Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

I have reported on early polls in 18 of the 33 or so states having Senate races come November.
As you know, the Democrats have a 59-41 majority right now. I reviewed my notebook today. I was surprised to find that 6 seats could flip from Democrat to Republican. One each in California, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, North Dakota and Washington. It is still too early to say. In some, the parties haven't settled on a candidate yet. In others, the polls reflect a lack of attention from voters at this point. But the Dems could have a fight on their hands to retain a majority.

New Rasmussen poll on Indiana Senate

Are there any polls from serious organizations on this race?

Thanks, Irishk. Incumbent Evan Bayh's (D) sudden announcement that he was not seeking a new term turned the race in IN upside down. It could be another take away for the Repubs. Too late in the evening for me to look at tonight.

Ebrown. This issue about Rasmussen has come up repeatedly. I have tried to explain why I, a liberal, have chosen that pony to ride. I cordially invite you to choose another poll that you feel is more credible regarding the Senate races. Tell us what they show in each of the 18 or 19 races I have reported on thus far.
Are you willing to commit the time to do that?

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson might give Feingold a run for his money in the Wisconsin Senate race. He seems to be doing that needed for such including resigning from the Board of Directors of CNS Response, Inc., a health care data company. This probably won't be firmed up until after Easter if at all.

Thompson looks even with Feingold (Seriously doesn't he look a lot like Soupy Sales? Just sayin). PPP has it at 47 to 44 (9 % undecided). A GOP pole gives Thompson a 5% lead, and Ramussen finds it a dead heat. Some doubt the former Wisconsin state executive Thompson sliding into a Senate spot but then Wisconsin has some problems that Obama bills and ideology might make for worse Wisconsin's woes. We shall see.

JM
P.S. Soupy Sales was (like Rocky and Bullwinkle) way ahead of his time in his art--You had to love him/them.

He sure took his sweet time LOL. Is he going to have a primary fight? Women seem to like Feingold better; men and Independents favor a Republican.

Here is somthing interesting. I heard this coming from Issa awhile ago but didn't think much of it until I saw him pushing this again today. I wonder how far this can possibly go?


http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/issa-threatens-to-call-for-a-special-prosecutor-in-sestak-job-offer-89050472.html

Sen. Tom Coburn, just before the Obamacare vote , promised to look closely at those Dems from Congress being given federal appointments by the WH in the future. Is the WH promising jobs for this Obamacare thing?


JM

Looks like Bennett will have to mix it up with other Dudes in the Utah GOP convention. Things are looking up for (the real) conservative Mike Lee. Perhaps even more important is the increased turnout in the caucuses. More Here:
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=N2E1MDk1MDQ1MzFmYmJkNTAyZTI1MDEwYTAzYWFjYTE=

and here:
http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/96303/

and here:
http://thegoateskids.blogspot.com/2010/03/acaucusing-we-went.html

JM

Ohio Senate Race (4/2) {2/8}
Rasmussen polling data shows little change from two months ago in the race to succeed retiring Republican George Voinovich.

Rob Portman (R) - Former House member (43%) {44%}
Lee Fisher (D) - Lt Governor (38%) {39%}

Rob Portman (R) - (45%) {43%}
Jennifer Brunner (D) - Sec of State (38%) {37%}

The inability of Portman to pull ahead or either Fisher or Brunner to gain traction suggests voters are not yet following the campaign very closely. About 20% are undecided or favor another candidate. The Democratic primary is to be held on May 4th.

Opposition to the recently passed health care legislation is at 52% to 41% which is in line with the polling for the nation overall. Not surprisingly, those opposed favor Portman by a large margin.

Here is a rather convoluted stat from Rasmussen from Ohio, but the same question is now showing up in all of his polling. 48% of all voters in Ohio say that their own views are closer to the "average" Tea Party member's than they are to the views of the "average" member of Congress.

Finally, 54% are concerned (and 34% are very concerned) that the rhetoric surrounding opposition to President Obama's policies could lead to heightened violence.

Given the extremely low esteem polls have shown for Congress, that's not surprising. Tea Party members are from all walks of life, apparently...even some Democrats are joining the movement.

75% of tea party members say that they historically vote Republican or tend to, the others not, obviously.

Yes, I would have liked Rasmussen to break out those with a favorable view of the Tea Party movement by current party affiliation, with emphasis on the 20% or so who say they are independent.
Also, as an aside re the last sentence in my report on Ohio and the concern about possible violence because of "opposition to Mr Obama's policies." I would say that that was almost a verbatim cribbing from Rasmussen. I personally would not have implied that any threat of violence could be pinned on the far right, as evidenced by the bricks tossed through Republican HQs down the street from me.
Thanks for following this. There should be a slew of new polls between now and mid-April.

