Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Yeah. I can't see McMahon winning in CT. I was surprised to see it listed as in play.

The Backlash Myth
By DAVID BROOKS
Published: September 16, 2010

Many of my liberal friends are convinced that the Republican Party has a death wish. It is sprinting to the right-most fever swamps of American life. It will end up alienating the moderate voters it needs to win elections.


There’s only one problem with this theory. There is no evidence to support it. The Republican Party may be moving sharply right, but there is no data to suggest that this has hurt its electoral prospects, at least this year.

I asked the election guru Charlie Cook if there were signs that the Tea Party was scaring away the independents. “I haven’t seen any,” he replied. I asked another Hall of Fame pollster, Peter Hart, if there were Republican or independent voters so alarmed by the Tea Party that they might alter their votes. He ran the numbers and found very few potential defectors.

By Karen Tumulty
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 16, 2010; 11:41 PM


The playbook for winning the Republican presidential nomination begins with a set of inviolable rules: Start early, raise millions, build an organization, and trudge across the country seeking the blessing of mayors and money men.


But in a world where the most careful plans can be rendered obsolete by a Sarah Palin tweet (see: Primary, Delaware), many in the party have begun to question whether those old, pre-"tea party" rules still apply

In emails obtained by WNYMedia.net and verified for their authenticity, Paladino was caught forwarding racial messages about President Obama, birther claims, pornography, and bestiality. When confronted about his emails, Paladino blamed the Democrats. Paladino’s big outside-the-box policy idea is to construct prison dorms for welfare recipients.

But perhaps what has made Paladino most loved among his base is his fervent, angry opposition to the Islamic center project near Ground Zero. He has called Park 51 an “affront to the American people” and claimed “it’s about the Islamists wanting to illustrate that they have conquered America by taking down the World Trade Center.” If elected governor, Paladino has pledged he would use the power of eminent domain to take the site.

Paladino’s radical, divisive, and disturbing record isn’t setting well with one of New York’s most famous Republicans — former Sen. Alfonse D’Amato. “He is dangerous, at the least, he is mean spirited and he tries to divide people,” D’Amato told WCBS 880′s Peter Haskell. Along with former New York City Mayor Ed Koch and former State Comptroller Carl McCall, D’Amato also signed his name to an open letter declaring Paladino unfit for office:

The victory of Carl Paladino in the Republican Primary was a disappointing day for all New Yorkers. This state has a long history of electing highly qualified, forward-looking statewide candidates — both Democrats and Republicans. Yesterday, however, anger overcame reason and enabled a fringe element to choose the Republican nominee. The end result was the selection of Mr. Paladino, a divisive figure simply not fit to lead this great state.

At a time when we need leaders who can bring New Yorkers together, Mr. Paladino practices a destructive brand of politics that will divide our state. […]

We need a governor who can take on the special interests, not one who is a special interest. We also need a governor who will bring New Yorkers together to take on our common challenges, not drive us apart. Through his own words and actions Carl Paladino has proven himself unfit to serve as Governor – he is exactly the wrong person to lead our state.

D’Amato is a hardcore Republican. His opposition to Paladino is just further evidence of the growing cleavage within the GOP among its right-wing fringe and its leadership.

Update Paladino called former New York Republican Gov. George Pataki a "degenerate idiot."

Now that I have the link, I'll bookmark Rollins' column... Please share, if you're comfortable doing so, any predictions or info you're privy to ...

- Always fire first
- Always assume your candidate hasn’t told you everything and what he hasn’t told you will come out
- If your candidate says “Don’t worry, I can raise the money”, worry – and demand to be paid up front
- Don’t let the polls drive you nuts. And if you don’t believe the numbers, order a new poll
- Don’t tell your candidate what to believe; tell him how to say it
- If your candidate doesn’t believe in anything, don’t do the campaign; he’s going to lose
- If your candidate doesn’t listen to you, quit; he’s a goner
- Never get into a pissing match with the person or persons who sleep with your candidate
- Never let your candidate control the spending – especially if it’s his own money
- If you think things can’t get any worse, relax; they can and they will

Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 - 35 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, while President Barack Obama has a 60 - 38 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 58 - 37 percent margin, likely Ohio voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes President Obama's policies, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. And by 49 - 31 percent, voters want Republicans rather than Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

This is the first general election survey of likely voters in Ohio in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Reuters) - Republicans are headed for big gains in the Senate in the November 2 election, but winning a majority will be difficult, according to poll averages compiled by the website Real Clear Politics.

