1
   

married and started affair with an old flame....

 
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Aug, 2007 06:33 pm
That was in 1995. The article I linked to was 10 years later.

And 43% is still not a majority -- which is the only claim I've made.

And when you control for factors like college degrees (I'd wager that most of us who are active on this online discussion board and are of age have a college degree), that's down to 17%.

That's just not cause for the kind of fatalism I see from you -- though my question was honest, not a set-up. I'm not sure what you ARE saying here, exactly:

CalamityJane wrote:
Well this is no fairy land and the divorce statistics tell us that it won't be
until death do us part.


Divorce statistics seem to tell us that currently married people have somewhere between a 57% and an 83% chance of staying together until death do them part.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Aug, 2007 06:37 pm
...actually it starts at 59%, because the 2005 article I linked to indicates that:

Quote:
The method preferred by social scientists in determining the divorce rate is to calculate how many people who have ever married subsequently divorced. Counted that way, the rate has never exceeded about 41 percent, researchers say. Although sharply rising rates in the 1970's led some to project that the number would keep increasing, the rate has instead begun to inch downward.


And that's historically -- the divorce rate is lower now.

I take issue with the fatalism partly for the reason cited in the article; that if people (falsely) think that most marriages are doomed anyway, they slide into the "why even bother?" mindset more easily.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Aug, 2007 06:48 pm
If you look here

another cdc pdf - take a look at page 6

it doesn't look that good, but I'm going to try and stay on the "there is a slight decrease over the past decade" side of optimistics
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Aug, 2007 06:52 pm
from the cdc fast stats page



Quote:
Marriage and Divorce

(Data are for U.S. for year indicated)

Number of marriages: 2,230,000

Marriage rate: 7.5 per 1,000 total population

Divorce rate: 3.6 per 1,000 population (46 reporting States and D.C.)

Source: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2005, table A


3.6/7.5

48%

(obviously, it's not really that straight-line, but it's not encouraging)
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Aug, 2007 08:23 pm
sozobe wrote:
That was in 1995. The article I linked to was 10 years later.

And 43% is still not a majority -- which is the only claim I've made.

And when you control for factors like college degrees (I'd wager that most of us who are active on this online discussion board and are of age have a college degree), that's down to 17%.

That's just not cause for the kind of fatalism I see from you -- though my question was honest, not a set-up. I'm not sure what you ARE saying here, exactly:

CalamityJane wrote:
Well this is no fairy land and the divorce statistics tell us that it won't be
until death do us part.


Divorce statistics seem to tell us that currently married people have somewhere between a 57% and an 83% chance of staying together until death do them part.


Yes sozobe, I assume that everyone here is college educated and above 21 years of age, and you can believe that only 17 % will divorce in the years to come, however, I am not as blue eyed as you, and the statistics
I've seen through the US Census haven't given an optimistic outlook either.

You are free to exclude yourself from my statement above, and I truly
hope you're the exception in all this.
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 06:05 am
CalamityJane wrote:
Well this is no fairy land and the divorce statistics tell us that it won't be until death do us part. Most people marry because they fell in love with their spouse and are committed to the marriage and offspring. Due to whatever circumstances, they can fall out of love, have incompatibility problems and so on. No one said, you have to stay
married and be miserable.


The divorce statistics don't tell us that we MUST divorce. Most people marry because they choose to fall in love. Please make no mistake about that! If they fall out of love - that is also a choice! Therefore - divorce is a choice. And you are correct - that no one said you have to stay married and be miserable. You can stay married and be happy (by choice)!

Those who buy into the; "People fall out of love all the time - just get a divorce..." concept is the very reason why the divorce rate is where it is!
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 06:16 am
ehBeth, that's again partly about how you crunch the numbers. Number of (divorces/ marriages) per 1,000, or number of people who got married who then later divorced? The NYT article says that social scientists prefer to use the latter method, and that's what yields the "no more than 41%" numbers.

