Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Rasmussen nailed the 2008 election pretty much dead on. I chose him partially because of that and also for the reasons cited above regarding my perceived objectivity here. It seems to me that, if you want to follow polls, you need to jump on one pony and ride it all the way through. No switching from Rasmussen to Fox or CNN mid-race. Each have different metrics.

Glad you didn't choose Newsweek lol.

One more race while wating for new polling data.

New Hampshire (2/11)
Judd Gregg (R) is retiring after 3 terms as a Senator. Considered a social moderate, he was nominated by President Obama to become Secretary of Commerce. He withdrew after it became known he had once proposed eliminating the Commerce Department. More significant, perhaps, was the brouhaha about who would finish his term and have a leg up in 2010.

Kelly Ayote (R) - former Attorney General - 46%
Paul Hodes (D) - Congressman - 39%

Ovide Lamontagne (R) - attorney - 38%
Paul Hodes (D) - 44%

Bill Binnie (R) - businessman -42%
Paul Hodes (D) - 41%

Watch this one.

Florida (2/22 & 2/23)
Here is the set up: Mel Martinez (R) resigned his Senate seat in mid-summer, 2009. The Governor, Charlie Crist (R), appointed his Chief of Staff, George LeMiurx, to finish the term. The popular assumption was that LeMiurx would be a "seat-warmer," stepping aside in 2010 so that Crist could run.
All went according to plan until Gov Crist supported President Obama's stimulus program. And then along came Marco Rubio (R) - House Speaker. He is Cuban-American, very articulate and a conservative who has attracted much support from that side of the Republican party.
I think the Republican primary is in August.
Rasmussen (2/22):
Marco Rubio - 54%
Charlies Crist - 36%
Voters who describe themselves as "conservatives" favor Rubio by 40 points.

The Democrat in the race is Congressman Kendrick Meek, who can't seem to get any traction.
Rasmussen's take on the possible November matchups (2/23):
Marco Rubio (R) - 51%
Kendrick Meek (D) - 31%

Charlie Crist (R) - 48%
Kendrick Meek (D) - 32%

I think it is safe to call this for the Repubs. But if Rubio wins, I would call it a significant victory for the conservative wing. And keep an eye on Rubio.

As an aside, I realize few of you, if anyone, is following this thread. No problem. I am a political junkie and actually keep a notebook full of notes. Pathetic, eh?

I'm here. 2006 made me a believer in polls lol.

TNR featured an article on this Dartmouth student's predictions of the 2010 elections a couple of weeks ago. Pollster.com (along with a few others) have mentioned him as well. I'm only posting a small portion, there's lots more at the link, including some interesting graphs and charts for those interested in this kind of thing. He also has recently posted his take on the Senate elections.

Interesting article, Irishk, by the lad from Dartmouth. I did find his logic a bit hard to follow. That was probably do a combination of his smarts and my stupidity about regression analysis in statistics.
The gist of a "generic" poll is to collect responses to this question: "If there was an election today for Congress between a Republican and a Democrat, which would you vote for?"
The results, he says, favor the Republicans by about 2% if you exclude polls that (like our friend, Scott Rasmussen) are perceived to have a bias.
In fact, Rasmussen, as of a week ago, had the Republicans at 44% vs Democrats at 35%. Different polls have different metrics, so I am not sure we can compare Rasmussen to the composite poll. Interestingly, the % of folks who said "neither" in the Rasmussen poll is rising.
Election day is 8 months away and this survey is based on polling data from a relatively small sample and completely ignores the fact that elections are held in districts where the winner takes the seat.
Nonetheless the student's prediction is that the stats point to the Republicans taking back the House. I think that, if things progress as they are, he could be right.
Polling on individual House races - 435 of them - is pretty sparse. I should find some updated Senate stuff this week.

Just saying g'day, RJB.
And also saying that I'm pleased to have found this thread at last.
Please continue now ...

Thanks to the both of you following this thread.

Delaware (2/25):
This is looking like the Republicans could easily pick up a Senate seat in a state that has in recent years,been trending towards the Democrats. It would, obviously, be big for the Repubs and bad news for the Dems.
Joe Biden (D) held the seat for 36 (!) years. He resigned to become Vice President. As is becoming somewhat customary in the U.S. a seat-warmer was appointed to finish the term.
The Republicans have put up Mike Castle, a long-time and popular member of Congress.
The Democrats thought they had a candidate in Beau Biden, son of Joe.
Early polls showed:
Mike Castle (R) - 47%
Beau Biden (D) - 42%
But Beau abruptly withdrew about a month or two ago. The Dems finally found a candidate, Chris Coons, a little known county executive.
Despite voter animosity towards Congress, Castle is doing very well.
Mike Castle (R) - 53%
Chris Coons (D) - 32%

Adding another page to my notebook re Senate races-

Kentucky (3/4):
Jim Bunning (R) made a lot of news a few days ago with his temporarily blocking some legislation. He is retiring from his seat in a state that leans pretty heavily Republican (McCain-58% vs Obama-41%).
There are 2 Repubs running in the 5/18 primary:
Rand Paul - an eye doctor and son of Ron Paul (R-TX)
Trey Grayson - Secretary of state
There are 2 Dems competing on the same day:
Daniel Mongard - Lt Governor
Jack Conway - Atty General

Either Republican beats either Democrat by at least 10 points. I think it is safe to call this Senate seat staying Republican.
I would be interested in learning more about how centrist or how conservative Mr Paul and Mr Grayson are presenting themselves.

