20
   

Poor Kavanaugh wants to run for SC judge

 
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Oct, 2018 09:30 pm
@oralloy,
Quote oralloy:
Quote:
What part of the Constitution would be violated by giving Kavanaugh the same pass that the Democrats gave to Bill Clinton?
Constitutionally the standards are different. An elected official-an official sent to office by the people he represents-does not have to meet any standards the Senate has for him. The Founding Fathers were entirely unconcerned if the Senate thought he was a good choice or not-the Senate is stuck with him.

However, as a check against Presidential power, the Founding Fathers gave the Senate the power to veto the president's Cabinet appointments. So if the president the people elected is really out of line, the Senate can make the functioning of his government difficult. Bottom line, the Senate has to approve the Presdent's Cabinet choices.

The House and Senate together can remove the President from office, but not merely because they don't approve of him. He has to have done something really, really bad for them to remove him, that's why they make removal a two step process involving first the House, then the Senate.

Clearly, the Founding Fathers wanted two different standards for Cabinet appoinntments and impeaching of a President. The Cabinet appointment can be vetoed merely because the Senate does not think the nominee is particularly good. He doesn't have to be terrible, just not particularly distinguised enough to do justice to the Supreme Court of the United States. The President, however is already in office and cannot be removed except for the most dire reasons.

Therefore, the Constitution, and the Founding Fathers who authored it, intended for there to be entirely different standards for the Senate to confirm a President's nominee for Supreme Court or any other high office, and removing a President elected by the people he represents to serve them.
Real Music
 
  3  
Reply Mon 1 Oct, 2018 09:47 pm
@Blickers,
Quote:
My prediction is that Kavanaugh's already history.

Trump selected Kavanaugh because his anti-Roe v Wade views are a payoff to the evengelicals to forget Trump's scandalous sexual romps in the past and because Kavanaugh believes that Presidents shouldn't have to be bothered with prosecutions while in office. However, the more emerges about the 80s frat boy in high school and college the more women will be energized to turn out and vote. Kavanaugh's reached the point that his confirmation might be worse for Trump than better.

I agree with everything you are saying.
I also hope your prediction turns out to be correct.
I'm just not sure of the final outcome.
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  4  
Reply Tue 2 Oct, 2018 07:12 pm
Jeff Flake Says He Was 'Very Troubled' by Brett Kavanaugh's 'Partisan' Remarks: 'We Just Can't Have That on the Court'

Published October 2, 2018

Quote:
Jeff Flake said he was concerned about Brett Kavanaugh after hearing the judge address members of the Senate Judiciary Committee in a “sharp and partisan” manner during his testimony last week.

“I was very troubled by the tone of the remarks,” Flake said Tuesday in a panel discussion along with Democratic Senator Chris Coons at the Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C.

“The initial defense that Judge Kavanaugh gave was something like I told my wife: ‘I hope that I sound that indignant if I was unjustly maligned,’” Flake added. “But then it went on, and the interaction with the members was sharp and partisan, and that concerns me."

The senator added that he wanted to give Kavanaugh “a little leeway because of what he has been through.”

Kavanaugh noted during his testimony Thursday that he and his family have been the subject of death threats and constant harassment since the allegations came to light. As a result of the ongoing controversy, he will not be teaching law at Harvard this winter.

“In these 10 long days, as was predictable, and as I predicted, my family and my name have been totally and permanently destroyed by vicious and false additional accusations,” Kavanaugh said in his opening statement.

But later on, he switched gears and raged against the Democrats for seizing on the allegations to postpone his ascension to the Supreme Court.

“This whole two-week effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit, fueled with apparent pent-up anger about President Trump and the 2016 election, fear that has been unfairly stoked about judicial record, revenge on behalf of the Clintons," Kavanaugh said.

He went on to call Democratic members of the committee an “embarrassment.” In one exchange, when asked if he ever drank alcohol to the point of blacking out, Kavanaugh responded: “I don’t know. Have you?”

We just can’t have that on the court,” Flake said about Kavanaugh’s attacks on the senators. “We simply can’t.”

Flake persuaded the Republicans to agree to delay Kavanaugh’s confirmation and ask the White House to initiate the FBI investigation. During Friday’s pivotal vote on whether to move Kavanaugh’s confirmation forward, Flake supported the nominee but demanded a probe be done before he votes on the Senate floor.

“We simply have to elevate people to leadership positions and elect people who see it differently and understand the value and purpose of the Supreme Court,” Flake said on Tuesday.

https://www.newsweek.com/jeff-flake-troubled-kavanaugh-partisan-remarks-1149246
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Tue 2 Oct, 2018 07:48 pm
@Real Music,
My latest read.