Look, I'm not coming down on the other side of this either -- "Yay, you're married, there's hardly any chance that you'll divorce, sparkle smile happy happy!" I AM taking exception to the idea that divorce statistics somehow show that "it won't be until death do us part." The divorce statistics -- no matter how they're crunched -- are rather more optimistic than that.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 09:28 am
baddog1 wrote:
CalamityJane wrote:
Well this is no fairy land and the divorce statistics tell us that it won't be until death do us part. Most people marry because they fell in love with their spouse and are committed to the marriage and offspring. Due to whatever circumstances, they can fall out of love, have incompatibility problems and so on. No one said, you have to stay
married and be miserable.


The divorce statistics don't tell us that we MUST divorce. Most people marry because they choose to fall in love. Please make no mistake about that! If they fall out of love - that is also a choice! Therefore - divorce is a choice. And you are correct - that no one said you have to stay married and be miserable. You can stay married and be happy (by choice)!

Those who buy into the; "People fall out of love all the time - just get a divorce..." concept is the very reason why the divorce rate is where it is!


Okay, I said in my statement "Most people marry because they fell in love...." You are saying "most people marry because they choose to fall in love". If your statement was true, we could choose whomever we want
to and fall in love. Well, that's not true. We fall in love with someone for
the stupidest reasons - choice does not come to mind at all. You can fight
it, yes, but why?

Divorce is a choice, yes, I agree with you.
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 10:31 am
CalamityJane wrote:
Okay, I said in my statement "Most people marry because they fell in love...." You are saying "most people marry because they choose to fall in love". If your statement was true, we could choose whomever we want to and fall in love. Well, that's not true. We fall in love with someone for the stupidest reasons - choice does not come to mind at all. You can fight it, yes, but why?

Divorce is a choice, yes, I agree with you.


We may 'fall in love' for the stupidest reasons; however make no mistake that who we fall in love with (or not) is always our choice.
That is the entire premise of free will.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 11:12 am
I disagree!
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 11:48 am
I also disagree! I've never fallen in love or out of love by choice. I wish it was a choice because then maybe I could fall in love with a decent guy.

I've never had that kind of control over my feelings and I've never met anyone who has.
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 12:49 pm
CalamityJane wrote:
I disagree!


You're certainly entitled to disagree; however consider this:

You move to a new (small) town and there are only 3 men that you will come into any meaningful contact with each day.

Man #1 is physically attractive to you, well kept, educated, respectful, respected and is considerate to all.

Man #2 is not attractive to you, bathes perhaps once every week or two, loudly considers women to be only good for sex and steals from anyone he can.

Man # 3 is average looking, kind of quiet, yet you hear about & verify that he is an active pedophile.

Would you consider that all 3 men have an equal opportunity for you to fall in love with them?
0 Replies
 
Montana
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 12:57 pm
I'd never move to a small town with only 3 men Laughing
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:06 pm
baddog1 wrote:
Man #1 is physically attractive to you, well kept, educated, respectful, respected and is considerate to all.


and gay.

How would it work then?


Seems to me this is cheating to achieve your argumentation...
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:08 pm
Francis wrote:
baddog1 wrote:
Man #1 is physically attractive to you, well kept, educated, respectful, respected and is considerate to all.


and gay.

How would it work then?


Seems to me this is cheating to achieve your argumentation...


How so?
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:08 pm
Montana wrote:
I'd never move to a small town with only 3 men Laughing


By choice? Laughing
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:10 pm
You manipulate situations in order to have answers that fit your argumentation.

But if one changes the data, you achieve nothing, because you were cheating..
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:22 pm
Francis wrote:
You manipulate situations in order to have answers that fit your argumentation.

But if one changes the data, you achieve nothing, because you were cheating..


OK - let's do it this way: You provide the scenario that you feel is not cheating - and I will reply. Deal?
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:25 pm
I did already!

How about if the first guy is gay?
0 Replies
 
baddog1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Aug, 2007 01:27 pm
Francis wrote:
I did already!

How about if the first guy is gay?


And that would not be considered "cheating to achieve your argumentation"?
0 Replies
 
 

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