov from the late 1950's through early 1967.
I mention that to tell you this story. Feel free to skip over this. It adds nothing to the discussion.
I got back from VN in mid 1970. I got a good job, which I liked. But by early 1972 I got "itchy feet." I stuck out my thumb (which I had done before as a teenager - but that is another story). I spent 6 months in "traditional" Europe, Yugoslavia and Turkey.
I ended up in Egypt. I met some fellow travelers who I hung out with in Cairo and Luxor. In due course, the 3 of them headed back to Europe while I was aimed towards Sudan and points south.
We decided to dress up as decently as we could and go to a fancy hotel bar in Luxor for a farewell beer. The staff, not particularly happy to see us, put us at a table way back in the far corner. That was fine with us; we knew our cheap clothes and bad haircuts did not fit their standards.
So this lady walks up to our table and introduces herself as Mrs Pat Brown. She said she was curious about who we were. After a bit of talk, she invited us to join her and her husband for supper. They were a very gracious couple, engaging me and my friends from Scotland, New Zealand and Austria in amusing conversation.
My friends had no idea that Pat Brown was the former Gov of CA. He was a bit self-important and, in the course of the conversation, dropped the name of a somewhat controversial/nefarious character whose name I now forget. I knew the story of this guy and stupidly said that I did. Mr Brown perhaps didn't hear what I said but Mrs Brown did. She delivered a kick under the table intended to get him to change the subject. But it glanced off my shin on its way to her intended target. She and I laughed. And they picked up the check.

Great story, rjb...especially that last part lol.

This just in from Delaware...

Castle Isn't Ruling Out Write-In Campaign

I'm not sure if this would bleed more votes from O'Donnell or Coons. He probably should (and will) go ahead and do it if he's such a shoe-in, though. As the article states, he has until September 30th to decide.

I'm glad I didn't, RJB.
Very funny.
You tell a good yarn, you know!

OK, back to business .....
Excuse my digression, please.