Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

ARIZONA Senate Race.
Rasmussen has a new poll (4/16) showing incumbent John McCain's lead over J.D. Hayworth continuing to narrow in the contest for the Republican nomination. Hayworth, a former member of Congress and now a conservative talk show host, trails McCain 42% to 47%. A month ago it was 41% to 48%. In January it was 31% to 53% but that was probably before he had declared his intention to run.
Hayworth has been relentlessly pounding McCain as not being conservative enough for AZ. There could be, I think, a more subtle message that his age may be a factor.
McCain has rounded up endorsements from many prominent Republicans, including Sarah Palin, his running mate in 2008.
Hayworth, meanwhile, is actively courting supporters of the Teaparty movement.

80% of Repubs in AZ say that their views coincide with those of Teaparty members than with President Obama. No surprise. Of those, 49% favor Hayworth vs 42% for McCain.
We probably will not have to wait until Nov 2nd to declare a winner. Mark your calendar for Aug 24th when the Repubs choose. Businessman Rodney Gussman is the only declared Dem running. He trails either Repub by double digits.
I would be stunned if McCain loses. But I am wondering whether, after the (in my mind) poor campaign he ran in 2008, whether his staff is all that competent.

I see it is about 90 degrees in Phoenix today.

UTAH Senate Race
Incumbent Republican Bob Bennett looks to be in serious trouble in this deeply conservative state. As with John McCain in AZ, he stands accused of not being sufficiently to the right.
Rasmussen's poll (4/15) of likely Republican voters has Bennett getting 37% support. Two other contenders for the nomination get 14% and there are 3 others in single digits. A whopping 24% are unsure or favor some other candidate.
But the poll of Republican voters is irrelevant at this point because of Utah's "quirky" nomination process. That is the National Review's choice of a word.
The magazine explains the process: delegates will get together on May 8th and hold 3 rounds of voting. If a candidate gets 60% of the vote, he/she will become the party's nominee. I assume that between votes some candidates will drop out and throw their support to another candidate.
If, after 3 rounds of this, no one gets to 60%, the top 2 will face off in a primary election on June 22nd.
75% of the delegates are new this year. It is unclear how loyal they might be to Bennett. The other candidates are more conservative than he is and may, in the course of the voting, coalesce against him.
Bennett has an 18% unfavorable rating from Republicans polled. That is quite high for an incumbent within his own party.
Clearly, as with John McCain in AZ and Charlie Crist in FL, the Teaparty movement is having an effect in UT.
May 8th is the date to watch. Mark it on your calendars.

FLASH!
Florida Senate Race (4/19):
Governor Charlie Crist said today that he is considering quitting his quest for the Republican nomination for the Senate. Instead he may opt to run as an independent.
I reported on the FL race back on 2/23. Senator Mel Martinez (R) resigned in mid-2009. Crist appointed George LeMiuex (R) to finish the term but not seek election in 2010. Crist wanted the seat for himself.
Things looked fine for awhile. But then Crist supported President Obama's stimulus programs. That was hugely unpopular amongst FL Repubicans.
And then came along, entering from stage right, Marco Rubio, with big support from Teaparty and other conservative voters.
The last poll I saw had Crist losing to Rubio by some 30 points.
If he were to run as an independent against Rubio (the House Speaker) and the Democrat, congressman Kendrick Meek, it could be a three-way horse race.
The Republican leadership in FL and nationally - most of whom have endorsed Rubio - are not at all pleased with Crist today.
He has to decide whether to drop out of the Republican primary and get on the ballot as an independent by April 30th.

Crist will run as an independent, he's too deep now to turn back and he could win.

Cycloptichorn

I think he will also, Cyclo. He is more than a bit pissed at the Republican establishment for abandoning him in favor of Rubio. And, yes, in a 3-way race he matches up well.
Kendrick Meek, the Democrat, is probably happy. He would go from being the sacrificial lamb for the Dems to actually having a chance.
A Meek win would be a take-away from the Repubs in the Senate.

It makes me happy, because it will suck up a huge amount of both attention and money from the NRSC. The effects reach far beyond the FL race, and will negatively impact the Republicans to a large degree this cycle. This is why they are all so pissed right now at Crist. Can't say I blame them.

It would personally make me ecstatic to see Crist get elected, not because I like him - he's a twit - but because Republicans have such a hard-on for Marc Rubio.

Cycloptichorn

INDIANA Senate Race (4/19):
I add another page to my elections notebook.
Senator Evan Bayh (D) surprised everyone earlier in the Spring when he said he would not run in November.
It looks like it could be a great opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a Senate seat.
President Obama carried IN by a 50%-49% margin. But his approval rating has slumped now to 39% which is well below what it is nationally.
Brad Elsworth is the Dem nominee. The member of the House voted in favor of the health care bill. 65% of those polled in IN support repeal of that law. That is much higher than the rate nationally.
There are 3 candidates seeking the nomination of Repubs. Dan Coats used to be Senator but retired a few years ago. John Hostettler is a former member of Congress. They lead the Dem, Elsworth, by double digits. State Senator Marvin Stutzman leads Elsworth my mid-single digits.
The Republican primary is May 4th.

