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Who will win the senatorial election in Massachusetts ?

 
 
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 06:33 pm
Here's the chance for all you prognosticators. Who will win it? Brown or ole whatshername?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 25 • Views: 16,293 • Replies: 339

 
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 06:34 pm
@georgeob1,
Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate. It is Massachusetts ya know.
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 06:35 pm
my guess, one of the folks on the ballot

although i always pull for none of the above as a write in when ever there's an election
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 06:35 pm
What a loon . . . the candy date who gets the most votes, of course.
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ebrown p
 
  4  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 06:39 pm
@georgeob1,
Intrade is making Brown a 4-1 favorite; you can buy an option for $2.50 that will pay $10 if Coakley wins. I couldn't get money into an account with this short notice, but there is no way that this isn't a great deal.

My take (to be honest, I admit I haven't a clue on this one)... but here goes,

I think the fact that this has now become such a big deal will drive up voter turnout, meaning that in Democratic Massachusetts, Coakley wins.

But then again, the fact that the Democrats control the White House and both houses of Congress in an off year election in a tough political climate could mean that the Republican can win this.

Then again the Democratic GOTV organization in Massachusetts could put Coakley barely over the top.

But then again Brown is a charismatic candidate who has pulled off the impressive trick of tapping into the unhappy tea party crowd without turning off the independents could mean he can squeak out a win.

I am biting my nails on this one, it really depends on who shows up.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:03 pm
@ebrown p,
First time I have ever found myself agreeing with ebrown p.

The consequences, of course will be significant. I suspect both parties are revving up their propaganda for both win and lose right now.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:05 pm
@ebrown p,
I haven't been following this closely, Andrew Sullivan is gloomy but he's not always right about these things. Nate Silver, who is usually GREAT about this stuff, is complaining about the difficulty of figuring things out within one state as opposed to a national race.

I'm depressed that Obama has to campaign for her so hard, sure wish there was just a more worthy Democratic candidate who could win handily on his/ her own. So I'm pulling for her both as the 60th vote and because it's inevitably going to be seen as a referendum on Obama blahblahblah if she loses.
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:11 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
First time I have ever found myself agreeing with ebrown p.


Didn't you say that the last time you agreed with me?
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:15 pm
@sozobe,
I believe there is no other way to interpret this election. Massachusetts is a normally Democrat state; it already has a new health care system with very similar features to those in the pending Senate version of health care legislation - and reportedly already subject to widespread dissatisfaction; this is an election to fill a seat in the Senate that has been in Democrat hands for 40 years - one held by the chief long-term Democrat proponent of government-managed health care for others (not himself) - also an advocate of green energy, except not in his neighborhood.

The President has boldly gone out on a limb in campaigning for his candidate and emphasizing the high stakes with respect to his agenda,

I can't see how the stakes here could be any higher.

However, I don't have any intuition about who will win.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:16 pm
@ebrown p,
ebrown p wrote:

Quote:
First time I have ever found myself agreeing with ebrown p.


Didn't you say that the last time you agreed with me?


It's conceivable - if there was such a time. We do appear to be polar opposites.
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:17 pm
@ebrown p,
When was the last time the Republicans won a senate seat in Massachusetts?

Edward Brooke (Elected) January 3, 1979
(Lost re-election)

When was the last time, the Republicans held a Massachusetts seat in the US Congress?

The only seat the Republicans can ever grab in Massachusetts is their gubernatorial seat.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:18 pm
@georgeob1,
Well, Sullivan has been running a lot of letters from people saying "Hey, I love Obama and am glad I voted for him but I don't like this Coakley person and I don't want to vote her into office where she can do things that actually affect me just because of the 60th vote issue. There are other things that are important to me, too." (That's a paraphrase.)
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:19 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:


It's conceivable - if there was such a time. We do appear to be polar opposites.


No we don't Wink
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:21 pm
@ebrown p,
I disagree !!!! Laughing
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 07:22 pm
@sozobe,
Andrew Sullivan is an allegedly reformed Bush lackey. Of course, he's finally returning to his true nature.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 08:33 pm
@sozobe,
I respect your views on this Soz, and understand the depth of your long-term support for President Obama. However, I believe the weight of the evidence here very strongly points to this election as effectively a referendum on the Administration and its torturous rationalizations of increased spending and taxation in the teeth of a serious economic recession.

Worse still are the forceful pursuit of added entitlements; unionization and regulation of energy policy, all of which will put added burdens on an already troubled economy at a time when we face ever greater external economic competition. I think even many who were inclined to support him in this have been disillusioned by the often blatant payoffs to Democrat Senators, labor unions, interest groups and others. It all smacks of a rather strange kind of zealotry - folks who appear convinced beyond doubt that they know what's good for us and who are willing to do almost anything to achieve it, no matter how unpropitious the moment may be. It all suggests a certain lack of common sense.
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 08:45 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
I respect your views on this Soz, and understand the depth of your long-term support for President Obama. However, I believe the weight of the evidence here very strongly points to this election as effectively a referendum on the Administration and its torturous rationalizations of increased spending and taxation in the teeth of a serious economic recession.


I don't agree with this-- especially in an off year election in Massachusetts. I bet if people were given an actual referendum on Obama's policies in Massachusetts, he would win with over 60%.

The story of this election is independents and moderately involved voters being underwhelmed by a Democratic candidate who very obviously thought (until recently) that she would be strolling to victory-- faced with a superbly run campaign on the other side.

A well-run Democratic campaign that fully supported Obama's agenda from the start would have done quite well. It would have had the added benefit of forcing a wedge between Brown's true-believer tea party base, and the independent voters he is successfully wooing with his "independent schtick".

If Brown wins, it is not because Massachusetts voters hate Obama. It is because he won the battle of narrative and the battle of charisma.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 08:52 pm
@ebrown p,
Well we have both interpreted the scene from different perspectives and have come to very different conclusions. We'll have to await the unfolding of events to see it all better. Then we'll very likely still disagree.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  3  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 09:20 pm
I don't think Coakley deserves to win. Voters deserve some attention even if it's just a glad hand here and there.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Jan, 2010 09:34 pm
@ebrown p,
ebrown p wrote:

[I don't agree with this-- especially in an off year election in Massachusetts. I bet if people were given an actual referendum on Obama's policies in Massachusetts, he would win with over 60%.

The story of this election is independents and moderately involved voters being underwhelmed by a Democratic candidate who very obviously thought (until recently) that she would be strolling to victory-- faced with a superbly run campaign on the other side.

A well-run Democratic campaign that fully supported Obama's agenda from the start would have done quite well. It would have had the added benefit of forcing a wedge between Brown's true-believer tea party base, and the independent voters he is successfully wooing with his "independent schtick".

If Brown wins, it is not because Massachusetts voters hate Obama. It is because he won the battle of narrative and the battle of charisma.



When one considers the stakes involved here with respect to the central issue of the Presidential campaign and one on which now President Obama has staked his political fortune, particularly given the president's unequivocal appeal to the voters over precisely these issues, .... it is very hard to coinclude that a candidate who is the potential 60th Democrat vote in the Senate - at this critical moment - could lose ONLY because of a relative lack of charisma or the superior campaign tactics of her opponent.

This really doesn't pass the common sense test.
 

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