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Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

 
 
Izzie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2008 01:28 pm
@realjohnboy,
good JPB and RJB... good good good... phew
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2008 05:41 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5.gif


Looking horrible for Cuba. 135 mph winds,
mismi
 
  2  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2008 05:59 pm
@realjohnboy,
Ike's got me worried.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2008 07:07 pm
@mismi,
Me too, mis. Agreeing with rjb that things look dire for Cuba.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 06:55 am
@Izzie,
Izzie wrote:

Thanks for those Edgar.... oooof.... the Gulf Coast is gonna be hit with IKE...



tell me please.... where Hanna starts heading off East again and growing... what happens then...?

(what I know about hurricanes can be written on a postage stamp... a little one...)




Mornin' Izzie -- It looks like Hanna is going to swing north of you.

http://tribunewx.wunderground.com/data/images/at200808_model.gif
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 07:23 am
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 07:24 am
@edgarblythe,
Houston is in the middle of the cone. Perhaps Friday landfall. I hope it picks the most sparcely populated area to go in.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 07:38 am
@edgarblythe,
Here's the latest NHC advisory.

Quote:
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR JUST EAST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 07:44 am
Good morning. I was thinking that Ike might peter out as in runs through Cuba. And Edgar's map does show it going from a Cat 4 to a 1. But then it is projected to regain strength to a Cat 3 over the gulf.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 08:32 am
@JPB,
Hanna's on her way to Montana's place. I hope she's got her tall boots ready.
We're just seeing the last few dribbles of Gustav. His remnants sat over us for a couple of days. Old hurricane clouds have such a distinctive look to 'em.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 12:51 pm
The projected path for Ike is beginning to show a southerly bend beginning on Friday. Folks I've been listening to think the bend will continue and landfall will take place near the Texas/Mexico border.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5.gif
0 Replies
 
mac11
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 06:09 pm
I'm keeping an eye on that blue line.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 06:13 pm
@mac11,
Ike has me more nervous than any storm since Alicia.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 7 Sep, 2008 08:21 pm
@edgarblythe,
Yikes!

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 05:35 am
I saw new pics of Hannah's destruction this morning. I tend to forget about a storm, once it has made landfall, but those in its path don't have the option. Hope everyone is safe.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 06:29 am
@JPB,
Latest advisory from NHC

Quote:
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.


IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 06:32 am
@JPB,
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

A large area of high pressure over much of the southern US will influence which way Ike turns once he is back in the gulf. If the area of high pressure remains strong then Ike is expected to take a southern turn towards So. Texas/Mexico. If the pressure ridge weakens then the path will be more to the north towards LA.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 04:35 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif


It's a long, long time from Monday to Saturday. I am hopeful that once Ike clears Cuba something might happen to it to cause it to fall apart and not regain strength. That kind of happened with one of the other ones.
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 05:01 pm
@realjohnboy,
This one looks to be awful. I haven't heard an assessmen from Cuba, but it would not surprise me if the death toll is very high there. I am a little bit hopeful, in that Houston is a bit off center to the cone, as per the last local newcast. He said the next eighteen hours must pass before they can start to be certain where landfall might occur. There are some less populated areas between here and Corpus Christi. Hopefully, it will seek out one of them.
mac11
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 09:06 pm
@edgarblythe,
All the computer models have pushed much further south in the last few hours. I'm a little less worried now.
 

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