Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Many of us would consider Bob Bennett to be a conservative. But Utah is a very conservative state and he strayed too far from his base. That, more than the anti-incumbent attitude, doomed him to defeat.
He stood accused of voting to bail out Wall Street and of supporting a bill to mandate health insurance. He also was chastised for too aggressively pursuing earmarks and for backing off on his 1992 pledge to not serve beyond 2010.
He also was a victim of an apparently out of state direct mail campaign regarding his affiliation with his religion: the Morman faith.
Some quotes from today-
Bennett: "Utahns are not taken in by special interests" and "Utahns reject the doomsayers and fear mongers who say this country will fail."
Lee: "Our government is too big because the Constitution has been ignored by Congress for too long. We are ready to get government's greedy hand out of our pocket and off 70% of our land."
Others: >No to amnesty for illegal immigrants >No cap and trade >Dismantle Obamacare >Kill Dept of Education >Withdraw from the UN.

I think you nailed it with that sentence, RJB. Paul Ryan also voted for TARP, but didn't/doesn't face the same kind of backlash. Different constituencies.

Bennett told the AP he's considering running as a 'write-in' candidate.

Thanks for dropping in, Irishk. I appreciate that someone is actually following this thread. I really should get a hobby.
Wait, this IS my hobby.

Ha!

OHIO SENATE (May 9th):
The Democrats held a primary and settled on Lt Gov Lee Fisher as their candidate. The race to the general election will now begin in earnest. It looks to be very close and the Dems think they have a rare chance to pick up a seat.
Veteran Republican George Voinovich is retiring.
The 1st Rasmussen poll was taken right after the primary and may reflect a temporary bounce for Fisher. But, per Rasmussen:
Lee Fisher (D): 43%
Rob Portman (Former House member) (R): 42%
Unsure/Other: 15%

59% of those polled in OH favor a law like the one in AZ that would allow* police to stop and check the immigration status of those suspected of being in the US illegally vs 32% who don't favor it.
60% of those supporting the law lean towards Portman while 74% against the law go for Fisher.

47% strongly favor repeal of the health care bill while 30% strongly oppose repeal. 75% of those favoring repeal support Portman while 86% of those opposing repeal go for Fisher.

*Slopping wording on my part of the AZ law. Rasmussen didn't do much better.

Larry Sabato is a political science professor at UVA here in Charlottesville. He is very adept at getting himself in front of microphones with his analysis of elections. He is out this week with his thoughts about the November Senate races.
We will have 36 contests in the Fall. 18 of the seats are held by Republicans and 18 are held by Democrats.
> He has 14 seats currently held by a Repub remaining Repub (albeit with a different Senator in some states).
> He lists 4 races where there is now a Repub as being Toss Ups: Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio.*
> He sees no Repub state where there is evidence of a Dem clearly leading.

> Sabato thinks that 9 states with a Dem will definitely stay Dem.
> He lists 5 races where there is now a Dem as being Toss Ups: California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania.
> He sees 4 states where there is now a Dem leaning towards a Repub: Arkansas, Delaware, Nevada and North Dakota.

*His commentary was written before the events in Florida, which should now be classified as a Repub seat moving into the Toss Up category.

He, at this point, sees the Repubs gaining 7 seats.

some ONE?

ha!

you've got something of a silent coterie

FiveThirtyEight.com posted this chart last week in a discussion regarding the Utah primary.

Pennsylvania Senate (May 10th)
Poor Arlen Spector. He just can't get no respect.
The incumbent Senator was a Republican but he realized that matched up against Pat Toomey in a Repub primary, he would lose. So he decided to become a Democrat. He will face Congressman Joe Sestek in a primary on May 18th.
Spector, in Rasmussen polls, has been sinking steadily against Sestek, dropping a few % each month. The most recent poll has him down 47% to 42%. His negatives amongst likely Dem voters is a bit higher than one might expect.
Toomey, the Republican, leads in the polls against either Dem. but that will probably even out after the primary. Mr Obama carried PA 55%-44%.
The Dem hierarchy claim to be supporting Spector. I suspect, though, that they consider him to be a bit of a loose cannon.

Good evening. Thunderstorms in VA tonight but they appear to be to my south.
I have a little bit of catching up to do tonight. Nothing major. A bit of reporting on a couple or three races where Republicans are in no danger of losing.
KANSAS SENATE (5/13):
Sam Brownback (R) is retiring from the Senate and is running for Governor. That is not the usual career path. Typically, a Governor will move up to the Senate rather than moving down.
There are 2 Repubs locked in a battle for the party nomination. Over in the small Dem camp, there are 3 candidates. Both parties will have a primary on August 3rd.
Rasmussen has either Repub beating any Dem by something like 60-25 at this point and it is not likely to get any better for the Dems.
Kansas has not had a Dem Senator for 80 years.
President Obama lost to Sen McCain 41% - 57% and Mr Obama now has an approval rating of 37% vs a disapproval rating of 62%.
65% of likely voters in KS favor repeal of the health care bill. That is much higher than the 56% nationally.

IDAHO SENATE (5/14):
No contest here as incumbent Mike Crapo (R) will easily coast back to the Senate for his 3rd term, despite having a last name that must have been painful to endure in middle school.
He had no opponent in 2004. He does this time but the Rasmussen poll has him beating the cr...I mean leading Tom Sullivan (D) by a 66% - 22% margin.
Obama lost to McCain 36% - 61% and his approval/disapproval rating is now 30%/69%.
69% of Idahoans fave repeal of the health care bill which is much higher than the 56% nationally.

