I was not intending on posting this tonight but I'm trying to put some perspective to this thing.
The 11:00 update indicates that Ike is still "officially" a Cat 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 110mph. Cat 3 storms are those with sustained wind speeds of 111mph - 130mph, so this is as strong a Cat 2 as a Cat 2 can be.
Hurricane Hunters are returning readings of 950mb which is a pressure reading typically observed in a high Cat 3 storm.
Storm surge estimates of 12' - 30' are generally seen in strong Cat 4 - weak Cat 5 storms.
Part of the problem with the heavy emphasis on the Saffir-Simpson scale is that folks make life and death decisions based solely on the SS Category. As we are seeing, the severity of a storm comes from much more than just it's wind speed. People choose to ride out a Cat 2 storm because the last Cat 2 storm wasn't that harsh. Well, this is not your every day Cat 2 storm. The NHC needs to consider other mechanisms of categorizing storms that do not entirely depend on maximum sustained wind speed.
<end of editorial>
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.
Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.
Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.
Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Katrina (pdf), a category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico, was still responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage when it struck the U.S. Gulf Coast as a category 3. It is by far the costliest hurricane to ever strike the United States. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.
But they didn't do that in the case of Ike.
Surge is already incorporated in the SS scale.
But the category discussed in landfall decision making doesn't focus on it. The SS scale as used by the NHC is posted above. The wind speed of Ike was a Cat 2 storm. The surge potential of Ike was a cat 4-5. If the focus of the discussion in the local media had switched from talking about Ike in terms of it's wind speed to that of it's surge potential at landfall for those in coastal regions then more of them may have chosen to evacuate.
Also, if what I think is true is true -- that the local government officials made their recommendations based on the economic impact of calling for a mandatory evacuation then those officials should be held criminally accountable. It can't be proven, of course, what someone's thoughts were but the press conference tapes are quite clear in how they were couching their announcements.
I consider myself a weather hobbiest, perhaps you are too. Lots and lots of folks depend on the media and local authorities to give them accurate information and to have their best interests at heart. I think that's naive and want to do my own research and make my decisions based on data that I'm able to evaluate for myself. But, everyone isn't able to do that be it from lack of access or lack of knowledge base. I agree the folks who live along the coast know what risks they're taking as the take them and that decisions made which impact the lives of others are foolish (and perhaps criminal) but we need a system of information gathering/dispensing that gives people making personal decisions accurate information based on facts not politics.
billybadbird 7:33 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
this is billybadbird and i speak to dr. masters and the weatherunderground community. all of you know my love of storms. when you live where i live you have no choice but to love them or leave them - i am sure that many of you have not known much about galveston and it's surrounding islands except for allison - a tropical storm with little wind that came across and stalled and dumped flooding rains for many consecutive days over houston. i would say from allison until 2005 we had maybe 10 waves or depressions or tropical systems come across our shore.
it's a common thing -not an if but a when
and: i would say at the risk of upsetting others that life was frankly pretty boring since hurricane alicia - my first real hurricane in my daredevil years of storm
chasing. alicia did major damage- but i played in the streets- i surfed in the gulf - i had a garage sale on the highway with dishes that would fly like a frisbee angering those who were fleeing to safety angering them further when i dropped my prices to " half off - everything must go" - some people just have no humor! some people would call the police who would say "raney, do you just like pissing everyone off?" people called me billybadass back then - but i have since cleaned up my act and my name for the sake of my family who might meet someone and hear - oh, you're billy badass's father - or mother! my poor parents- but they raised me on an island that was once as it is today- unpopulated- undeveloped - 1 little store and 1 little restaurant and 1 school where i proudly graduated the top 5 in my class of 6! i grew up playing in the ocean - swimming with dolphins porpises and seagulls who swam with me as i swam with them. then the people came- my desolate island made way to million dollar homes and tourist who litter my part of the earth and fisherman whose broken string was tossed into the ocean with their beer bottles and sode cans and
into the wings of the birds i swam with before i began to rescue the ones who could be saved and said my prayers to god before i wrang the necks of the ones who could not. i have cried wails of tears many a day and night over each and every bird whose life was taken at the hands of man. i believe each tear i shed was to god and his creatures and i was blessed beyond blessings for not one tear being a tear of pity or a why me - until the day came that i was blessed with my house directly on the ocean and directly besides my birds who came to know my house as a
safe haven where they were fed on china plates - upside down rice rice- simply cooked rice - then cooled - then turned upside down plopped onto the plate in the form of a beautiful cake. there once was seagulls then pigeons then grackle - and with god's blessings i would feed each and every bird to keep them away from the elements of man. nothing more - nothing less - billybadass turned bird - a simply boring- non existant existance - why me lord- what have i ever done TO DESERVE EVEN 1 OF THE BLESSINGS I HAVE. then came christmas - snow on christmas day - a miracle and a post on my underground blog that i will never ever change because i love god and i can go to my underground blog to see a miracle- or a present - sent to me from heaven. when i post things- as today - i come here - to dr masters or auburn or storm junkie and vortex - my friends who have done among all the many things one thing that keeps my heart pure- tell me that i am one of their own...i am just now learning and reading the well wishes and prayers being said to and for me while i was on the balcony trapped in a storm that was a tad bit more dangerous than rita and humberto and edourdo that i just finished playing in before gustav threated with nothing more than a disappointing 50 mile wind with no rain----back to back to back all of them- 7 feet storm surges that were nothing - the nothing that led me to stay for a 12 foot surge- what's another 5 feet- except the ten feet of water which submerged the island before the 12 feet came. we all know the story after that- i thought i was going to die - i thought i was going to live- then die then live- and live i did - and the memories will never fail me - and the courage only strengthened and come the next storm will only come another burst of adrenaline. that is me - that is my life - that is what everyone knows- - i am sorry to those who died - i know the lady gayle who washed up 50 miles away - and i know the lady they haven't found - who lived a life as simple as mine- rode her bike
