Hillary Ahead By 14 Points. Trump In A Tailspin.

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

It really doesn't matter, because Hillary already has over 300 electoral votes.

Your math is bad. As the polls stand, Hillary has fewer than 300 electoral votes.

cicerone imposter wrote:

The game is over.

Not if the polls are off target.

1 Reply

@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

Florida is tied according to Real Clear Politics:

On the election betting site, Florida is back to Clinton as of when I'm composing this post. It'll wobble back and forth a few times.

Blickers wrote:

Pennsylvania, which the Republicans are forever saying is in play for them, once more is not. PA has Hillary 5.8 points ahead.
Wisconsin is also in grey but Hillary is 5.8 points ahead there as well. All these figures are averages of 10 polls.

Yes. The polls will have to be off target for him to get any of the gray states.

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@oralloy,

http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/10/30/weekend-polling-update_405.html#.WBbHa4ZHb7o

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Try the numbers with Florida in Trump's column.

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@roger,

roger wrote:

I agree with all three statements. Isn't this year odd?

What do you think of that other Republican guy, I forget his name, the one who has a shot at winning Utah.

FiveThirtyEight advanced a scenario where he gets Utah and neither Trump nor Hillary gets to 270. In that case the House gets to pick the winner from the top three people on the electoral votes list. And since Utah would have given him some electoral votes, he could be the guy selected as president.

EDIT: The guy's name is Evan McMullin.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

2 Replies

@oralloy,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/?0p19G=c
Do you understand what "approaching zero" means?

1 Reply

@oralloy,

I forget his name, too. It's interesting, but doesn't seem important. Some people are going to write in Mickey Mouse; Utah is doing about the same with someone whose name we can't remember.

1 Reply

@roger,

roger wrote:

I forget his name, too. It's interesting, but doesn't seem important. Some people are going to write in Mickey Mouse; Utah is doing about the same with someone whose name we can't remember.

Evan McMullin. I just edited it into my previous post.

The scenario where he can win the presidency by winning Utah alone is viable if neither Trump nor Hillary reach 270.

If I was going to waste my vote, I'd write in Sylvanas Windrunner.

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@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

Do you understand what "approaching zero" means?

Trump's odds of winning are just shy of 25% (1 in 4).

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@roger,

Very peculiar indeed.

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@Blickers,

Texas is on the path to have 10.5 million people vote. Up from the record in 2008 of 8 million.

I wonder where those new voters are coming from?

1 Reply

@DrewDad,

Maybe Hispanics? A lot of American born Hispanics are now old enough to vote.

1 Reply

Nate Silver had a new update, sometimes I dread reading his pieces, this is one of those times. Keep in mind the words relative and if.

The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

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http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/10/31/electoral-college-projections-as-of-october-31st_406.html#.WBjA2fnQfIU

Quote:

October 31, 2016

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has eroded somewhat since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 26th. Much of the change has been around forecasters moving states to toss-up that they had previously characterized as leaning toward Clinton.

Several forecasters followed this reclassification with Florida as it has tightened considerably in the polls. Trump has led in two of the last four polls there and only trailing by one in the other two. With its 29 electoral votes, the Sunshine State is pretty close to a must-win for the Republican nominee.

Hillary Clinton now averages 293 electoral votes, down 13 from last Wednesday. Donald Trump is at 183, a gain of four. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

http://www.270towin.com/uploads/forecasts_1031.png

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@revelette2,

Yup, that's my take on it.

Can't find any data on exit polls, though. Sad

1 Reply

@DrewDad,

The only people who have voted are early voters and absentees, right? Maybe they don't really do exit polls because early voting is kind of misleading. I remember in the primaries, the early voting nearly always went to Clinton and then it would tighten up when the rest came in. I suspect that is the way it will be in general. I have to admit to a disadvantage I have, I really can't read data and numbers as well as some of you can, (numbers have never been my thing.) So, knowing what we know with latest polling since the upset of Comey's announcement, what state is Clinton's chances of winning? Is it going to come down to the wire as they say or is Clinton clearly going to win on election night?

2 Replies

@revelette2,

There's been one poll showing Trump leading, which naturally all the Trumpeters are jumping on as proof! PROOF! That Trump is going to win.

Otherwise, not much change in polling, from what I've seen.

See ehBeth's post just above.

1 Reply

@DrewDad,

Quote:

See ehBeth's post just above.

Yes. ALWAYS refer to polling averages, not to any single poll that comes out and sets your nerve ends aflame.

The ABC News/WP poll also found, one week out from election day, that Romney and John Kerry were leading. (Steve Benen)

1 Reply

@blatham,

Post-ABC Tracking Poll: Trump 46, Clinton 45, as Democratic enthusiasm dips
Trump and Clinton split 46-45 in a four-way contest, 47-48 in a two-way matchup.

Vegas odds on the election: http://www.thewrap.com/donald-trump-election-odds-jump-33-percent-since-friday-vegas/

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

Quote:

The same site has updated its odds and Clinton is now -300 compared to +200 for Trump, meaning that she is still a 2-to-1 favorite to claim the White House.

1 Reply

Hillary Ahead By 14 Points. Trump In A Tailspin.

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