Can Obama Lose? Will he be a one-term president?

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I've long maintained that Obama's re-election is his to lose, but with the economic recovery still seeming distant to the American street it's looking like he might actually have to grind out his victory. His ratings are abysmal and polls are starting to emerge saying that the public want him (and pretty much all politicians) out.

If I were a betting man I'd still comfortably bet on the election going his way, but I'm starting to have more doubts and am wondering how the campaign strategies will playout. Nobody is going to buy his "audacity of hope" and general political outsider act that he pulled, and he can't just campaign as the opposition to Bush. I wonder what he's going to brand around this time. I can't think of anything compelling (other than being the anti-dote to his competition) and whether or not anyone considers it fair, the national consensus seems to be that he was a disappointment, and I wonder if that will be seized upon by his Republican rival and what it is that Obama will use as his central campaign theme.

I'm thinking he will win largely because of the weakness (and general nuttiness) of the current crop of Republican candidates but am curious to hear what others predict at this stage.

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@Robert Gentel,

Given the history of the Republican party of late I question if too many people are going to had a lot more faith in them to turn this economic around then Obama and the Democrats.

The 99 percents movement that is sweeping the country and that just gotten BOA to back down is not a GOP movement to say the least.

The idea of let take more and more and more wealth from the lower classes and give it to the one percent of the population in the hope that they will create jobs on our shores instead of China is not going over too well any longer.

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@Robert Gentel,

I still think it's his to lose but really only because the Republicans are running some very strange people. I couldn't believe it the other day when I agreed with Pat Robertson who said something like "the GOP will lose because they're forcing all their candidates to the far right way too early in the game".

I think Obama will move a bit more to the center to attract more moderate Republicans. I think he's lost the idealists who believed his message of "hope" and "change" but I can't really see them voting for any of the other candidates. If they don't vote at all things get murky.

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@boomerang,

boomerang wrote:

I think he's lost the idealists who believed his message of "hope" and "change" but I can't really see them voting for any of the other candidates. If they don't vote at all things get murky.

the commentators I've been following have been talking a lot about how getting out the vote will be an even bigger issue than usual. They've expressed concern about Obama's ability to get the youth and woman vote out next time. Without 'em, the Republicans could grab it.

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@boomerang,

Pat Robertson? Said What?

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@maxdancona,

I know!

He did go on to say something about how the GOP needs to be more moderate in order to get into the White House before moving far to the right so it doesn't count all that much.

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@Robert Gentel,

Can he lose? Definitely.

I do think it's more likely that he'll win, though.

I think "responsibility" and "seriousness" will be themes. That he's steered the nation through some really trying times in a responsible, steady way. He wrapped up the Iraq war, got health care passed, halted the recession's slide, killed Bin Laden, handled Libya quickly and effectively, etc., etc. While the Republicans have been posturing and obstructionist and unserious.

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@Robert Gentel,

I think he will win, but no matter how much he tries to play nice with the republicans they have no intention of playing with him in any fashion... There really ought to be two presidents, one republican and one democrat the way things are going, because the republicans have learned the power of resistence, of being a veto on everything the democrats have worked for and stood for... That is not usually enough to gain them the presidency, but they can be certain that when they win, the democrats will play nice with them in order to play at all... There is no answer for republican brinkmanship but to push them over the brink... Simply to go along to get along is not the answer, and I think it would be cool if the republicans were to win, and cool if the democrats had the discipline to resist... Clearly, the democrats want to save society, and society as we know it is all that stands in the way of the rich having it all, so lets end it before we see the democrats give away everything before our eyes... If they want to lead, let them lead us into revolution or get the hell out of the way..

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@Fido,

Quote:

because the republicans have learned the power of resistence, of being a veto on everything the democrats have worked for and stood for...

The other path is that the Republicans piss so many of the voters off that they lose so must power that they can not block anything,

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Quote:

“You don’t get the sense that Obama relishes exercising power,” says Feldstein. “He’s both cleaner and less effective than some of his predecessors.”

I’d amend that argument on the effectiveness front; the president has won more than he’s lost over the last couple of years. But whatever his successes and failures in office, he is, as Joe Biden got in trouble for saying in 2007, “articulate and bright and clean.” Polls consistently show that the public agrees. Integrity is a nice calling card in a bruising election. If he manages to get reelected amid sky-high unemployment, this will be a big reason why.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/november_december_2011/features/scandal_in_the_age_of_obama032995.php?page=1

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I think Obama's decision to tack populist is going to pay off for him big time.

He could run a very effective campaign that is sharper against the GOP than last time. I believe he could (completely honestly) say that he tried his best to work with the Republicans, who basically spit in his face at every opportunity while personally demeaning him constantly. A lot of the apathy of his base was generated by his unwillingness to take a hard line against them; turning to that now will definitely add a lot of wind into his sails.

Also, the GOP candidates all have major issues, and the GOP in Congress is pretty much the most unpopular bunch ever. So, I think Obama is still the favorite to win at this point.

Cycloptichorn

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@Robert Gentel,

President Obama would lose, if the Republicans offered up even a halfwit as an opponent...so far they haven't gone to those heights.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

I do think it's more likely that he'll win, though.

I agree, I think he'll narrowly beat Romney. But I think if the Republicans had a more credible candidate he'd lose and that this says more about their inability to field someone serious than him.

Quote:

I think "responsibility" and "seriousness" will be themes. That he's steered the nation through some really trying times in a responsible, steady way.