Republicans must sweep nearly all the competitive races to pick up the 10 seats needed for a majority in the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 59-41 edge.

The polls show Republicans leading in races that could give them a net gain of six seats, which would leave Democrats with a 53-47 edge.

The path to a majority grew harder for Republicans on Tuesday when conservative "Tea Party" favorite Christine O'Donnell won the Republican Senate primary in Delaware against popular nine-term U.S. Representative Michael Castle.

Castle had been expected to cruise to an easy win in November against Democrat Chris Coons, but Coons is now favored against O'Donnell. The first two polls in the state after the primary showed Coons with a double-digit lead.

In the House of Representatives the Real Clear Politics averages show Republicans with a slight edge. Republicans lead with 205 seats to 193 for Democrats, with 37 contests considered toss-ups in the battle for a 218-seat majority.

Republicans must pick up 39 Democratic seats to claim House control in November.

Here is a look at the Real Clear Politics poll averages in the most competitive Senate races, with the party currently holding the seat in parenthesis.

* California (Democrat) - Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer leads Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by 1.4 percentage points.

* Colorado (Democrat) - Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic Senator Michael Bennet by 1.8 percentage points.

* Delaware (Democrat) - Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Christine O'Donnell by 11 and 16 percentage points in the first two polls taken after Tuesday's primary.

* Florida (Republican) - Republican Marco Rubio leads independent Charlie Crist by 9.8 percentage points, with Democrat Kendrick Meek trailing.

* Illinois (Democrat) - Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 2 percentage points.

* Kentucky (Republican) - Republican Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by 8.4 percentage points.

* Missouri (Republican) - Republican Roy Blunt leads Democrat Robin Carnahan by 6 percentage points.

* Nevada (Democrat) - Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid leads Republican challenge

* New Hampshire (Republican) - Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Paul Hodes by 8.4 percentage points.

* Ohio (Republican) - Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 9.2 percentage points.

* Pennsylvania (Democrat) - Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 9 percentage points.

* Washington (Democrat) - Democratic Senator Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi by 2 percentage points.

* Wisconsin (Democrat) - Democratic Senator Russ Feingold leads likely Republican challenger Ron Johnson by 1 percentage point.

Republicans also hold commanding leads in three Democratic-held states -- Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota.

September 17, 2010

THE OTHER RACE IN DELAWARE.... There's been considerable interest in Delaware's Republican Senate primary this week, and with good reason -- it's not often a key Republican pick-up opportunity becomes a Democratic opportunity overnight.

But reader R.S. emails a good question:

I am out here [location redacted], so I don't know much about Delaware, but I do know Castle was their member of the House of Representatives.

Quote:

All the focus has been on the Senate race. Who is running to replace Castle in the House? Democratic pickup in the offing?

It's an interesting story, actually. In the open U.S. House race, with Mike Castle (R) giving up his seat for an unsuccessful Senate race, the Republican Party rallied behind a candidate named Michelle Rollins, a wealthy attorney named to the NRCC's "Young Guns" program and the beneficiary of campaign checks from every member of the House Republican leadership. Democrats, meanwhile, rallied to former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D), setting up a competitive contest.

But the same GOP primary voters who nominated Christine O'Donnell for the U.S. Senate weren't impressed with the establishment's choice for the House, and they nominated real estate developer and Tea Party favorite Glen Urquhart.

There aren't many "red" House seats Dems hope to flip this year, but this is clearly one of them. A survey this week from Public Policy Polling showed Carney leading Urquhart by double digits, 48% to 37%

Soon after the NRCC announced its list of 47 races in which it plans to air television ads -- and Urquhart's didn't make the list.

And just to get a sense of what kind of congressional candidate Glen Urquhart is, note that he believes the notion of separation of church and state was crafted, not by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, but by Adolf Hitler. He recently told voters, "[The] next time your liberal friends talk about the separation of church and state, ask them why they're Nazis."

Seriously. He actually said that.

PPP's Dean Debnam noted this week, "Delaware has really worked out well for Democrats."