Rasmussen has a new Senate poll out today.

OHIO (2/8)
Republican George Voinovich is retiring. The Repubs and the Dems will hold primaries on May 4th.
Rob Portman (R) is a former Congressman and held a couple of positions in the Bush 2 administration. He has no viable opponent in May.
For the Dems, the 2 leading candidates are Lt Gov Lee Fisher and Secy of State Jennifer Brunner.

Rob Portman (R) - 44%
Lee Fisher (D) - 39%

Rob Portman (R) - 43%
Jennifer Brunner (D) -37%

"Other" and "Not Sure" is a large 20%.
Mr Obama scored a significant victory in Ohio, getting 51% vs 47% for Senator McCain. But the economy and the health care debate now has Mr Obama at an approval rating below 50%.
This could be an interesting race once the Dems settle on a candidate.

Louisiana (3/12):
We can safely put this in the Republican column as a hold. Incumbent David Vitter has a big lead.
David Vitter (R) - 57%
Charlie Melancon (D) - member of House - 34%

Vitter avoids the anti-incumbency mood since his opponent is also in Congress. He opposes health care reform, which resonates well with folks in the state.
He did , in 2007, show up on a list of clients of a prostitution ring in D.C. He only admitted to having committed a "serious sin."
He polls well amongst men but gets half of the female vote.

Missouri (3/10):
Another day, another Senate race to report on - the 11th one in my notebook. It could be a tight race to replace Kit Bond, the retiring Republican Senator.

Roy Blunt (R) - long-time member of the House: 47%
Robin Carnahan (D) - Secretary of State: 41%

It is surprising how low the undecided/other categories add up to: 12%. Both candidates come from families with a long history in Missouri politics, so name recognition is not an issue for either.
Blunt does not seem to be hurt by the anti-incumbency mood present in the rest of the country.
Folks in Missouri oppose the President's health-care bill by a wider margin than in the nation as a whole. Just 37% support it, which probably explains why Ms. Carnahan was conspicuously absent when Mr. Obama stumped for it in Missouri last week. She had "other commitments."
By election day in 7 months the health care issue will be over with and she can pin her hopes on a perception of a recovering economy.
Sen. McCain carried Missouri 50%-49% in the Presidential race.

I am starting to see fresher polls since I first started covering the Senate races a month ago. So far there appear to be few, if any, significant shifts.

She's made statements that she would have voted 'yes' on the healthcare bill. She also supports a public option.

FWIW, Jennifer Brunner is making much better use of the network of Ohioans who volunteered for Obama than Fisher has. I get emails from her on a regular basis and have no idea who Fisher is. (Nor Portman.)

Thanks, soz.

Illinois (3/10):

This race for the seat once held by President Obama is surprisingly close at this point.
Alexi Giannoulias (D) - State Treasurer: 44%
Mark Kirk (R) - Member of the U.S. House: 41%
This is in a state that Mr Obama carried over Sen McCain 62% to 37%.

Giannoulias was associated with a family owned bank that failed during the recession. He was a senior loan officer but says he stopped working there well before the bank, like many other banks, failed in 2008/2009.
I don't know any details about what, if any, allegations of impropriety are out there. Perhaps an A2Ker in IL can fill in the gap. Rasmussen notes that 56% of voters in Illinois consider his involvement to be at least "somewhat" important.
52% of voters in Illinois favor the health care bill pending in Congress which is 10 points higher than the national rate.

I live in IL and I haven't heard much about either of these candidates. It doesn't appear to have made too much news yet.

Personally, it doesn't matter to me what either candidate is like. I'm going to be voting anti-incumbant for a long time, until I see either a) split government (meaning one party is not dominating the presidency, the house, and the congress), or b) term limits.

I am hating more and more these career politicians and I think gridlocked government is the best form of government.

Therefore, I'll be voting for Mark Kirk this November.

Funny, in the other thread you rolled our eyes when someone labeled you a 'conservative.' But across several threads, you're applauding the Tea Party, talking about how you intend to vote Republican, and knocking the Dems' health plan.

Maybe you can understand how people could get confused.

Cycloptichorn