Hillary Ahead By 14 Points. Trump In A Tailspin.

Movement on the BBC poll. Clinton drops to 47%, Trump moves up to 43%.

They just finished the Alfred E. smith dinner, which is named after the first Catholic nominee for President and is usually a conservative audience. They ended up booing Trump, he stunk the place out. By being Trump.

Quote izzy:

There are two polls which lean way Republican. The Rasmussen Poll, which has leaned far Republican for years and is frequently mentioned by conservative talk show hosts, and the LA Times poll which is having some weird issues this election. If one of those polls is among the five most recent polls published by Real Clear Politics, the average of the BBC Poll of Polls will suddenly lean more Republican.

You sure? I never considered the LA Times anything but liberal.

The paper's editorial stance is not conservative, but something about its polling this year is causing a big shift in the pro-Trump direction. Basically, take the LA Times poll, add about 5 or 6 points for Hillary, and you are in line with all the other polls. Something about breaking the respondents up into such small groups that just one respondent can throw everything off.

Here's a thread on it:
http://able2know.org/topic/348685-1

Simply amazing. Glad we can still have these little side discussions, too.

Same here.

The BBC poll is more cautious. Here's a link where they say how they arrived at their poll of polls. It's not changed since yesterday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37450661

Yes, they take the five polls with the most recent polling date in Real Clear Politics' poll listing and uses the median figure. However, if the LA Times / USC poll, which has problems and leans strongly to Trump this year, and Rasmussen, which is essentially an arm of the Republican party, is included in those five, then that skews the poll slightly Trumpward. The LA Times is included in the present BBC figure, Rasmussen is not.

The BBC says it simply takes the median out of the 5 most recent polls. That means it can have swings depending on which polls come out that day.

For instance today, 3 polls came out. IBP, Rasmussen and LA Times. 2 showed Trump leading which they have consistently because they are outliers and the third had Clinton up by only 2. That means the median with previous polls would suddenly put Clinton up by only 2.

But 2 days ago, when 4 polls came out they had Clinton up by 9, 7, 6 and 4 which would have meant Clinton was up by 6.

Any day you include both Rasmussen and LA Times polls will drop Clinton's numbers to the lowest of a dozen other polls that have her in the lead from 2 - 12 points.

After certain poll failings they're understandably cautious. Brexit wasn't supposed to happen and we were supposed to have another hung parliament, that's what the polls said.

I've just been reading about the history of polls, and subsequent difficulties with them. Well, not the whole article yet as I fell asleep. Nothin' like a data filled article to send me sn00zing at midnight..

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine
Nov 16, 2015 - Jill Lepore on how polling shapes politics, and on how data science is changing political forecasting.

After I finish that, I might check out this one -

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466405233/polling-is-ubiquitous-but-is-it-bad-for-democracy
That's Terry Gross interviewing Jill Lepore, probably repetition of the first link, but may be an interesting conversation.

I wondered where you came up with that as I read something a little different on another piece, but then on the same piece there was a link which referenced what you said about boos.

Here is the first one: Cardinal: Trump, Clinton were different in private

Here is the one which link was embedded in the link above. Trump, Clinton Trade Biting Jokes at Al Smith Dinner After Fiery Debate

They covered the dinner on various channels. On MSNBC, they showed the parts where Trump stopped being lighthearted and got boorish, and the boos were clear. The Cardinal, who was the head of the dinner, was whispering over to Hillary apparently to say something nice to compensate for Trump's typical behavior. That was covered on the Rachel Maddow Show and the Lawrence O'Donnell show.

Oh well, I took a break from politics last night last, probably will tonight. Read a good book last night, having a gospel meeting tonight. Hopefully no politics, but you never know. If it is, in our church, it will quickly be put down.

I have never trusted polls. They depend on how the questions were presented and who they were presented to.

I agree; we need to see the question with the answers.

Movement on the BBC polls, both candidates are on the up. Clinton 50%, Trump 44%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37450661

Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero
Source: Washington Post

The election is in 15 days. And the electoral map just keeps looking grimmer and grimmer for Donald Trump.

We are making three changes to The Fix map this week, all favoring Hillary Clinton.


First, we are moving Nevada, where Trump had shown surprising strength for much of this year, from "toss up" to "lean Democratic" amid signs that the state is slipping away from him. Clinton has led in six of the last seven polls in the state — the other showed the race a tie — and now has an average lead of more than four points, according to Real Clear Politics. Trump's collapse in the state is badly impacting Republicans's chances of winning Sen. Harry Reid's (D) open seat. Rep. Joe Heck (R), who led for much of the year, now finds himself behind former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D).

We're also moving Utah — yes, Utah! — from "lean Republican" to "toss up" as independent candidate Evan McMullin, a Utah native and Mormon, continues to show considerable polling resiliency in the Beehive State. Count us as skeptical that Clinton can win in such a Republican state. But McMullin is taking lots of Republican voters away from Trump, and it's not out of the question the third party candidate wins the state's six electoral votes.

And, finally — and much to our amazement — we are adding Texas to our list of competitive states, rating it as "lean Republican." The last three polls taken in the state have shown Trump ahead by three points (twice) and four points; the Real Clear Politics polling average in the state puts Trump up 4.6 points. It speaks to how badly Trump is performing even in longtime Republican strongholds that the debate going forward won't be whether Texas should stay on the list of competitive races but whether it should move to "toss up."

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/

RealClearPolitics average of polls show Clinton ahead by 5 points. It's dated today, 10/25/16.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-state-of-the-presidential-race-two-weeks-from-election-day/