WISCONSIN (4/22)
Republican former Gov and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson has decided not to run for the Senate seat held by the incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold.
That is good news for Feingold. In earlier Rasmussen polls he trailed Thompson by low single digits. He does better against the remaining declared or potential Republicans, albeit by narrowing margins.
Feingold (D), incumbent: 49%
Terrance Wall (R), real estate entrepreneur: 43%

Feingold (D): 49%
Dave Westlake (R), businessman: 38%

Feingold (D): 48%
Richard Leinenkugel (R), former Secy of the WI Dept of Commerce: 37%

Leinenkugel has not declared but his recent resignation suggests to some that he will jump in. The Repub primary is Sept 14th.

53% of likely voters in WI favor repeal of the health care plan. Of those who strongly favor repeal, about 70% intend to vote for a Repub. Of those who strongly oppose repeal 85% plan to vote for Feingold.

The fact that Feingold can't at this point break through 50% is viewed by Rasmussen as potentially troubling for Feingold. In addition, 32% regard him very unfavorably. That is high.
President Obama carried WI with 56% of the vote. His approval rating now is in line with the national number of 48%.
Feingold won in 2004 55%-44%.

MARYLAND GOVERNOR RACE
Here is an update from Rasmussen as of 4/23rd and with Bob Elrilch now formally in the race:
O'Malley (D): 47%
Ehrilch (R): 44%

ARIZONA GOVERNOR (4/21)
I didn't plan on covering races for Gov until later in the Fall. But this contest is worth commenting on because Jan Brewer, the Republican incumbent, made national news today. She signed a bill giving state and local police the ability "when practicable" to detain people they "reasonably suspect" may be in the country without authorization. The quotes are from the NY Times 2 hours ago.
Brewer became Gov when Janet Napolitano joined the Obama admistration as head of Homeland Security.
Rasmussen did a poll on 4/21 regarding how she and 3 other Repubs would fare against the Democrat, Terry Goddard. She is the Attorney General.

Jan Brewer (R): 44%
Terry Goddard: 40%

Dean Martin (R), State Treasurer: 47%
Terry Goddard (D): 34%

John Munger (R), AZ Repub Party head: 44%
Terry Goddard (D): 37%

Buz Mills (R), businessman: 46%
Terry Goddard: 37%

The Repub primary is August 24th.

We have talked before about the anti-incumbent mood of many voters in the country. 60% of likely voters in AZ agree with that. But, unlike other states where that sentiment drops off when asked about their own incumbent, Brewer is still very high at 50%.
The economy in AZ, to use technical jargon, "sucks." They have severe budget problems. 3% of likely voters describe the situation as good or excellent. 58% say it is bad.
This all translates into a 23% unfavorable rating of Brewer. Goddard, though, is close behind at 20%. The others are lower but are also less well known.
Obama lost AZ to McCain by something like 45%-55%. His approval rating holds at about that level.
I hope that someone amongst the 3 of you following this thread can talk about the races in AZ.

FLORIDA SENATE RACE
Just a reminder to both of you watching this thread that Republican Governor Charlie Crist has until the close of business on Friday to make a decision regarding his quest for the open Senate seat. He can stay in as a Republican where he is trailing FL House Speaker Marco Rubio by some 20 points. He can drop out. Or he can bolt the Republican party and run as an independent.
I am 99% confident that, having pissed off just about everyone in the Repub party, he will take the independent route.
A recent Rasmussen poll (around 4/24):
Marco Rubio (R): 37%
Charlie Crist (I): 30%
Kendrick Meek (D) - member of Congress: 22%
Undecided: 11%

Today, Crist, who previously favored more off-shore drilling for oil in the gulf and in the Atlantic, is back-peddling rapidly due to the oil spill from a rig exploding off LA. The ensuing oil slick may land in FL.

There is, of course, a lot of question about whether Crist can, running as an independent, raise the $20M to run an effective campaign. I think he can.

Marco Rubio is a darling of the Teaparty people. It will be interesting to see if they are organized enough to rally behind him financially if Crist makes it a closer race.

FLORIDA SENATE
As predicted, Gov Charlie Crist bolted from the Republican party today. He will run for the open Senate seat as an Independent against Marco Rubio (R) and the presumed (D), Kendrick Meek.
The AP had an early story containing this mystifying sentence: "His chances appear slim...but Crist had a tiny lead (in one poll) in a three way race with Rubio and Meek."
Sure enough, he will probably lose most of his staff who don't want to have their careers linked to someone who abandoned the Repub party. Campaign donations may dry up as he loses access to Republican donor and volunteer lists.

Good evening. There are a couple of new Rasmussen polls out. No major changes.
NEVADA SENATE (4/29)
Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) continues to match up badly with any of the 3 Repubs wanting to replace him as he seeks his 5th term.
Reid garners only about 40% support from likely voters. He won in 2004 with a 61% share of the votes.
He has a stunningly high 47% unfavorable rating as he is on the wrong side, in the minds of many Nevada voters, on health care and immigration.
Interestingly, President Obama gets an approval rating of 48% vs 51% disapproval.
I think we can chalk this up as a turnover from a Dem seat to a Repub.

