Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

there has been a sh*t load of money spent on the washington senate race, I have seen as many as 16 commercials an hour on TV, but Murray is now rated a 80+% chance of winning. I doubt the GOP has any chance of the senate without Dino Rossi.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

Murray has about an 18 point advantage on Intrade. The latest SurveyUSA poll showed her tied with Rossi, 47-47, and a poll from Univ. of Washington had her up 6 over Rossi. Her latest internals showed her with a +4 lead. Will be one to watch.

0 Replies

Nate Silver ... Tsunami Scenario?

Quote:

Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.

Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away — winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats. Seven seats in New York State changed hands; so did six in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio and four in North Carolina. Party luminaries like Jim Oberstar and Raul Grijalva were defeated. Barney Frank and Dennis Kucinich survived, but they did so by just 2 points apiece, and their elections weren’t called until 1 a.m. Democrats picked up just one Republican-held seat — the open seat in Delaware — but Joseph Cao somehow survived in his very Democratic-leaning district in New Orleans. Virtually every race deemed to be a tossup broke to the Republican.

The news isn’t much better in the Senate. The Democratic candidates in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Illinois all lost, flipping those seats to red from blue. So did Harry Reid in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia; both of them lost by 7 points, in fact. Washington State isn’t finished counting its ballots, but Dino Rossi has about a 30,000-vote lead over Patty Murray, and looks likely to prevail. California isn’t done counting either, and the race between Barbara Boxer and Carly Firoina remains too close to call. It might not matter anyway: Joseph I. Lieberman has scheduled a press conference for later that afternoon, and is expected to announce that — after seeing the strength of the mandate the voters have given the G.O.P. — he’ll begin conferencing with Republicans when Congress reconvenes in January.

Full article at link.

0 Replies

Obama democrats have earned the wrath of the American voter and their replacements
will meet the same fate if they do not put this constitutional republic back on track.

0 Replies

Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday

0 Replies

Patty Murray dropped 31 points on Intrade overnight, while Dino Rossi gained 9. Shocked

PPP released a poll today showing Rossi up by 2...but that's the only thing I can find to account for the sudden swing.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

HOUSE PREDICTIONS:|
Current Make-up: Dems 256 Repubs 179 = 77 seat Dem margin

EPro: Dems 194 Repubs 241 = 47 seat Repub margin (62 seat Repub gain)
Cook: Dems 196 Repubs 239 = 43 seat Repub margin (60 seat Repub gain)
Enten*: Dems 200 Repubs 235 = 35 seat Repub margin (56 seat Repub gain)
Sabato: Dems 201 Repubs 234 = 33 seat Repub margin (55 seat Repub gain)
Rudin: Dems 215 Repubs 220 = 5 seat Repub margin (41 seat Repub gain)
Silver: Dems 203 Repubs 232 = 19 seat Repub margin (53 seat Repub gain)
Gallup: Dems 196 Repubs 239 = 43 seat Repub margin (60 seat Repub gain)
RCP: Dems 189 Repubs 246 = 57 seat Repub margin (67 seat Repub gain)
Georgeob: Dems 212 Repubs 223 = 11 seat Repub margin (44 seat Repub gain)
Cyclo**: Dems 218 Repubs 217 = 1 seat Dem margin (38 seat Repub gain)
JohnBoy: Dems 206 Repubs 229 = 23 seat Repub margin (50 seat Repub gain)

*Enten is the kid from Dartmouth Irishk introduced us to.
** I assigned numbers to Cyclo based on his long-standing prediction that the Dems would hold on to a majority.

Please feel free to quote/edit this post to add other pollsters or add you own predictions.

I updated this 11/1 to add Gallup and RCP. In reading the narratives accompanying the polls it is interesting to note what I see as last minute waffling. The pollsters/pundits are each offering some very wide ranges of outcomes in the House.

The Silver article was interesting but deep down from the headline is the comment that it is the 1st of 2 articles, this one on the prospect of a Republican tsunami. Another article (coming out today?) promises to talk about an outcome somewhat, perhaps, more palatable to Dems.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

rjb, The reason many democrats are unhappy with Obama is they "believe" Obama increased income taxes for the middle class. There's nothing anybody can do when the majority doesn't understand the facts.

0 Replies

Intrade is favoring a tie for the Senate. Huge change in just the last few days.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Quote:

Intrade is favoring a tie for the Senate. Huge change in just the last few days.

interesting...my first guess is that they factored in a chance that the Dems would find a way to convince their supporters to bother to vote, but that as the clock runs out with no sign that the Dems are being successful the chances diminish, along with the chances for pro dem vote result. Remember, it was a week ago that the DEM talking points had it the the Dems were getting fired up, an assertion that was not supported by independent observers.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

The Democrats keeping control of the Senate was heavily favored on Intrade up until a few days ago. Charlie Cook (along with most other analysts) doesn't think the Senate is in play at all in this election, but suggests it will flip in 2012. He could be right since the Democrats, I think, will have 20+ seats to defend in the next couple of elections.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

(Cook) suggests (the Senate) will flip in 2012. He could be right since the Democrats, I think, will have 20+ seats to defend in the next couple of elections.

I have heard that, but I will probably take a hiatus from that for all of 6 or 8 months! Tomorrow I will shred 50 pages of notes.

I think that I will now be turning to what happens after tomorrow. The new relationship between Obama and the Dems vs the Repubs will be big. Equally large will be what happens between the established Repub leadership and the newbies who don't feel beholden to that leadership.
I am hopeful that one of our thoughtful Repub colleagues here could start a thread about what I believe will be a fight for control of the Repub party.
I hope that, if it happens, it will be as low profile as we have managed to keep this thread.
As an aside, Irishk, the referendum on instituting an income tax in WA state. Will it pass, do you think?

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

As an aside, Irishk, the referendum on instituting an income tax in WA state. Will it pass, do you think?

The latest polls (U.WA 10/29) show it losing by 11 points among likely voters and down 6 points by all voters. Looks like a Ballmer vs. Gates showdown, with Ballmer winning.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Good ! Washington overall is already a fairly high tax state with big time fees for registering a vehicle, high property taxes and a sales tax among the highest in the country. Its economy is doing relatively well now, and it appears hard (to me at least) to rationalize a major new tax now.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

... I will probably take a hiatus from that for all of 6 or 8 months! Tomorrow I will shred 50 pages of notes.

I am hopeful that one of our thoughtful Repub colleagues here could start a thread about what I believe will be a fight for control of the Repub party....

Sincere thanks to you and IrishK for this informative, well-run thread. I doubt you'll get any Republicans to start a discussion on the fight for control of the party - we tend to conduct our bloodletting offstage, somewhat in the manner of Greek tragedy. Goodbye, and thank you both again.

0 Replies

Thank you for the kind words, High Seas. I'd also like to add my thanks to all who contributed to rjb's thread with additional info or corrections. Today's the day!!

In other news ~

Nate Silver has presented us with another "what if" scenario -- 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House.

(He's still predicting a 54-55-seat takeover by the GOP)

0 Replies

ElectionProjection has made a last minute change to their House forecast, predicting the GOP will now gain 64 seats (up 2 from a few days ago). I can't get anything but the front page to load no matter which browser I use, so not sure of the reasoning behind this change...just putting it here for a 'day after' reference.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

E-Pro moved a race in NM and VA from Weak Dem to Weak Repub in the House.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

If my gut feeling is reliable, I think more races are going to come out that way.

0 Replies

wonderful thread; a ton of kudos you two.

0 Replies

Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know