Nevada Senate Race (4/5):
I thought I had written about this one a month or so ago. Evidently not.
Incumbent Democrat Harry Reid will likely lose his seat come November. The Senate majority leader helped guide the health care legislation through. It will cost him his job, I think.

Ex-GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden: 54%
Harry Reid: 39%

Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R): 51%
Harry Reid: 40%

Businessman Danny Tarkanian (R): 49%
Harry Reid: 42%

Note that Other/Undecided is very low this early in the campaign. Single digits. Combine that with the stunningly high 53% who have an unfavorable view of Reid. He is in a world of hurt as we say in the south.

62% of likely voters in Nevada favor repeal of the health care law which is higher than the national rate. 49% say that they see the Teaparty movement's views more reflective of their own views than current members of Congress.

and all politicians on both sides of the isle that supported PrezBO's health deform plan may as well freshen
up their resume's because they will be voted out of office on Election Day, Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010.

Not counting on it. Most effects don't take effect till 2014. Maybe none will be affected till after the full impact is felt. Also, I do not believe the timing was accidental.

Maybe, but if the left presses on with V.A.T., immigration and other initiatives the voters who have not already reach their tipping point will.

I don't believe too many Republicans voted in favor of the health care bill. I have been laboring through the Senate races since early February, cribbing shamelessly from Rasmussen polls. You seem to have time on your hands. Please study the November election and conjecture as to the makeup of the Senate after November 2nd. Currently 59 Dems and 41 Repubs. Where do you project gains and losses for each party?
I have my tally sheet, but I am curious as to how closely we agree.
Welcome to this thread, by the way, but I expect that the very few others who are here would appreciate it not becoming a site for mindless vitriolic attacks. But we can't control that and we know it. So it goes.

I agree. His approval has been at 37% for a really long time. Stranger things have happened, though.

Colorado Senate (4/8)
There is a crowded field seeking this seat held by Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet. The former Supt of Denver schools was appointed in Jan 2009 to fill the seat of Ken Salazar when the latter was made Secy of Interior.
He is opposed in the primary by Andrew Romanoff (D), former state House Speaker.
On the Republican side, Lt Gov Jane Norton is competing with former state Senator Tom Wiens and a county district attorney named Ken Buck.
The primary for both parties is a long way away: August 10th.
Rasmussen has polled each of the possible match ups and has a Republican leading a Democrat by mid to high single digits. Norton (R) and Bennet (D) seem to fair better then the others.
Rasmussen asks people whether they approve or disapprove of a candidate. He feels that the % who disapprove is significant at this stage of any campaign since it suggests that there might be a group of people who are unlikely to change their minds about a candidate.
Bennet (D) is at a high 29%, reflecting the anti-incumbency attitude.
Romanoff (D) is at 20%.
Norton (R) comes in at 17%.
Wiens (R) is at 9%.
Buck (R), who is not well known, shows up at 7%.
President Obama carried Colorado by 55% to 45%. The health care reform law is hurting the Dems, with opposition to it and a desire to repeal it coming in at about 56% to 38%.

My fellow Charlottesville political junkie, the ubiquitous UVA poly science professor, Larry("Is that a tv camera/microphone over there?")Sabato, is out with his analysis of the Senate races today (4/8).
I summarize:
> There are 36 Senate races this fall, with 18 seats currently held by Dems and 18 held by Repubs up for grabs.
> Here is how he projects the races for the 18 seats currently held by Dems breaking-
> 7 are totally safe for the Dems;
> 2 are likely (D);
> 0 are leaning (D);
> 5 are tossups;
> 3 are leaning towards the Repubs;
> 0 are likely (R);
> 1 is a sure bet for (R).
> On the Repub side, he sees-
> 10 are safe for the Repubs;
> 4 are likely (R);
> 0 are leaning (R);
> 4 are tossups
> 0 are leaning towards the Dems;
> 0 are likely (D);
> 0 are a sure bet for (D).

I disagree with where Sabato puts some of these but he gets paid a lot more than I do so what can I say?
The current make up of the Senate is 59 Dems and 41 Repubs. I assigned some sort of value to each of his categories (100% for safe, 50% for tossups etc).
By my calculation, using his numbers from today, I come up with Dems ending up with control of the Senate by a margin of 55-45.