ISRAEL - IRAN - SYRIA - HAMAS - HEZBOLLAH - WWWIII?

I think we're one cartoon of Mohammad away from a nuclear exchange.

Sorta.

They seem a little tense over there.

<Crazed North Korean midget enters stage right>

There's something close to a war ongoing - but a World War?

Between what parties?

I agree that the reason - looking for two soldiers is as good or bad as the the assassination of the Austrian-Hungarian crownprince.
And perhaps really a domino effect could get started like 92 years ago.

But there's still the "why now and not before".

No, I believe, no-one has a really working plan for the Middle East.
And a world war wouldn't even be thought of as last ressort.

This morning Fox News was reporting repeated admonitions and warnings for Israel to stop targeting Lebanese civilians and were also offering theories and political assessments of the similarities and differences between Hamas (Sunni) and Hezbollah (Shite). They were reporting it pretty straight, but I think I detected an undercurrent of concern that has not been present before.

I tend to agree with Walter though. I don't think this one is WWIII.

A German family on visit at relatives with two small children has been killed, the home of a German diplomat was destroyed by Israelian missiles as well (and she was slightly hurt) ... but our Office for Foreogn Affairs still supports Israel and no-one here called for revenge.

With unstable regimes holding nukes during open hostilities, you don't know what's going to happen.

Brinksmanship is an art for strategists, not a new hobby for suicidal religious fanatics.

Keep in mind that this is a region that has been at war in one form or another for about two thousand years, give or take a few hundred years. Is it WWIII? No. Could it escalate into it? Quite possibly.

Food grain supplies, power plants and now fuel depots have been bombed...this is getting really heavy now.

Okay, here's Israel's side on this. I'm looking for a comparable commentary from the other side. Does anybody have one?

Mess with Israel at your peril
Uri Dromi International Herald Tribune
Published: July 14, 2006

JERUSALEM The recent outburst of violence in the Middle East might look like just another one of those cyclical rounds in which Arabs and Israelis grab at each other's throats. Yet at stake is something much more serious: the ability and the willingness of Arabs to accept the existence of Israel in their midst.

Twice in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, in 1948 and in 1967, the Arabs tried to destroy Israel. In 1948 there was a premeditated plan resulting in a concerted attack by five armies, charging the newly-born Jewish state from all directions. The Arabs of Haifa, for example, were advised by their "brothers" in Syria to leave temporarily to Beirut, because, they boasted, "in two weeks we will throw the Jews into the sea."

The rest is history. When the war was over, the Jews had the land, and the Arabs of Haifa, their children and their grandchildren became refugees in Lebanon. The anniversary of 1948, which in Israel is celebrated as Independence Day, is mourned by Palestinians as Naqba (Arabic for catastrophe).

The Six Day War was not planned, but was rather an escalation. President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt intoxicated himself and the Arab masses into believing that this time Israel could be knocked out. When the guns went silent, the Arabs once again had reasons to regret their aggression, with the West Bank and Gaza in the hands of Israel.

Since then, we have had the Yom Kippur War, the Attrition War, the Lebanon War, two intifadas and endless terror. Israel has not only survived, but has become stronger. It is a vibrant and prospering democracy, with robust economic growth over the last five years, the highest number of books published per capita in the world, and second place in the world in the publication of articles in scientific journals.

The Arabs, in the meantime, with all their aggression, have only brought on their peoples misery and poverty. President Anwar Sadat of Egypt and King Hussein of Jordan tower above this self-destructiveness as leaders who really served the best interests of their people by making peace with Israel.

So now Hamas and Hezbollah are again feeling Israel's muscles, to see if we have mellowed. It has long been the idea of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, that Israel has become weak, like a cobweb that can be easily torn apart, or better, destroyed from within. These people, who mistake democratic life for weakness, just can't grasp the fact that a democracy, if attacked, will always have the upper hand because free and proud people who fight in self defense will not be defeated.

The Arabs' cries of joys over the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers will soon turn into cries of pain, when Israel brings home the message that no, it hasn't mellowed. And when the dust settles, Arabs will once again realize that their aggression against Israel only strengthens the Jewish state and weakens the Arab cause.

Hamas, with its reckless conduct, will move the world community to declare the Palestinian Authority a failed state. Hezbollah, with its arrogance, will stir the rage of the Lebanese people, who will be fed up with its disastrous acts. The Lebanese have already demonstrated their capability vis-à-vis the Syrians, when they had enough of them in Lebanon.

Finally, if I were President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, I would wipe the smile off my face and start worrying. Soon enough, this troublemaking Alawite dictator of Sunni Syria, who has hosted every terrorist organization in the region, will learn the hard way the basic lesson of the Arab-Israeli conflict: If you mess with Israel, Israel wins and you lose.

Uri Dromi is the director of international outreach at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem.

SOURCE

Yeah.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Israel may launch false flag war provocation vs. Americans in Lebanon

BEWARE OF FALSE FLAG WAR PROVOCATIONS PLANNED WITH CONNIVANCE OF CHENEY

By Webster G. Tarpley

Washington DC, July 15 (1 PM EDT) - The escalating Israeli assault on Lebanon clearly represents a conscious bid to provoke a general war in the Middle East. The captured Israeli soldiers are only the pretext for the present massive military operations. Israeli spokesmen are making constant allegations that Hezbollah missiles being fired at Israel have been manufactured or delivered by Iran. At the same time, the Israelis accuse Hezbollah of wanting to transfer the two captured Israeli soldiers to Syria or Iran. These statements are an attempt to build a case for an Israeli sneak attack on Syria and/or Iran. US spokesmen, including the Nietzschean fascist Bolton, constantly repeat the litany that Syria and Iran are the supporters of Hezbollah.