Flake(R) is a no.
Murkowski(R) is a no.
Susan Collins(R) is a yes.
Joe Manchin(D) is a yes.

If everyone else votes party line, that puts Kavanaugh over the line. Susan Collins is the Democrat's best shot. But, Flake might still vote yes.

Sorry to say, I think his confirmation is likely. The prediction markets have Kavanaugh at 0.65 to win.
Blickers
 
  4  
Reply Tue 2 Oct, 2018 11:03 pm
@maxdancona,
Don't see how Susan Collins is a "yes" if she has a Lifetime Rating of 70% from Planned Parenthood. I think you're fooling yourself there.

Manchin I don't know about, but on the news today he sounded just like Flake-if Kavanaugh's lying he's done. Generally, if you are leaning toward somebody, you don't talk about them being done like that.

Republicans have 51 Senators. The Democrats' 47 + 2 independents who vote with them. So two Republicans leaving the fold-Murkowski and Collins-and the nomination fails.

We'll see.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 09:00 am
@Blickers,
Trump is an idiot! I am changing my prediction due to Trump's ridiculous comments. If Trump just shuts up, I think Kavanaugh get's through.

Trump mocking the victim makes it even more difficult for moderate senators. I would argue about Collins (Maine is a strange state, and Collins as a NE Republican has pressure from the right). But Trump's asinine behavior kind of makes that moot.

The moderate senators who would vote "yes" want to say that there isn't enough evidence and that this isn't about sexual assault or woman's rights. Trump's idiotic comments make Kavanaugh's confirmation seem like an attack on women.

Someone was supposed to get Trump to keep his mouth shut. They failed.


Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 10:12 am
@maxdancona,
Maybe Trump is not an idiot, at least in this case. He might want Kavanaugh to simply go away. As I stated before, in a year where women are seeming to be an emerging political force at last, Kavanaugh being confirmed will be the last straw for a lot more women who normally lean Republican.

Possibly, Trump did this to put the nails in Kavanaugh's coffin which will calm down somewhat prospective women deserters from the party. Then Trump can turn around Kavanaugh's rejection as a grievance against women and the politically correct to appeal to his alt-right base for a month.

Just a guess. Bottom line, I think Trump doesn't actually want Kavanaugh confirmed.

PS: If Susan Collins is worried about the pressure from the right as a Republican, how did she get a 70% Lifetime approval rating from Planned Parenthood in the first place?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 10:18 am
@Blickers,
Quote:
If Susan Collins is worried about the pressure from the right as a Republican, how did she get a 70% Lifetime approval rating from Planned Parenthood in the first place?


New England is a weird place to be a Republican... and Maine is even more so. Susan Collins walks a tightrope, if she loses her right wing base she has no chance. Collins is not a Democrat and if she acts like one she will lose to a real Democrat. If she votes no on Kavanaugh (against her political party) she risks losing support from the people she needs, unless she has some very good political cover.

She can get away with being a moderate on abortion. Defying her own political party on a nomination is another thing altogether. And remember, Hillary Clinton narrowly won Maine 48%-45% with 5% going to a libertarian candidate.

Trump is giving her political cover.

Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 10:40 am
@maxdancona,
And so did Flake purposely give her and others cover, although I doubt he's working together with Trump on this. Flake is retiring from the Senate, doesn't owe anyone anything, and Trump doesn't like him at all. Sure Collins would like cover, but it is impossible to imagine her voting to confirm Kavanaugh anyway.

Kavanaugh and abortion are linked, since Kavanaugh has stated he doesn't view Roe v Wade as "settled law" and given indications he would overturn if given the chance. Nobody who supports Roe v Wade can consider confirming him on Constitutional grounds, the grounds being whether or not the Roe decision is "settled law" or not.

She bucked the Republicans before on this issue, this is nothing new for her. Of course, she could use cover, but it doesn't mean it's necessary.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 10:45 am
@Blickers,
Again, I think this is now moot...

We are talking about a key vote where Collins is considering defying the president and the party leadership on a Supreme Court Justice. This is about as important a vote as you could imagine.

Collins defying her party on this vote is a unique decision. It doesn't compare to normal votes on bills. If she votes "no" as a Republican in a State where Trump lost by less than 3% she runs a real risk of getting successfully primaried.

