@sozobe,
Quote:I guess all I'm saying is that we're not at "more likely than not" yet. It's still possible,
All a "more likely than not" says is that there's over a 50% chance that such and such is the case. A speaker could be saying I feel that "51% to 49% that such and such is the case".
A "still possible", ie. "that
may be the case", could say pretty much the same thing, with 'may' being the epistemic [level of certainty] modal choice for those situations up to 50%.