How might the Israelis and their Bush-Cheney allies escalate to a Middle East regional war? A linear scenario is that, after further bombardment of Israel by rockets allegedly made in Iran and allegedly delivered with the connivance of Syria, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) lashes out at Damascus and Teheran. Syrian and Iranian retaliatory measures would then be seized upon by the Bush-Cheney regime as a pretext for US entry into the war. Here the US would be openly dragged into war as the tail of the Israeli dog. But this is a deeply flawed scenario, sure to generate huge waves of resentment against the Israelis and their US partners as the body bags begin to come home.

False flag scenarios would be entirely more effective from the point of view of the war planners. CNN and MSNBC coverage this Saturday morning has been stressing the situation of the 25,000 Americans now stuck in Lebanon. These Americans are being invited to register with the US consulates for possible evacuation. The State Department and the US military have been remarkably slow to begin such an evacuation.

One possible provocation scenario to bring the US into the war is that a helicopter carrying US citizens being evacuated out of Lebanon is hit by a missile and destroyed, killing all on board. The missile might be fired by the Israelis or by their allies among the fascist Lebanese Phalangists. The Israelis would announce that the helicopter had been destroyed by Hezbollah, opening the way for a hysterical campaign by Fox News and the rest of the neocon mass brainwashing apparatus to secure an early US attack on Syria and Iran.

An alternative: a group of Arabic-speaking Israeli Mossad or Shin Beth special forces, or a group of Phalangist militia round up a few dozen Americans and machine-gun them to death. The controlled media then blame the massacre on Hezbolllah, thus stampeding the US population into war.

The 'Christian' Phalangist (or 'Kataeb Party') have long been a willing cat's paw for the US and Israelis in Lebanon. It was the Phalangists, controlled by the Gemayel family, who did most of the actual killing at the infamous Tel-al-Zaatar massacre in August 1976, the midst of the Kissinger-provoked Lebanese civil war. The Phlangists in that case did the dirty work under the supervision of the Israelis. Although the controlled media have been silent about the Phalange, it is clear that they are still available for dirty operations.

In an ominous sign, CNN broadcasts have featured first-person interviews with Caroline Shamoun, supposedly an American stuck in Lebanon. This reference recalls Camille Chamoun, the CIA puppet president of Lebanon who called in US forces in 1958. The goal of the current campaign is manifestly to call US forces to intervene into a Lebanese-centered crisis once again.

All peace-loving governments and all Americans of good will should make it clear that they hold the Israeli Mossad, Shin Beth, and Israeli Defense Forces directly responsible for the safety and welfare of the Americans trapped in Lebanon by the present aggression. Any atrocities against these Americans cannot be attributed to Hezbollah, Syria, or Iran, none of whom has any conceivable interest in provoking the US into an attack. It is Israel and Cheney who have such an interest, as is likely to have been discussed during Olmert's visit to the US in May and Netanyahu's visit here in June.

It is imperative that the US and world population be inoculated against the provocation scenarios now being propagandized by CNN, MSNBC, and the rest of the controlled media.

UPDATE: SYNTHETIC TERROR ALERT: State Dept. leaves Americans sitting ducks in Lebanon

Thomas Friedman's take (excerpted)

WW III, right on schedule.

I believe the Bush administration can remain in power now. Am I right or wrong.

Hezbollah Rockets Hit Haifa, Killing 8

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Hizbollah's actions would have "far-reaching" consequences for Lebanon.

Iran warns Israel of 'unimaginable losses' if Syria hit

The mid-east is a prime example of the Bush mis-understanding reality.

This one seems to side with Israel:

Israel strikes its tormentors


This one really doesn't:

The Limits of Escalation

Nobody--well at least almost nobody--is blaming Bush for this one.

I think we need to fly B-12's over the entire region and drop a few hundred million of these:




They are just WAY too tense over there.
It's like that place is the backseat of a Chevy going on a cross country trip, it's hour 17, and they're the two siblings in the back who won't stop poking each other.

This is the perfect opportunity to put a stop to the "USA meddles in our affairs " bullshit.

Just announce we have nothing to say, are going to do nothing for any party involved including Israel with the exception of protecting Iraq, the 51st state, and then let these ashhole crazy religious fanatics send each other to Muhammed and Jehovah, the sooner the f*cking better. I'm personally tired of hearing about which God is directing people to kill other people.

That's just my opinion, to quote some other guy around here.

Too late to not meddle, Bear.

fox

I like what you are trying to do on this thread, but we ought not to forget the recent past.

There was a significant set of voices within the Republican party and the State Department (and elsewhere) with two elements of Bush policy; first, the disengagement from the Israel/Palestine negotiations which were on-going before the Bush administration took over (eg, Powell, Blair, etc) and second, the initiation of a war with Iraq (Scowcroft and many others).

Four years past, Cheney said the following in promoting the presumed benefits of setting to war with Iraq...

Something like the opposite has taken place and it is worsening steadily.

Four years past, Cheney said the following in promoting the presumed benefits of setting to war with Iraq...

Something like the opposite has taken place and it is worsening steadily.[/quote]

it did sound good enough to garner a few votes though and that's all that really mattered right?