I think the overwhelming majority of the country will not see his performance as positively as you do. I certainly don't, the idea of him winning again makes me cringe.

Quote:

He wrapped up the Iraq war, got health care passed, halted the recession's slide, killed Bin Laden, handled Libya quickly and effectively, etc., etc. While the Republicans have been posturing and obstructionist and unserious.

I think he'll certainly try to campaign on the plank of everything being the obstructionist politicians' fault but I really don't think most people would view his performance as a success (these things you cite as high points are all enormous failures to me, deeply disappointing failures for which I blame him and not those he incessantly passes the buck to).

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@Robert Gentel,

Quote:

I think he'll certainly try to campaign on the plank of everything being the obstructionist politicians' fault but I really don't think most people would view his performance as a success (these things you cite as high points are all enormous failures to me, deeply disappointing failures for which I blame him and not those he incessantly passes the buck to).

It's an enormous failure that he killed Bin Laden? You're pretty far out of step with, yeah, the rest of the country on that one. People I don't even know were shouting the news out the windows of their apartments at me and cheering that night. Really disappointing to you? C'mon.

Same with wrapping up the Iraq war... I don't know how you can call that a failure on his part.

Regarding 'passing the buck;' polling clearly shows that more Americans agree with Obama that others are to blame for our current situation, than blame him personally.

I think the biggest problem you're going to have with Obama going forward is the fact that his populist tone and attacks are going to work, because people agree with him that capitalism and wall street have gotten out of control, and that taxes need to rise from these historically low rates in order to maintain elements of our society that people want maintained.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

It's an enormous failure that he killed Bin Laden?

I think his assassination policy is immoral.

Quote:

You're pretty far out of step with, yeah, the rest of the country on that one.

I agree, most Americans are fine with assassination as long as America is the one doing it.

Quote:

People I don't even know were shouting the news out the windows of their apartments at me and cheering that night. Really disappointing to you? C'mon.

People cheer at immoral things, it does not make them moral.

Quote:

Same with wrapping up the Iraq war... I don't know how you can call that a failure on his part.

What did he do? He promised timelines he didn't keep. The Iraqis are kicking the US out. What exactly is the success here? Just not continuing in their country against their will? Iraq went the way it would have gone under any administration during the period he was in charge.

Quote:

Regarding 'passing the buck;' polling clearly shows that more Americans agree with Obama that others are to blame for our current situation, than blame him personally.

Polling also shows that the overwhelming majority hold his performance in low esteem, but none of this will matter anyway. These current polls will be meaningless soon.

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@Robert Gentel,

Quote:

Polling also shows that the overwhelming majority hold his performance in low esteem, but none of this will matter anyway. These current polls will be meaningless soon.

I don't believe this is actually true in the slightest. His job approval ratings have been consistent for almost two years, falling in the 40-45% approval range. He is rated as 'more trusted' on almost every issue than the GOP is. He also consistently polls very high in personal approval numbers (not connected to his job performance; 'likeability.') Do you have some evidence to support your contention here, and to counter polling evidence that shows him still holding on to a great deal of support?

Quote:

What did he do? He promised timelines he didn't keep. The Iraqis are kicking the US out. What exactly is the success here? Just not continuing in their country against their will?

Yes, that's exactly correct. People have wanted troops out of Iraq for a long time and one way or another he's the guy who is doing it.

The only part that's INCORRECT is that Iraq is 'kicking us out.' They aren't doing that, they don't have the capability to do that. All they are doing is specifically not allowing our soldiers to continue to have immunity from prosecution.

Quote:

Iraq went the way it would have gone under any administration during the period he was in charge.

I completely and totally disagree. A GOP president would have found some way to keep them there. In fact, every GOP candidate has said exactly this, so I don't know why you think any differently.

Cycloptichorn

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@Robert Gentel,

I would actually be scared if he did manage to lose, to be honest. Not because I'm a die-hard Democrat, (I'm registered as an independent), but because the Republicans have shown not one iota of common sense lately with either their policies nor with the imbeciles they've been trotting out as viable candidates.

I honestly thought that McCain/Palin was the lowest point in GOP history, but it seems that they are hell-bent to outdo themselves yet again. Obama losing to any of the crackpots currently on the docket would be a clarion signal to all that America has reached it's apex.

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@Robert Gentel,

I was answering this:

Robert Gentel wrote:

I wonder what he's going to brand around this time.

I think he'll brand around seriousness, responsibility, steadiness, etc.

It wasn't about my own opinion but what the campaign has to work with.

1 Reply

@Robert Gentel,

Quote:

I think his assassination policy is immoral.

Lord what a bullshit position to take and I would love to place you the in a room full of the families of the men women and children that was on those four planes along with the families of those who lost love ones at the three buildings hit by those planes and the survivors of the attack so you could explain how we was immoral for taking the SOB out to them.

An SOB that was an ongoing threat to others men women and children in the US.

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@BillRM,

Oh horseshit. Typical GOP bull to throw a tear-jerker scenario into the mix and claim it as justification. In Osama's case. . . I can agree with you that he needed to be nixed. However let's not forget that we've also started targeting American nationals for assassination. How's that sit with you? Or are you on the NRA -shoot first ask questions later- bandwagon? Because I bet the families of those assassinated will cry and wail just as loudly as the victim's families did.

1 Reply

Can Obama Lose? Will he be a one-term president?

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