How (and when) will the Government Shutdown end?

Murkowski has flipped (she now supports ending the shutdown). There are rumors that several others will cross over. Graham will be the last Republican standing... but he is pushing a DACA+TPS for Wall deal.

The shutdown will end before the State of the Union (probably with Trump declaring a National Emergency).

Just for context: The State of the Union (I had to look it up) is on the 29th of January.
That's a pretty long time away. Will Washington DC shatter the previous record for a gov shutdown*?

*The current record for a Federal gov. Shutdown:
November 14–19, 1995 (for 5 days), and from December 16, 1995, to January 6, 1996 (for 21 full days), in total 26 days

I did?????

Get some glasses, pal. That wasn't me. Though it did crack me up pretty good.

I don't know when Trump will pull the trigger. It may be sooner rather than later... but who knows. It probably won't be before his PR stunt at the border on Thursday.

In unrelated news, there seems to be a pretty virulent strain of flu that that is targeting TSA employees to the point it is now impacting air travel.

Think about this shutdown over a wall that in practicality can't even be logically built without totally wiping out the economy, costing tax payers who knows how much in the end, takes land away from owners, messes up the habitat for animals, not to mention the flooding issues around the Rio Grande which would be a total headache with a wall somewhere around/through/ whatever it. We have a US president who cares more about his tidily little bitty base than he does about the country he supposedly serves. Meanwhile, government workers are still not getting paid for the work they do and have a right for the money owed them. Even aside from the Russian connections with Trump's campaign, Trump deserves to be impeached for bringing our government to a standstill for no reason whatsoever. I know everyone says, Pence would be worse because he is at least not as erratic as Trump is but has all the same agenda as Trump does which would make him more successful. In my opinion that is besides the point. This is the US, we have presidents who we don't agree with all the time. But Trump just crosses all lines and he is inept and erratic besides. Having him as president disgraces us all, but none more than Mitch McConnel and the republicans serving in the house and senate who just let him have his way so that Mitch McConnel can retire with a legacy of getting the most conservatives judges to serve on the Supreme Court. It wouldn't matter if Trump shot someone on TV, the republican wouldn't do a thing to remove him. They would claim self defense or some other nonsense.


I should apologize for my ranting, but, I mean every single word and I am just too disgusted with everything going on in Washington right now.

I think the nation will survive Trump for another 22 months until the election and I want our Democratic candidates to run against Trump.

Just my opinion.

He could win again.

I get it. I really do. I am not as stupid or dense as I seem. People don't want intelligent analysis... they want to just throw mud at each other. I was hoping that people would be interested in looking at the the political strategy.

Silly me. I started this thread explicitly for political analysis beyond the sniping... I may be foolish, but I am sticking with it.

Of course.

If that happens, I think it’s possible my opinion on the strategic value of impeachment may change.

But to do so now, while Republicans control the Senate, would not be wise IMO.

That's the thing, Max. People do want to discuss the political aspect. But there is no intelligence when both houses pass legislation, want to turn it over to the president who SAYS he'll sign it, only to wake up in the morning, turn on the news then changes his mind.

No one can figure out this President. He tweets policy that has multiple departments scrambling to see if it's legal, feasible or even moral.

And you get mad at US? Wth?

I made a mistake. I have no problem with admitting that.

The question is how it will end, I am asking for political analysis beyond the normal name-calling and mud throwing.

- Whatever you think of the president... consider what his options are. What pressures are on him to keep this going? What pressures are on him to end it? Will he declare a National Emergency? Will he really let this go on for "years"?

- The Senate Republicans are very important both for their power to end it themselves... and for their ability to send a very loud message. Right now they are mostly being silent (or sort of supportive). What pressure do you see on the Senate Republicans? Do you think (as I do) that the Republicans will be drawn in to stop an increasingly damaging shutdown?

- And finally what are the pressures on the Democrats? Is there any chance they will back down? Is a DACA/TPS as suggested by Graham a possibility for them?

There are lots of things to consider rather than the normal idiotic discussion about whether it is the Democrats or Republicans who are the fascists. This sniping match between Coldjoint and Farmerman that spans threads doesn't interest me so much.

What political strategy would work with republicans and Trump other than completely laying down and giving Trump what he wants without conditions? I thought for awhile, if the democrats give in about the wall which will never be built no matter what and get in return the Dreamers act back and other immigrant issues, it would be a good compromise. But then, I rethought it the last few days. The very same people (Rush and Ingraham) who balked when Trump was willing to sign a stopgap measure to keep the government open will get on their airwaves and gripe about giving illegal immigrants amnesty, he would change his mind again. There is no compromising with Trump and Republicans unless Rush and Ingraham give Trump permission. That is the political environment we are in, ignoring it does no good at arriving and mussing about analysis over a solution to the stalemate.

So you have no problems with fascists? Good to know.

That is a good question. I think I have already explained my opinion on this, but I will say it again.

I think that the key will be Senate Republicans. When they start defecting, Trump will back down. I think they are already pushing on Trump privately, and three Senate Republicans have so far made public statements implying that the shutdown should end without the wall. There is no reason for the Democrats to back down (and quite a bit of pressure not to) unless there is DACA/TPS on offer.

Trump is acting like Trump in public. There is unquestionable pressure on him and on his administration to end the shutdown. He does care about polls and about public opinion, and the people around him do too. As the TSA starts having very public issues with employees getting sick (or now just quitting), the pressure ratchets up on Trump.

Are you predicting that this will last "months" without an end? I don't think it can. Something will break, and the cracks are starting now.

This is why I think a "National Emergency" to get wall funding, combined with an CR to fund the government (without wall funding) is the most likely conclusion. Of course the Emergency will be challenged in court.

But yes, the pressure on the Republicans is growing... and something will give soon.

No one was bitching then, why? Trump does possess the same powers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/09/obama-extends-post-911-state-national-emergency-16th-year/90004960/

I suspect that he thinks an extended shutdown will slow or derail the Special Counsel investigation, and so he's motivated to extend the shutdown.

Will enough pressure mount to re-open the government over his obstructionism? Probably eventually.

I don't think the term "National Emergency" will be the issue. The issue will be that he will be taking billions of dollars away from the military to fund a project that he can't get support for in Congress. That's a hard sell, even for Donald Trump.

I don't think that the American public will judge this to be a good thing.

How?

Americans doing their job. They should be supported not hated. Ass backwards is the only direction on the Democratic compass.
https://theblacksphere.net/2019/01/negotiating-with-democrats-is-worse-than-negotiating-with-terrorists/