It's always interesting to come a day or two late to these
"breaking news" threads to see what wild theories were cooked up before the facts were known and who was closest to the mark.
Right now it appears that President Obama, PM Cameron of the UK, PM Tony Abbot of Australia and PM Stephen Harper of Canada are all on the verge of saying flat out what everyone knows: the Malaysian passenger jet was brought down by a sophisticated missile fired by Ukrainian Separatists; and provided to them by Russia. Easy for them, the Western European states may say, they don't depend on Russia for any of their natural gas, nor have extensive economic ties with Putin. Certainly none of them are selling warships to Russia.
Since I don't think there is any chance the passenger jet was deliberately targeted (as opposed to being mistaken for a Ukrainian government airship) It seems the only real question to be answered is whether or not Russian Special Forces were on-site assisting the rebels or actually pulling the trigger themselves. If the answer is yes the level of public outrage will, of course, increase, but it isn't required to warrant a tough response from the rest of the world.
The Eastern European nations seem to be in favor of tougher sanctions despite the fact that they depend more heavily on Russian natural gas than do the Western European states, but they also have a lot more to fear from Russian aggression.
Andrea Merkel has already signaled to both Obama and Putin that she has little interest in or stomach for a response that exceeds the puny additional sanctions imposed on Wednesday, and no intention of connecting any dots and holding Russia directly responsible for the disaster:
Quote:Merkel called Wednesday’s move “an adequate response to what happened in the past few days,” although she noted that the European decision had left open the door to “act on a new level” if necessary.
Quote:German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday pressed Russia to work harder toward a political solution in Ukraine. But she also drew a line between the Russians and the separatists, saying that “the Russian president of course has an influence,” but “still one has to differentiate between the separatists and the Russian government.”
While there are some reports that attitudes in some of the capitals of the Western European nations are hardening, their economic ties to Russia are such that it's more likely that they will follow Merkel's lead and continue to tread lightly...
at least until the investigation is complete.
Which leads to the question,
what does anyone expect to find from this investigation? Everyone is calling for it and there has been particular anger over the fact that, thus far, the rebels have not only impeded it, but there is said to be film of them appearing to be looting the remains of the passengers.
Assuming the rebels and Russians haven't been able to remove all traces of the missile(s) that brought the plane down (which should be the case unless the investigation is stalled for days to come), what can they learn that we all don't already know? The investigators aren't going to find a recording of the rebels taunting the Malaysian Airlines pilot:
"Prepare to die at the hands of Ukrainian Separatists who were provided the missile that is about to kill you and your 295 passengers by Vladimir Putin, and which was actually fired by Russian Special Forces right here beside us!" They also aren't going to be able to interview the rebels, and even if they could all they would get are denials and lies.
Let's assume though that the Russians are able to impede the investigation long enough to remove any trace of the missile. In the absence of forensic evidence of, again, what we all know happened, are Merkel and the others prepared to dismiss the disaster as a mystery, and thereby avoid having to make the hard decision about additional sanctions?
Putin's Russia, not surprisingly, seems more and more like the old Soviet Union every day. The audacious mendacity in their response so far has been striking. They are blaming the Ukrainian government because a) It happened in their airspace, and b) Because they haven't resolved the conflict with the rebels (which apparently means allowing them to carve out another chunk of the country to become part of Russia). Amazingly, it is implicit in "b" that the Russians are acknowledging the rebels shot the plane down and yet the kabuki dance of the investigation is seen as essential. The cajones on this guy are colossal. He's also just cut of all natural gas to the Ukraine. Rather than act in any way remotely contrite, he's doubling down.
The sad truth of this matter is that without the blunder of the murderous rebels (keep in mind that they already shot down two Ukrainian planes with crews on board, and fully expected to be killing more Ukrainians with the missile that brought down the passenger jet), and the tragic deaths of almost 300 innocent people, Putin's plan to further carve up and steal territory from a sovereign state would likely have proceeded to a successful conclusion with little more than a
tsk tsk from the rest of the world.
If the US, and especially the Europeans recognize Putin as the very real threat he is, they will do the following without further dithering:
Provide the arms the Ukrainians have requested and need to defend their land, since it is clear no other nation is prepared to assist them militarily. That they have be denied these weapons thus far is not only a disgrace, it's just plain stupid as it encourages the sort of aggression Russia has engaged in with impunity and which led to this tragic disaster.
Do whatever it takes to shift Europe's supplier of natural gas from Russia to the US and as soon as possible.
Impose tough sanctions that can damage Russia’s economy. These flea bite sanctions against a few oligarch pals of Putin and the manufacturer of the missile system believe to be involved in this disaster have no meaningful impact. In fact Putin and his cronies have mocked them.
Putin is not Hitler, the Ukraine isn't the Sudetenland and neither President Obama nor Chancellor Merkel are Neville Chamberlain, but the formula here is as old as international politics (and that includes relations between two neighboring tribes of Neanderthals), perceived weakness invites aggression, and a weak response to aggression invites more and greater aggression.