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, little has changed: each candidate is up 1 point. Under the surface, there is offsetting movement: Clark has reduced slightly Bachman's advantage among men and among Independents, and has gained ground among voters over age 50; Bachman, meantime, is now even with Clark among women and has increased her advantage among middle-aged voters.

The Senate currently has 57 Democrats + 2 Independents = 61. Republicans hold 41 seats.
Here is a list of races that are regarded as being "in play" along with some recent polls:

CALIFORNIA: Barbara Boxer (D) vs Carly Fiorina (R)
.... Fox (9/11): Boxer +2
.... CNN/Time (9/7): Boxer +4
.... Rasmussen (9/6): Fiorina +1
.... Survey/USA (9/1): Fiorina +2
.......... MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Boxer

NEVADA: Harry Reid (D) vs Sharron Angle (R)
.... CNN/Time (9/14): Angle +1
.... Rasmussen (9/13): Tie
.... Reuters (9/12): Reid +2
.... Fox (9/11): Angle +1
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Reid - but not at all sure

WASHINGTON: Patty Murray (D) vs Dino Rossi (R)
.... Rasmussen (9/16): Murray +9
.... CNN/Time (9/14): Murray +9
.... Elway (9/12): Murray +9
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Murray

WISCONSIN: Russ Feingold (D) vs Ron Johnson (R)
.... Rasmussen (9/17): Johnson +7
......... MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): No idea

COLORADO: Michael Bennet (D) vs Ken Buck (R)
.... Rasmussen (9/14): Buck +4
.... POS/FM3 (9/1): Bennet +1
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Buck

ILLINOIS: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R)
.... We Ask America (9/13): Kirk +1
.... Rasmussen (9/7): Kirk +4
.... Chicago Tribune (9/1): Tie
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Giannoulias - but I am guessing

PENNSYLVANIA: Joe Sestek (D) vs Pat Toomey (R)
.... Rasmussen (9/13): Toomey +8
.... Fox (9/11): Toomey +6
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Toomey - easily

CONNECTICUT: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Linda McMahon (R)
.... Quinnipiac (9/12): Blumenthal + 6
.... Rasmussen (9/9): Blumenthal +9
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Blumenthal

WEST VIRGINIA: Joe Manchin (D) vs John Raese (R)
.... Rasmussen (9/8): Manchin +5
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/16): Manchin

FLORIDA: Marco Rubio (R) vs Kendrick Meek (D) vs Charlie Crist (I)
.... CNN/Time (9/7): Rubio 36% Meek 34% Crist 34%
.... Voter Survey Service (9/7): Rubio 43% Meek 23% Crist 29%
.... Reuters (9/10): Rubio 40% Meek 23% Crist 26%
.... Fox (9/11): Rubio 43% Meek 21% Crist 27%
.... Rasmussen (9/14): Rubio 41% Meek 23% Crist 30%
........ MY PICK: Johnboy (9/17): Rubio by 3% over Crist

Please feel free to quote this thread in order to use it as a template for adding other polls or for posting your picks.

On black radio stations in cities such as Philadelphia, Cincinnati and St. Louis, it sounds a lot like 2008. It's not the music, it's the message.

Aiming to tap into President Obama's off-the-charts approval rating among blacks, the Democratic National Committee has dusted off the presidential campaign's logo, lingo and grass-roots strategy to get them to the polls this November.

Democrats are betting that if the midterms are a referendum on Obama, they like their odds with African Americans. So in print and radio ads airing in urban areas in battleground states, they've made the midterms all about Obama.

The message is simple: "Stand With President Obama. Vote November 2."

September 17, 2010
BREAKING: Murkowski plans to run as write-in candidate
Posted: September 17th, 2010 05:16 PM ET
(CNN) – Sources with knowledge of her decision tell CNN that Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is expected to announce tonight she will run as a write-in candidate in the November election, in a bid to keep her seat.

A Republican source tells CNN's John King that Sen. Murkowski has informed "a few" close colleagues on the hill that she will run as a
write-in candidate.

She was defeated in last month's primary by one-time longshot Joe Miller, an attorney backed by many in the tea party movement, and by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

But she has great name recognition and advertising in Alaska is relatively cheap.