Hillary Ahead By 14 Points. Trump In A Tailspin.

That\'s even more cautious than the BBC that has the gap at six. No movement from yesterday.

Slight movement today. Clinton down to 49% Trump up to 43%.

Clinton nearly doubles lead over Trump in latest CNBC survey
Source: CNBC

With only a dozen days to go before the election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has ratcheted up her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump to 9 points, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, nearly doubling her advantage from the last poll.

After weeks and months of what many Republican strategists called verbal and strategic missteps by Trump, and despite potentially ruinous revelations from leaked Clinton campaign emails, the Democrat leads the Republican nominee by 46 percent to 37 percent among registered voters in a two-way race and by the same margin among likely voters. In June, Clinton led by just 5 points.

The CNBC survey of 804 Americans around the country, including all age and income groups, was conducted by Hart Research Associates on the Democratic side and Public Opinion Strategies on the Republican side. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, meaning Clinton's lead could be as large as 16 points or as small as 2 points. It was conducted Oct. 21 to 24.

Clinton widened her lead on several major issues, including immigration, trade and the budget deficit. She's even turned around a perceived advantage Trump had on who is best for the stock market, to a 1 point lead from a 9-point deficit.

Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/clinton-nearly-doubles-lead-over-trump-in-latest-cnbc-survey.html

Catch 22 for the GOP.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/republicans-who-support-hillary-clinton/494636/
You have to admire those GOP politicians speaking out against Trump. Many don't have the balls or the ethics.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's path to victory is to win all of the red states on this map plus one of the gray states:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-wins-heres-how-the-map-might-look




As of when I'm making this post, Trump has all the red states but three (Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina). And he is gaining ground in Florida:
http://electionbettingodds.com

Of course, gaining North Carolina, Nevada and one of the gray states is easier said than done. As the map looks now it is going to be a very narrow Hillary victory. But the race is a lot closer than you might think. All we need is to have these polls be slightly wrong in Hillary's favor and we could be looking at a very narrow Trump victory come election day.

Quote Oralloy:


Hard as it is to believe, I agree with you. And the polls don't even have to be wrong, just experience a decent surge in some states. After studying the popular vote counts and Electoral vote counts via Wikipedia well into the 1800s, one thing stands clear-a little shift in the popular vote makes an enormous shift in the Electoral vote. Because most states still use the principle that even a one vote victory in the popular vote yields ALL of the state's Electoral votes going to that candidate, if a candidate is losing by say, 3 points in the national polls a few days before Election Day, these Electoral Maps will show him 60 or 70 Electoral votes behind. But if he surges and captures the popular vote even by a close margin, (or even comes close to pulling even), that will put that candidate ahead in several close states, (and set his opponent down by the same margin), and the Electoral College Map shifts accordingly.

Add in the fact that state polls are enormously volatile-they can go up or down in the space of a weekend, and Trump's 5 or 6 point deficit in the polls is not insurmountable. Dammit.

PS: Al Gore was down by 8 points in the national polls 10 days before Election Day, and surged to capture the popular vote by over half a percentage point. The Electoral College story and all the rest everyone is familiar with. But the point is-a candidate can surge late.

Some movement on the BBC poll. Clinton 49% Trump 45%.

I recently did the math on 4%, and the number is huge. By my estimate, it translates to more than 500,000 votes. Maybe, somebody can calculate what they come up with.

More movement, Clinton 49%, Trump 46%.

Maybe those third parties are losing their luster?

Unfortunately both Stein and Johnson are airheads unfit for office. There is no credible alternative to Clinton, and there should be.

Seems 46% of Trumpsters disagree with you.

That's their prerogative, but as Paxman said, Clinton is a terrible candidate but Trump is nuts and Stein and Johnson are both bloody idiots.

He's got Florida on the election betting site -- at least at the moment of this post; it'll probably wobble back and forth a few times.

Kind of hard to see him gaining one of the gray states though without the polls being wrong.

Let's ignore the fact that Trump is trailing in North Carolina by 2-6 points in the latest polls because then you can use fairy dust to make your argument he might win if he only wins one other state he is trailing by 8 points in.

It really doesn't matter, because Hillary already has over 300 electoral votes. The game is over.

I agree with all three statements. Isn't this year odd?

oralloy wrote:



Florida is tied according to Real Clear Politics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

Pennsylvania, which the Republicans are forever saying is in play for them, once more is not. PA has Hillary 5.8 points ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

Wisconsin is also in grey but Hillary is 5.8 points ahead there as well. All these figures are averages of 10 polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html

Nah. Let's keep watching North Carolina.



No fairy dust. If Trump wins North Carolina, Nevada, and just one of the gray states, he wins the election.