Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

@edgarblythe,

When Carla roared through, I was living 36 miles nw of San Antonio. We had one hell of a wind all the way up there.

@edgarblythe,

Interim update from the NHC

Quote:

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

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@edgarblythe,

By the way, Edgar, whar are the call letters or website of the tv station your weather guy is on?

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?section=news/local&id=5829181
I use this site quite a lot.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

Holy cow!

The forecasts were looking more and more like a Mexico landfall through this morning. Now they're shifting north again.

he's really got quite a curve going on in this afternoon's iteration
not liking the looks of that

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@ehBeth,

Regardless of where this storm makes landfall along the Texas coast, we're likely going to feel some effects here in the Houston-Galveston area. Bill noted in his email to me, "This storm is very large. We have had squalls all day over 200 miles north of the center. And it will likely grow some more in the Gulf as it moves northwest."

Some of the outer rain bands could reach us as early as Friday. Watch out for tornadoes in some of those storms as well. The increasing winds ahead of Ike could also push some bigger swells this way along the Gulf coast. Landfall will probably be early Saturday. The type of weather we get then will depend on where the storm hits.
http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

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Big discussions over a battle between an inner and outer eye wall... I won't post them all here, but if the inner eye wall wins the battle then Ike could quickly become a Cat 4. If the outer wall wins and becomes the new center then a weaker Cat 3 will result.

Weatherunderground is apparently thinking the small inner wall will prevail.

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@JPB,

I'm not sure I can get this link to work but I'll give it a shot...

If you slow down the animation speed you can see what they mean about the tiny (barely visible 11-mile) eye and the wide band around it that would result in a 100-mile wide eye. The results of the battle of the eyes will determine Ike's strength at landfall.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=gew_gewrso_1km_visible_float

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@JPB,

Them Wunderground boys are a pretty cool bunch, BTW...

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@JPB,

I think I see what they mean, about the eye. I gathered more water and stuff today.

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@edgarblythe,

Um, everyone reacts differently of course, edgar. But I reckon if I were there I would be inclined to check into a hotel for Friday and Saturday night. A good chance of having power etc etc.
It looks to me that you are going to be on the "wrong" side of this storm (i.e E & N). Have you thought about doing the hotel thing?

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

If it seems terrible enough, I plan to go visit my brother in Dallas those days.

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@edgarblythe,

That sounds like a good idea, edgar. Make sure you've got plenty of gas in the car before heading out (maybe fill up tomorrow). Gasoline supplies dried up during Rita's evac.

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@edgarblythe,

Good luck Edgar and everyone else in the path.

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@JPB,

The Rita evacuation was the stupidest possible way to react to a storm. If we had gotten a direct hit all those thousands of cars would have been caught stalled on the freeways. I have no idea how the people were going to be saved. My daughter decided to leave, after the freeways were stalled. She took some side roads and ended up in Oklahoma. The new plan calls for zones and timed evacuation. First, Galveston, then the next zone. Tomball was not listed among the zones. They also would reverse the other side of the freeway, a whole lot sooner.
I have not asked my wife if she wants to go to Dallas. I don't thin she has another plan. Got to look out for the dog. I've gotten attached to her.

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@sublime1,

Thank you, sublime. And, it's good to see you posting here. Greetings and salutations.

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@edgarblythe,

Tomball? Is that where you are? A very little north of Houston.

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@edgarblythe,

Good to be back, finally got a new computer and its getting cooler out so I hope to be on more regularly.

1 Reply

@sublime1,

Hi sublime - it's good to see you.

RJB, power can go off in a hotel just as likely as it can in my apartment. I don't see the point in being anywhere other than here in a storm.

1 Reply

@mac11,

Mac, are you safe from storm surge / flooding?

1 Reply

Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

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