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The Democrats will win again in 2016

 
 
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 01:14 pm
I predict that the Democratic Party will win the presidential election by a wider margin in 2016.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 25 • Views: 11,136 • Replies: 120

 
Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 01:20 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I agree mainly because the Republican party has imploded on itself.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 01:22 pm
@Ragman,
Implosions can be undone as fast as they can come about. But right now things are trending for nothing at all to go their way for the next election. Things can easily change, but enough would have to that I am willing to call the election early.
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 01:37 pm
A little too early. Much can change in a week much less 4 years.
JPB
 
  4  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 01:51 pm
I think it depends on how many states revamp their Electoral College votes between now and then. There are a number of states considering doing partial allocations based on % of the popular vote. This would help the Rs if it is done more in states with a large R population but went D because of urban centers. Places like Texas which went R but had 41% of the votes going Dem aren't considering it. The EC allocation is decided on a state-by-state basis. They could very well finagle their way into the WH in 2016 by picking and choosing which states do partial EC allocations based on the popular vote in that state.
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:12 pm
@JPB,
Really? I didn't know that. So winner takes all when it comes to the electoral college is not written into your constitution?
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:17 pm
@dlowan,
Right. I believe we have two states that split electoral votes right now.
roger
 
  3  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:22 pm
@RABEL222,
Lots of changes happen from week to week. We saw that in the last campaign season. Those weekly changes don't seem to translate into an election victory, unless one is caught in bed with either a live boy or a dead girl.

What is predictable is changing demographics. Ethnic and racial minorities are increasing. It's reasonably predictable there will be more lower income voters in the future, as well as more dependent on the government for income. I'm inclined to go with Robert on this one.
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:31 pm
@roger,
roger wrote:
What is predictable is changing demographics. Ethnic and racial minorities are increasing.


and the voter base is getting younger
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:36 pm
@roger,
Maine and Nebraska, I believe.

So far I've heard that Pennslyvania, Florida, and Ohio(?) are all considering it. They all went Dem but had large R turnout. It will make a difference if it happens in a number of the swing states with Republican controlled legislatures.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:42 pm
Also VA and WI

Quote:
The GOP’s New Voter Suppression Strategy: Gerrymander the Electoral College
Ari Berman on December 10, 2012 - 2:46 PM ET
For a brief time in the fall of 2011, Pennsylvania GOP Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi unveiled a plan to deliver the bulk of his state’s electoral votes to Mitt Romney. Pileggi wanted Pennsylvania to award its electoral votes not via the winner-take-all system in place in forty-eight states but instead based on the winner of each Congressional district. Republicans, by virtue of controlling the redistricting process, held thirteen of eighteen congressional seats in Pennsylvania following the 2012 election. If Pileggi’s plan would have been in place on November 6, 2012, Romney would’ve captured thirteen of Pennsylvania’s twenty Electoral College votes, even though Obama carried the state with 52 percent of the vote.

In the wake of Romney’s defeat and the backfiring of GOP voter suppression efforts, Pileggi is resurrecting his plan (albeit in a slightly different form) and the idea of gerrymandering the Electoral College to boost the 2016 GOP presidential candidate is spreading to other GOP-controlled battleground states that Obama carried, like Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Thanks to big gains at the state legislative level in 2010, Republicans controlled the redistricting process in twenty states compared to seven for Democrats, drawing legislative and Congressional maps that will benefit their party for the next decade. (The Brennan Center for Justice estimates that Republicans picked up six additional House seats in 2012 due to redistricting.) Republicans now want to extend their redistricting advantage to the presidential realm.

Pileggi’s plan, if implemented in all of the battleground states where Republicans held a majority of House seats, would’ve handed the White House to Romney. According to Think Progress:
More
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:43 pm
@roger,
roger wrote:

Right. I believe we have two states that split electoral votes right now.


Does that actually imply that, were all states to divide electoral votes according to the proportion of the vote won by each candidate in that state....insofar as that would be possible....a candidate not from either party could conceivably win?

dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:44 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

roger wrote:
What is predictable is changing demographics. Ethnic and racial minorities are increasing.


and the voter base is getting younger


That makes me go with Robert too.

0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 02:51 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

I think it depends on how many states revamp their Electoral College votes between now and then. There are a number of states considering doing partial allocations based on % of the popular vote. This would help the Rs if it is done more in states with a large R population but went D because of urban centers. Places like Texas which went R but had 41% of the votes going Dem aren't considering it. The EC allocation is decided on a state-by-state basis. They could very well finagle their way into the WH in 2016 by picking and choosing which states do partial EC allocations based on the popular vote in that state.


There are some prominent GOP voices who are speaking out against this, so I doubt it'll happen.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 03:02 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:
The EC allocation is decided on a state-by-state basis.


this seems really crazy. How did it come to develop like that?
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 03:30 pm
@ehBeth,
No idea, but Mass was split back in the early 1800s before there was a Maine. I see that Nebraska is looking to go back to winner take all next year because they don't want Ohama going blue.
0 Replies
 
Sturgis
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 04:37 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Too early to really know.

There was a time when people swore George W. Bush would never get a second term and yet he did.

At this time we have no idea who the Democrats will ultimately select and without that and without any idea who the Republicans may actually find (and there are a handful of decent Republicans out there), it's only dreaming that the Democrats will take the win.
maxdancona
 
  3  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 04:38 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
and the voter base is getting younger


That's odd. I am part of the voter base and I am not getting any younger.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 04:39 pm
@Sturgis,
A decent Republican has zero chance of making it through the primaries.
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Dec, 2012 04:57 pm
@maxdancona,
Ain't no such animal.
 

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