Hillary Ahead By 14 Points. Trump In A Tailspin.

Why people bother to thumb down what current poll numbers were just can't live with facts. Also childish.

Quote revellette:

The popular vote, at least, is headed for coming down to the wire. If you see the chart below, which is the 4 candidate chart since July you can see that Johnson started going down right about late September, (when Hillary won the first debate), and Hillary at first got most of his voters. Clearly, Johnson, who was projected to get Republican votes, was pulling votes from both Hillary and Trump. However, once Johnson's Democratic voters returned to Hillary, then Johnson started losing his Republican voters. In the last few weeks, Gary Johnson's loss and Trump's gain have mirrored each other.

If Johnson continues to lose 2 or 3 percent more in the last week, which seems likely, then the polls will show an even match in the popular vote. Since the Electoral College switches quickly as a candidate picks up popular votes-gaining a few points in the popular vote means you gain a lot in the Electoral College vote-this thing looks to be about dead even by Election Day.



It would not surprise me if that if Hillary wins, it will be "the ground game"-the ability of the Democratic Party to get out the vote on Election Day-that makes the difference. Trump doesn't have the Republican Party fully behind him, his "ground game" is not going to be up to par.

The other, rarely discussed factor is how many married women, when interviewed by pollsters while standing next to their husband, are saying they are voting for Trump to "keep peace in the family" and avoid an argument-then plan to vote for Hillary because of Trump's comments about women. If Hillary wins by a several point margin on Election Day, it will almost certainly be because married Republican women kept mum until they got to the polling place, then voted against Trump.

I ignore the thumb up/thumb down function. I don't use it and don't attend to it as a metric worth my attention. It's anonymous, which is something I am seriously against which is why I've always posted everywhere using my real name.

I hear you and agree. Unless we know who the people are that thumbs up or down, it has no value.
Rather, a graph showing approval or disapproval of voters would have more meaning.

The betting site shows North Carolina nearly 50/50. If Trump gets North Carolina, that will leave only Nevada and one of the gray states.

Actually he doesn't need Nevada if he gets a big enough gray state. But it can be presumed that if he gets a gray state he'll probably also have gotten Nevada at the same time.

Do you really believe that? What do you think the odds are?"

It's what the site says.



At the moment of this post, the site says:

President:
Hillary: 72.7%
Trump: 26.1%

Senate Majority:
Democratic: 61.5%
Republican: 38.5%

House Majority:
Democratic: 8.5%
Republican: 91.5%

Some movement on the BBC poll. Clinton 48% Trump 46%.

So you think it could be dead heat, but Clinton will manage to win because of the democrat ground game of get out the vote and some republican women who might vote for Hillary on election day but are not admitting it now? I hope we don't have to depend on the latter. From what ehbeth has posted these last few months, the Clinton's ground game has been great so perhaps that will be enough as long as there are not Trump stalkers intimidating voters.

I thought the following might interest some of you, it is an analysis on 538 based on 270 To Win maps .

Which Tipping-Point States Favor Trump?

Quote revellette:

I thought that yesterday, until I turned on the Lawrence O'Donnell show on MSNBC last night. He dealt with the people who are doing the Florida early voting exit poll, that is the Target Smart/College of William & Mary poll. This poll showed that 28% of Republicans who voted early voted for Hillary. Granted that the early voters tend to be a little different from voters on Election Day, that is still a bombshell which changes everything.

It could be Republicans who have found some things Trump says agreeable but now that's it's time to actually send someone to the White House, it can't be Trump. Or, it could be Republican women who made up their minds permanently when they heard Trump shoot his mouth off on that bus. Either way, the normal presidential crossover percent from one party to another is a mere 6%, Trump can't win with a quarter of Republican voters voting for Hillary.

hopefully more people will join this bandwagon

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/31/kasich-vows-not-to-vote-for-trump/93092170/



McCain ftw!

Yah!! Hope it continues.

And McCain is, I expect, already sick of the winning, there being so much of it for him.

I would like to see more exit polling in other early voting states besides Florida, just to see if the same startling amount of Republicans plan to vote for Hillary in other states.

More movement on the BBC Clinton 48% Trump 45%.

As of when I'm making this post, FiveThirtyEight's "Polls Plus" page has Trump winning every red state on that map. That gives him 265 electoral votes, and all he needs in order to win is one of the gray states.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Of course, this doesn't mean the polls aren't wrong in one direction or another. And they might have to be wrong in order for one of the gray states to fall to Trump. And I wouldn't be surprised if North Carolina and Nevada wobbled back and forth between Trump and Clinton a few times. Interesting development though.

So, that's your first post here and it's a dilly. You go on ignore immediately.

Katie Hopkins is probably the most hated woman in Britain. She courts controversy by spouting extremist views. This is more of the same.

She's a joke. Nobody takes her seriously.

I'm not familiar with her so thanks for the alert.