to the store for dog food while i
rode mine for bread so i could make bread balls and throw them into the air to the seagulls who had a broken leg or were missing a leg and could not land and eat rice with the other birds because they could not stand. if there were a bread ball league i would have a trophy - maybe 20 - 1 for each season i was a champion
breadball quarterback. i am sorry for those birds too. none survived. i am sorry for the ones who did survive but were trapped in the bushes with broken wings unable for me to rescue for the water was too high. i am sorry for leaving them against my will being forced off the island by the military and texas rangers the coast guard the blackhawks and the police and into a city where i know nothing and no one - actually my third city now- being
the same bum i have always been - just not in the location where it is okay to be the bum that i am. i know that my heart is pure - i know that i am blessed - and i know that when someone has a job to do - they do it - and my job was to be the best bum on the beach- and it's the best job in the world to have - it requires nothing more than the love of god..............which brings me here today- to
say thank you to dr. masters who sent money from his pocket to get me through this city living- the horns - the pollution- the trains- the noise - the hurried people who have time for nothing but stress and more stress. his money was used to get me to my doggy- sammy, a 14 year old chihuahua who was sent to florida with my sister to save him from my foolishness- he has played with me in all the storms and i almost kept him for ike and if i would we would both be dead- on my way to the fort i never reached i let go first the gallon of milk i was drinking in my right hand- then i let go of my bike - then my boots - and if
i had my doggy i would never have let him go - i would have simply gone with him to the end - yet we are together and we are both extremely unhappy in the city together until this friday where vortex and storm junkie and auburn and robbi- saddlegait have come together to take me home where i am happy - where i can live on my island that still has no water or lights. an island that has peace- tranquility - beautiful sunrises and sunsets and moon rises and moonsets that speak to me and my heart and the birds who are my company with my peace. all of the people just mentioned- in a community where i am considered one of their own along with the the fellows at Portlight
have come together to take me home. but not just me - they have come together to bring a whole community back home- a community that is not populated enough to be remembered when people help people. my island has never fully recovered from rita- high island has never fully recovered from humberto and gilchrist had not even began to try to recover from edourdo and will never recover as ike has swept the beach away where the highway and the ocean meet. there are still people there- the diehards- the hardheads - the people who are only these things because they do not have the resources to be anywhere but where they are. the people like me who are more happy with sunsets than money. i am going home to be with them again- i won't be near them in any way but heart and spirit - but i will know they are there and they will know they aren't forgotten when Portlight
arrives this weekend with a relief truck full of supplies to help them through this journey - i hope i speak for Portlight - that they are committed not to let one itty bitty island who is not even on the map be forgotten when it already was before the storm- i know however, that i speak for my island- it won't be the supplies - it won't be the food or the water the things that are needed and will be so greatly appreciated when they come that will touch the hearts of my people - it will be the people themselves who came that will touch their heart more. it will be the hugs and the handshaking and the sorry's and the thank you's and the knowing that they - like me - my people who are there will have just met another community where they are one of our own! just one favor storm and vortex- if you will- have alot of kleenex tissue with you when you come. god bless you all- and: if anyone is interested in some dishes- i have them- i never made a dime off that garage sale. this is billy bad bird- but i ain't really no bad bird that's just my name
How are things where you are now, mac? Are repairs happening?
By Chris Paschenko
The Daily News
Published October 25, 2008
BOLIVAR PENINSULA " Hurricane Ike left about 2,000 houses standing on Bolivar Peninsula, and county engineers will be in Crystal Beach today and Sunday to help residents sort through the permitting process.
Meanwhile, it could be a couple of weeks before the Texas General Land Office marks the peninsula’s vegetation line, which could govern where property owners would be allowed to rebuild.
County Engineer Mike Fitzgerald said county employees would hand out information on the permitting process and issue permits only to owners whose houses sustained what the county deems as less than substantial damage " substantial being more than 50 percent of the value.
Homes that sustained potentially substantial damage must be inspected before the county issues permits, Fitzgerald said.
“We’ve looked at every house on the peninsula,” Fitzgerald said. “And 3,400 are gone.”
Ike’s Sept. 13 landfall on Galveston caused severe flooding and damaged much of the upper Texas Coast. The storm surge swept many homes from their pilings in Gilchrist and Crystal Beach.
Residents wanting to rebuild the 2,000 or so homes that remain will need a building permit issued by the county engineering department, which moved to the County Annex at 174 Calder Road in League City.
Those seeking a permit can call 409-770-5552 from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday to seek assistance or to have paperwork faxed to them, Fitzgerald said.
Elizabeth Robertson and Tammy Pilsener of the engineering department will hand out information and issue permits for homes that didn’t have substantial damage at 1987 Matt St. near the Crystal Beach U.S. Post Office today and Sunday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.
The Texas General Land Office could decide within two weeks where the vegetation line would be.
The 4½-foot elevation from the beach could be the deciding factor on whether the county issues permits to build on property.
Jim Suydam, spokesman for the land office, said the agency will use a standard of 4½ feet to determine where the vegetation line would likely return, since it was wiped away by the storm surge.
Suydam said the decision to rebuild anywhere between the 4½-foot elevation and the water would be a permitting process decided by the county.