One more and I am caught up, I think.
NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE (5/13):
Judd Gregg (R) is retiring after 3 terms. Larry Sabato lists the contest to succeed him as a toss up. I would put it in the "leaning Repub" column.
NH is a small state up there in the NE U.S. and it is full of some quirky people who talk with a strange accent. Did you know that it has one of the largest elected deliberative bodies around?
The Dem candidate is Congressman Paul Hodes. He will face one of 4 Repubs. The Repub primary is Sept 14. Rasmussen has Hodes losing to 2 of those by 12 points but leading the other 2 by 2 points.
Some side bars from the poll:
> 50% still approve of Obama while 50% disapprove.
> 53% of likely voters favor repeal of the health care bill.
> Of those who have heard the accusation that the Repubs are "the party of No," 30% say that is good for the Repub party while 42% say it is not.
> 48% say they favor a law like AZ has that allows police to check the immigration status of those people suspected of being in the country illegally.
40% oppose.
> But 57% say they are at least somewhat concerned that a law like that in AZ may violate the civil rights of citizens.
> 59% tell Rasmussen that they support a "welcoming immigration policy" as long as terrorists, criminals and those seeking to live off the welfare system are excluded.

NH could be an interesting race once we find out who the Repub is.

CALIFORNIA SENATE (5/14):
Rasmussen's poll was the last one prior to the Republican's June 8th primary. The incumbent, Barbara Boxer (D), is seeking her 4th 6-year term. She still leads all 3 of the Repubs but not by much and is viewed as potentially vulnerable.
She leads Tom Campbell (R), a former member of Congress by just 42-41%.
She does better against the conservative Chuck Devore (R), a state assemblyman, by 46%-40% and does best against former Hewlett Packard exec Carly Fiorina (R) by 45-38%. Fiorina has been fading a bit in recent months.
You can see that in any of the matchups, about 15% are unsure or prefer someone else.
34% view Boxer Very Unfavorably. That is high, suggesting that those people are unlikely to change their minds about her.
47% of likely voters oppose repeal of the health care bill while 43% favor repeal. That is way out of line with the view nationally, where some 56% favor repeal. That bodes well for Boxer.
Here is something that Rasmussen has started reporting on recently:
"Most polled voters are aware that the Republicans have been tagged as the Party of No by Dems for their unified opposition to the Obama agenda."
In CA, 48% say that that is a bad thing for the Repubs while 24% say it is a good thing. I am going to be including the Party of No thing in future reporting.
Obama carried CA 61-37% and his support now is 61-36%.

I swear I am not making this up.
The Repub candidate for state Treasurer in Alabama is (drum roll please)...Young Boozer. That is his name. Young (sort of pronounced Yong) Boozer. He is a fiscal conservative. His campaign slogan is something like "Funny name, sound policy."
He is about 60 and has had what appears to be a long and successful career in the private sector. The Boozer family has been involved in AL for quite a while.


RJB/2198

YJCMTSU...

Boozer, by the way, will be facing George Wallace, Jr. in the Repub primary on June 1st. The latter is the son of the Gov and segregationist George, Sr.
Each has raised about the same amount in contributions, but Boozer has been spending his own money like a drunken sailor on shore leave.

FLORIDA SENATE (5/17)
4/22 5/4 5/16
Charlie Crist (I) - Governor 30% 38% 31%
Marco Rubio (R) - House Speaker 37% 34% 39%
Kendrick Meek (D) - Congressman 22% 17% 18%

The bounce that Crist got when he announced that he was quitting the Republican party to run for the Senate as an independent is now gone. He is now back to where he was prior to his end of April withdrawal from the GOP. He would have lost his primary race with Rubio by a large margin.
He has been actively courting Democrats but presently is about tied with voters who say they are Dems. He is barely ahead of Rubio amongst those who describe themselves as "not affiliated" with a party.
The Rasmussen story on this 5/16 survey was much shorter than is usually the case.

Dude, what is it with Alabama?



Best AD EVER

Cycloptichorn

I liked the part with the gun at the end, Cyclo, from the candidate for Commissioner of Agriculture. Perfectly logical. I would never turn my back on zucchini unless I was armed.
Some great primary races tomorrow!

NY SENATE (5/18) - SPECIAL ELECTION
This race is for the seat Hillary Clinton gave up when she joined the Obama administration as Secretary of State. The Governor (D) appointed state senator Kirsten Gillibran to complete the term. She is now running for a full term.
Gillibran leads any of a trio of relatively unknown Republicans by about 20% with about 20% saying that they are unsure or favor (perhaps among Repubs) another candidate. The Repub primary will be September 17th.
Obama carried NY with a 62% share of the vote and his approval rating is still 61%.
45% of likely voters favor repeal of the health care bill while 52% oppose repeal. That is approximately opposite of the national sentiment. Gillibran supported the bill.
Of those likely voters who say that they are aware that the Repubs have been portrayed as the Party of No, 25% believe that this will work to the Repubs favor while 48% say it will turn out badly for them.
I think the race will narrow once the Repubs get a candidate, but it appears to me that the Dems should hold on to this seat.