Trump's idiotic behavior (which I don't think is strategic) makes that less risky for her.
Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 11:20 am
@maxdancona,
We are talking about a Supreme Court justice who has given every indication that he would vote to reverse Roe v Wade. This is an abortion issue, as well as a Constitutional issue, that of Roe v Wade being "settled law". And every time Collins has voted for women's reproductive rights, she been bucking the Republican Party leadership, so this is nothing new.

Unlikely Collins will meet with a serous Republican challenge. She's in her fifth Senate term, she's a proven vote getter, and when it comes to New England, Republicans will take what they can get.

If she came from the Midwest or some other region, what you're saying might apply. Not in Blue New England.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 11:50 am
@Blickers,
Quote:
Collins, in particular, seems to have become the focus of the stop-Kavanaugh movement. ...

[Susan] Collins told The Wall Street Journal that she finds "the out-of-state voicemails being left on the answering machines of my state offices" to be "incredibly offensive."

"In one case – and we are going to turn this over to the police, but unfortunately, of course, the person didn’t leave a name or number – but they actually threatened to rape one of my young female staffers," Collins told the Journal.

One incensed voter left a voicemail for Collins, which her office shared with USA TODAY, in which he repeatedly screamed insults while wondering how Collins could accept Kavanaugh's statement that he considers Roe v. Wade to be "settled law" when he was "handpicked by the Federalist Society specifically to overturn" that decision.

"You will go down in history as the most naive person ever to be in Congress you (expletive), (expletive), feckless, naive woman!" the caller yelled.

"If you care at all about women's choice, vote no Kavanaugh. Don't be a dumb b---h," another male caller said.

A letter sent to Collins' office warned that if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh "EVERY waitress who serves you is going to spit in your food, and that's if you're lucky you (expletive)."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/12/susan-collins-gets-vulgar-calls-opponents-brett-kavanaugh/1277433002/
Blickers
 
  3  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 12:17 pm
@maxdancona,
So your argument is down to that? That Collins is getting some nasty Emails and voice messages?

I thought you were talking about Republican leadership and credible primary challenges, not this kind of stuff. Besides, she's voted pro-choice many times, so threats come with the territory. She's seen it before, so this won't sway her.

Her term expires in four years, Kavanaugh will most likely be a dim memory by that time. She will have completed her fifth term in the Senate in four years and will be 70 years old-she might retire. She won't have to worry about a credible primary threat in Maine, Republicans are pleased as Punch to have any Senators in New England. She has a Lifetime Approval rating of 70% from Planned Parenthood and she's voting against Kavanaugh. She'll take whatever cover somebody wants to give her, but she's voting against him anyway.

maxdancona
 
  3  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 12:34 pm
@Blickers,
That wasn't an argument at all (believe it or not, not every post is meant as an argument). If I were making an argument, I would have followed it with the actual argument I was making.

I just found it interesting and relevant.

Susan Collins will make her decision on her own terms. She is a politician for whatever that means. It is my opinion that Trump's recent antics make it easier for her to vote "No", but she will do what she decides is best.

I don't see the point in arguing what another human being is thinking. Yes, that is exactly what I was doing... and now I feel a little foolish about it.
Blickers
 
  4  
Reply Wed 3 Oct, 2018 01:09 pm
@maxdancona,
We'll see how it turns out. Right now, with more stuff coming out about his youth, Kavanaugh is looking more and more like the type of person parents have nightmares about with their daughter. Getting harder and harder to see him making it.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2018 10:30 am
@Blickers,
It looks like Collins is probably a yes vote. The prediction markets now have confirmation at 0.90.
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2018 10:33 am
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:

Kavanaugh is looking more and more like the type of person parents have nightmares about with their daughter. Getting harder and harder to see him making it.


This is the problem... people outside the liberal bubble don't see it this way. I think the left is again overplaying their hand.

All of the accusations against Kavanaugh are from his peers (not people he had any power over) at parties.
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2018 05:29 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote max:
Quote:
It looks like Collins is probably a yes vote.
And yet, with so many Senators revealing their vote already, Collins has not revealed hers. Which itself is quite significant.

As Alice Cooper said, "Don't count your cards before they're hatched."
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2018 05:34 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote max:
Quote:
This is the problem... people outside the liberal bubble don't see it this way.
In that case, according to Marist the people in the liberal bubble are ahead of the people outside it by 45%-33%. 22% aren't sure which bubble they're in.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Oct, 2018 05:45 pm
@Blickers,
You will note I said "Collins is probably a yes vote." She is giving clues that she will vote yes. It is not certain, but it is probable.
 

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