ILLINOIS SENATE (4/30)
This contest is for the seat that President Obama won by a margin of 62% - 37%.
Things are looking a bit bleak now for the Dems in what is typically a blue state.
Mark Kirk (R), a House member, comes in at 46% vs 41% last month.
Alexi Giannoulias (D), state treasurer, is at 38% vs 44%.

Members of the Giannoulias family controlled the troubled Broadway Bank. It was taken over by the FDIC last week. The candidate worked for the bank until about 4 years ago.
Most voters who describe themselves as independents say that the Broadway Bank issue could influence their vote.

Three primary elections today (5/4):
Indiana Republicans will select a Senate candidate while Democrats do the same in Ohio and North Carolina.

New Ras poll on FL Senate!

Election 2010: Florida Senate
Florida Senate: Crist 38%, Rubio 34%, Meek 17%

Ras is a Conservative-leaning poll, so I would bet that Crist is actually farther in the lead then this.

So excited about this race - it will cost the Republicans a ton of money and effort to win this now, and they had considered it a lock before!

Cycloptichorn

Indeed. What a stunning turnaround.

FLORIDA SENATE (5/4):
First a recap. Mel Martinez (R) resigned from the Senate in mid-2009. Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed George LeMiurk to finish the term and agree to not run for election in 2010. That way, Crist could run for the seat.
All went well until (a) Marco Rubio, the attractive Cuban-American House Speaker burst on the scene just as the anti-incumbent mood caught hold. And Rubio also became the poster boy for the conservative movement with support from many who agree with the philosophy expressed by those who support Teaparty ideals. And (b), Crist supported President Obama's economic stimulus program. That rankled many Republicans in Florida and nationally.
In a Rasmussen poll of likely Republican voters on 4/12, Rubio collected 57% while Crist could muster only 28%. It was clear Crist would not win in a Republican primary.
In a poll of likely voters, however, either Crist or Rubio would easily defeat Kendrick Meek, the likely Democrat on the ballot. He is a member of the U.S. House.
Rasmussen did a "what if?" poll on 4/22 when it became apparent that Crist might be considering leaving the Republican party and running as an independent.
Sure enough, Crist did decide to bolt and go it alone.
Which leads us to the 1st poll after the official decision:
Crist (I) .......... (4/22): 30% (5/4): 38%
Rubio (R) ....... (4/22): 37% (5/4): 34%
Meek (D) ........ (4/22): 22% (5/4): 17%
Unsure ........... (4/22): 11% (5/4): 11%
We can see that the declared Indy Crist got a good bounce vs the hypothetical Indy Crist, gaining almost equally from Rubio and Meek.

Crist rubbed a little salt in the wound today by repeating his support of the economic stimulus package and, in the wake of the huge oil spill in the Gulf, he backpedaled big time on his support of more drilling off the FL coast.
Hang on, I am almost done. A few more notes:
> 62% of likely voters give Crist a favorable approval rating regarding his performance as Governor.
> 56% of those polled favor the primary process but 55% say that, at some point in their voting lives, they have voted for an independent. Democrats more then Republicans tend to stay loyal to the candidate of their party.
> Crist is viewed Very Favorably by 25% and Very Unfavorably by 16%. Rubio comes in at 18% and 22% while the less well known Meek is 10% and 17%.
As I understand Rasmussen's logic, this reports on those who could be hard core supporters or opponents of a particular candidate; unlikely to be swayed.

FL could be one of the most fascinating elections this Fall. It is much too early to speculate which party Crist, if he is successful, would caucus with. Clearly he has burned a lot of bridges with his former Republican brethren.

Confirmation of a Crist lead in the three-way race.

Mason-Dixon: Crist 38, Rubio 32, Meek 19

However, the pollster warns that Meeks is still only at 40% name rec., so he likely will rise and Crist fall a bit.

Cycloptichorn

So this will come to a head tomorrow. I am leaning slightly towards Bennett not getting the nod.

UTAH SENATE (5/8):
Minutes ago, Bob Bennett, the incumbent Republican, was rejected by his party in his bid for a 4th 6-year term. He becomes the 1st incumbent member of the House or Senate to be sent packing.
I tried to explain how the UT Republican convention voting would work.
In the 1st round of voting, attorney Mike Lee got 28.75% of the some 3500 votes. Tim Bridgewater got 26.34% while Bennett finished with 25.91%. Cherilyn Eager, who was supported by folks favoring the Teaparty movement, ended at 15.83%. Four other candidates split the remaining 3%.
In the 2nd round, the vote was amongst the top 3. Bridgewater got 37%, Lee ended with 35% while Bennett finished with 27%. He got no support from Ms Eager's people.
There will be a 3rd vote later on today to see if Bridgewater or Lee can get to 60%. If neither does, they will face off in a Republican primary on June 22nd.