Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

@mac11,

I just saw it on TV. We are moving out of the cone, bit by bit. I feel for the target area, but am very grateful it probably will not hurt us.

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

0 Replies

Holy cow!

The forecasts were looking more and more like a Mexico landfall through this morning. Now they're shifting north again.

2 Replies

@JPB,

This is the most unpredictable storm I can remember.

2 Replies

@edgarblythe,

It's still a long ways off. Hopefully by tomorrow night it will be well away from Cuba and all those crazy lines will start to come together. At least then folks can start to make contingency plans.

0 Replies

@edgarblythe,

I think I recall yall saying something a day or teo ago about some weather system moving across the plains states that might keep Ike on a more southerly track. May that system has moved faster than anticipated.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

The local weather guy was saying, if this high over here and this high over, then it will -

I think they are as puzzled as us folks that don't have satellites and other sophisticated equipment.

0 Replies

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

wow and arrgh.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

So far, I am out of the most expected path(s), for which I am grateful. Mine is a mobile home, surrounded by tall pine trees. Need I say more?

3 Replies

@edgarblythe,

The chart last posted by me seems to be at variance with our local weatherman. He makes me worry a little.

1 Reply

@edgarblythe,

That makes me worry a bit as well Edgar.

0 Replies

@edgarblythe,

No, you needn't. We have a pine tree here we call Virginia Pine. It probably has other names. 60-80' tall, with no branches. Just a crown at the top. Those things are house-killers. If the ground is saturated (like from the 8" of rain we got from Fay and Hannah) and there is a big wind, they fall over. They fall over like drunken frat boys on a Saturday night.
I drive home along Georgetown Road for a mile of its length. Dominated by Virginia pines. 4 houses that I noticed got hit in the last year.
I saw last week that one homeowner took down about eight of the trees; pretty much every tree in their yard. I am sure it hurt; it totally changes their yard. But, I think, a good idea.
I am hoping the maps later tonight will be more favorable for you.

0 Replies

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809.gif

They are doing some evacuating in Brazoria County, which is near here, but so far south Texas looks to be the target - Corpus Christi, for the moment.

2 Replies

@edgarblythe,

not good Edgar - but I am glad it is not looking like it is going to be so close to Houston.

0 Replies

@edgarblythe,

Edgar, mac, anyone else on the Texas coast(?)...

It's still only Wednesday but the folks that I read/listen to on these things are comparing Ike to Carla (1961) in terms of potential strength, storm surge, and impact away from the center. "Strong 3 - weak 4" is the current estimate at landfall with hurricane force winds reaching out 50 miles north and south from the center and major storm surge (20 -25 ft) just north of the eye wall.

The biggest problem in predicting the path is that he's only moving at 8mph. Moving so slowly means 1) that he has plenty of time to get stronger, and 2) there's plenty of time for upper level lows and highs from the north to impact his direction.

I'm sure you're watching local forecasters closely but, if you haven't already, do start thinking of making contingency plans if there's any further shift to the north.

2 Replies

@JPB,

Latest update from the NHC

Quote:

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...
690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

0 Replies

@JPB,

Thanks for your concern, JPB. I won't be evacuating, even if it heads closer to us. I'm far enough inland that I won't be affected by the storm surge.

During hurricane season, I always have water, food, batteries etc on hand.

1 Reply

@mac11,

My Mom and Dad do that down in Mobile, AL too mac11. They just go ahead and stock up ahead of time and that way they don't have to fight the crowds. It has been my goal to buy them things at Christmas and birthdays they can use in power outages, like L.L. Beans wind up weather radio and battery operated television (uhf/vhf) - hmm...will that work once everything goes digital? Anyway...just makes good sense. Thinking of you all.

Keeping my eye on that monster.

1 Reply

@mismi,

The noontime news gave the latest target spot as between Rockport and Matagorda. If it does exactly that, Galveston will get some storm surge. We would be getting some heavy rain, but not a hurricane here. Too many variables at play, but I sense that Tomball will be safe.

1 Reply

Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know