Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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@ehBeth,

Somebody actually reads this? Amazing!

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@realjohnboy,

I'm reading, too, RJB.

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Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats?

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In my piece a couple of weeks ago, I wrote that there was only a 1 in 10 chance that Democrats would lose more than 55 seats in November. Having now looked at this issue in somewhat more detail, that clearly seems to be a lowball estimate. While there is other statistical and anecdotal evidence that one can point toward that is relatively more favorable to Democrats, and while there are other techniques, like a district-by-district analysis, that could be applied to this problem instead -- if you could get 9:1 odds (a 1-in-10 chance) on the Democrats losing more than 55 seats in the House, that would be a good bet.

And what if, for example, the Rasmussen case comes into being? Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss for Democrats. Or, if we adjust the Rasmussen poll to account for the fact that the Democrats' performance in the popular vote tends to lag the generic ballot, it works out to a 12.4-point loss in the popular vote, which implies a loss of 79 seats!

Full story at the link above.

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In maryland our dear governor O'malley keeps supporting illegal aliens to a tune of $2billion of our tax $$ every year. Crime has tripled over the past few years and its not getting any better. Illegal aliens in md are working our state highways, landscaping and contracting jobs and they are voting. Election year. Vote our O'malley, Mike miller and mike Busch the 3 corrupt stooges that destroyed our state.

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@amdactivist,

I haven't even begun writing about the many races for Governor. But since you mentioned O'Malley in Maryland, here is a summary of the Rasmussen poll from 2/26.
The incumbent, Martin O'Malley (D): 49%
Bob Ehrilch (R), former Governor: 43%

As of 2/26 Ehrilch had not formally said he was running. Has he declared yet?
If he is in the race it would set up a rematch of the 2006 contest in which O'Malley, then the mayor of Baltimore, defeated the incumbent Ehrilch 53% to 46%. Ehrilch was the first elected Republican Gov in 40 years.
Maryland is a solid blue state. President Obama took 62% of the vote and he still has an approval rating of 59% which is much higher that what he has nationally.
Note that in the 2/26 poll only 8% responded other/undecided. That is very low this early and with Ehrilch not having officially running.
21% (including amdactivist) view O'Malley "very unfavorably," vs 18% for Ehrilch. Those numbers are pretty high.

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@realjohnboy,

I haven't seen a poll on New Mexico, but I got a request for contribution yesterday from Pete Domenici for Governor. I will sent maybe $20.00 because he is well and thouroughly endorsed by his dad, who is also known as Pete Domenici (by remarkable coincidence). Republicans have an uphill battle in NM, but Domenici is as 'name brand' as it gets in this state.

Pete the elder was our US Senator for as long as I can remember, and retired due to Alzheimers, or something of the sort. It is a persuasive endorsement. Primary election is June 1.

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@roger,

New Mexico Governor's Race (3/27)

Pete Domenici Jr is one of 5 Republicans vying for the nomination in the June 1st primary. The winner will face Lt Gov Diane Denish in the fall. Current Gov Bill Richardson is term-limited.
It will be a daunting challenge for any of the 5 in a state that President Obama carried with 57% of the vote. He still has a 54% approval rating.
Rasmussen has Denish leading any of the Repubs by around 50% to 35%. That could tighten after June 1 when Repubs have decided on a candidate.
I find it interesting that Richardson, despite being a lame duck, has a remarkably high unfavorable number: 33%. I don't know what that is about or whether that will spill over to Denish.

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Florida Senate (4/12)
Charlie Crist Can't Get No Respect

Gov Crist (R) continues to lose ground in his quest to win his party's nomination to succeed Mel Martinez (R) . State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) leads 57% to 28%. Rubio's numbers aren't going up in the poll of "likely Republican" voters. Crist's numbers simply are dropping...hard.
Crist had the support early on of the Repub establishment. But then he supported President Obama's economic stimulus plan and Rubio, a very dynamic Cuban-American, aligned himself with the Teaparty movement. Amongst Repubs who describe themselves as "conservative," Rubio leads Crist by 40 points.
The Dem candidate waiting to get crushed in Nov is Kendrick Meek, a member of the House of Rep. He trails by about 15 points.

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@realjohnboy,

It won't. Denish and Richardson are not what you would call close. One little flap that comes to mind is during Richardson's presidential campaign. Governor gets a state police protective detail, of course. He thought it inappropriate that she should receive the same while filling in for him.

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Forgive me for tossing this in for the benefit of our foreign audience here who might believe we can't outdo the Brits or Aussies when it comes to politicians doing really, really stupid things involving sex.
Marco Rubio may or may not have been involved in some kind of potential misuse of Repub money in Florida. It is probably no big deal.
But it comes on the heals of the story that someone connected with the National Republican party thought it would be a lot of fun to spend a few thousand dollars treating potential donors to a visit to, are you ready for this, "a lesbian strip joint on bondage night."
How awesomely stupid was that?
I swear I don't make this stuff up.

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@realjohnboy,

Thanks, RJB.
Always good to get the inside info so one can fully understand what you're all talking about. (A bit elusive sometimes.)

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@realjohnboy,

I know. I've been reading about it. It wasn't someone "connected with", it was the chairman of the Republican National Committee. Michael Steel, if I recall correctly. This could be tough on the donor base.

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Stunts like that would make my blood boil if I'd donated to their organization. Better to find candidates that share your interests and donate to the individual, IMO.

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@Irishk,

I think donors used to be limited to a max amount per candidate, but could give as much as they wanted to the party in general. That's what was meant by the expression "soft money". This may have been changed recently, but I didn't pay enough attention to details.

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@realjohnboy,

Didn't Richardson have some 'bad' story break about him when there was talk about him joining the Obama administration and he decided to pull out of that job offer and stay as governor of NM?

I would imagine that might have something to do with it.

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@maporsche,

yes, there was quite a bit of chatter re Richardson ranging from simple csorruption to criminal coverups. Nothing seemed to come of it.

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NEW JERSEY
No, there is not a senate race in NJ this year. But, according to Rasmussen on 4/16, there is a move afoot to try to get a measure on the ballot to recall Robert Mendendez (D). He was elected in 2006 by a margin of 53% to 45%.
He is not accused of any criminal act or some kind of moral turpitude thing. Rather, he voted against the wishes of the public by supporting the health care bill and should therefore be removed.
According to Rasmussen 45% of people polled approve of Mendendez while 45% disapprove. 51% of those polled oppose the health law. That is a bit lower than the nationwide number.
It appears that the recall option is legal in NJ with regards to officials elected to state positions. Less clear is whether it also to applies to people elected to federal offices.
A judge will decide that but he has allowed the gathering of signatures required to put the issue on the ballot. One million signatures are needed.

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@realjohnboy,

I would like my Senator to vote my way all the time, too. That can't possibly be a basis for recall. Can it?

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@roger,

I had trouble getting my head around that, Roger. I guess it doesn't matter as long as a million people sign petitions to get the recall question onto a ballot.
I can't recall the details of what led to the recall of governor Gray Davis in CA. Was it alleged corruption or incompetence?

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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