Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

@Cycloptichorn,

I voted FOR Obama for the exact same reason I'm voting for Kirk.

After 8 years of Republican rule, it was time for a change.

People have a very narrow version of politics; if you support someone on the right for one election you're conservative through and through. Or if you have a problem with a specific bill the democrats are pushing for (but not reform in general) you get labeled.

I'm a social liberal, fiscal conservative (in general). Please continue to tell me where I stand in your narrow view.

And I applauded the Tea Party movement for not rooting against gay marriage, abortion, and other typically Republican party platforms (all of which I disagree with the Republicans on, STRONGLY). I'm sure even YOU can give them credit for that.

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Damn! There are actually people following this thread?

FLASH! This just in from Rasmussen (I don't make this stuff up. Honest):
64% of Americans polled last week say that the arrival of Spring will put them in a better mood. 23% say no while 13% are undecided

Rasmussen polls target "likely" voters vs those "registered" or "eligible." It seems to me that (7 months away from November and well before the final candidates are actually selected in some states) the poll data could be suspect. As we move on and the advertising kicks in things could change dramatically.

The anti-incumbent thing is interesting. In Louisiana, for example, which I wrote about yesterday, a stunning 68% of the folks polled said, in effect, vote the whole bunch of rascals out of Congress vs 10% who said no. But when asked whether they shared that opinion about their own incumbent rascal, only 42% said yes vs 30% saying no.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

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@Cycloptichorn,

This was as of 11/10/2009
quote="Cycloptichorn"]

Senate Seats up for Election:
Dark blue - Two Democratic incumbents
Medium blue - Democratic incumbent
Light Blue - Retiring Democrat
Dark red - Republican incumbent
Light red - Retiring Republican
Grey - No election

Quote:

# 2 Overview of races

* 2.1 Retiring Democratic Senators
o 2.1.1 Roland Burris of Illinois
o 2.1.2 Ted Kaufman of Delaware
* 2.2 Retiring Republican Senators
o 2.2.1 Kit Bond of Missouri
o 2.2.2 Sam Brownback of Kansas
o 2.2.3 Jim Bunning of Kentucky
o 2.2.4 Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
o 2.2.5 George LeMieux of Florida
o 2.2.6 George Voinovich of Ohio
* 2.3 Democratic incumbents
o 2.3.1 Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
o 2.3.2 Barbara Boxer of California
o 2.3.3 Michael Bennet of Colorado
o 2.3.4 Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
o 2.3.5 Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
o 2.3.6 Evan Bayh of Indiana
o 2.3.7 Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
o 2.3.8 Harry Reid of Nevada
o 2.3.9 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
o 2.3.10 Chuck Schumer of New York
o 2.3.11 Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
o 2.3.12 Ron Wyden of Oregon
o 2.3.13 Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
o 2.3.14 Patrick Leahy of Vermont
o 2.3.15 Patty Murray of Washington
o 2.3.16 Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
* 2.4 Republican incumbents
o 2.4.1 Richard Shelby of Alabama
o 2.4.2 Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
o 2.4.3 John McCain of Arizona
o 2.4.4 Johnny Isakson of Georgia
o 2.4.5 Mike Crapo of Idaho
o 2.4.6 Chuck Grassley of Iowa
o 2.4.7 David Vitter of Louisiana
o 2.4.8 Richard Burr of North Carolina
o 2.4.9 Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
o 2.4.10 Jim DeMint of South Carolina
o 2.4.11 John Thune of South Dakota
o 2.4.12 Bob Bennett of Utah

Cycloptichorn

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Colorado (3/5):
The Republicans have a good shot at gaining a Senate seat here.
Michael Bennett (D) is the incumbent, appointed to the job in January, 2009, to take the seat of Ken Salazar who joined the Obama administration as Secretary of the Interior. Bennett was previously the superintendent of the Denver public school system. He is now seeking a full 6-year term.
Former House Speaker in the state, Andrew Romanoff (D), is reportedly miffed that he didn't get appointed to the Senate seat and is challenging Bennett.
There are 3 Republicans running: Jane Norton (Lt Gov), Tom Wiens (former State Senator) and Ken Buck (a county district attorney).
The final candidate for each party will be determined in August 10th primaries.
The Republicans all lead over the incumbent Bennett but against Romanoff it is within a point or two.
Rasmussen says that 60% of Colorado voters share the anti-incumbency attitude that is out there. As I see it Bennett, since he has only been in the Senate for a year, does not get any benefit from the "But at least he is our rascal" sentiment.

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California {2/15} & (3/16)
Here is an update of the Rasmussen poll from {2/15} with one from (3/16):

Barbara Boxer (D) - seeking a 4th 6-year term: {45%} (43%)
Tom Campbell (R) - former Congressman: {41%} (41%)

Barbara Boxer (D): {47%} (46%)
Chuck Devore (R) - state assemblyman: {42%} (40%)

Barbara Boxer (D): {46%} (46%)
Carly Fiorina (R) - former CEO, Hewlett Packard {42%} (40%)

Undecided/Favoring another candidate is in the mid-teens.

Rasmussen claims that any incumbent who can't muster 50% or more is potentially vulnerable. That is Boxer's situation despite what should be a positive landscape.
Mr Obama carried CA 61% to 39%. 58% still view him favorably. The health care bill is supported 55% to 44%. In CA 59% support the concept of voting incumbents in general (the "rascals") out of office but that number drops to 35% when asked if they still say yes when asked about generic incumbents in their own state ("our rascals").
Rasmussen, in addition to asking people for a preference in match ups, also asks whether those polled have a "very favorable" or a "very unfavorable" view of the candidates. Boxer has a very unfavorable rating of 32%. That is notably high.
The Republican primary is June 8th.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Boxer's going to smash whatever opponent ends up against her - Rasmussen is just flooding the zone with their typical republican-leaning polls, as usual. I wouldn't bet against her at this point.

Of course, failure to pass the HC bill could throw a big wrench into things...

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

We have had, as a group, repeated debates about Rasmussen as the pollster of choice here. I have explained my rationale for choosing him. I would prefer not to revisit that. But that is not my decision to make.
Do you see other polls showing Boxer smashing her opponents?

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Arizona Republican Primary (3/18)

The Senate race in heavily Republican Arizona will likely be decided on August 24th with the primary. There is no declared Democrat candidate at this point for the November general election.
The new Rasmussen poll:
John McCain (R) - incumbent since getting to the Senate in 1987: 48%
J D Hayworth (R) - former member of Congress turned talk show host: 41%

A January poll had Sen McCain leading 53% to 31% after Sarah Palin endorsed him. Several other prominent conservatives have endorsed him despite Hayworth's claim that McCain is out of touch with the majority of Arizona citizens.

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@realjohnboy,

so his opponent gained 15% after Ms Palin endorsed him.

interesting...

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@Rockhead,

RH, there was another candidate, Chris Simcox, who withdrew in favor of Mr Hayworth. Simcox, running largely on an anti-immigration platform, was polling about 4% in January.
I should have mentioned that as being part - but just a part - of Hayworth's gaining ground.

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Wisconsin (3/18):
There was a Rasmussen update from a poll a month earlier. Incumbent Russ Feingold (D) continues to lead the two declared Republican candidates for his Senate seat by 9 and 16 points.
But he trails when matched up with former governor and HHS secretary Tommy Thompson 45%-47% vs 43%-48% in February. Thompson continues to remain coy about whether or not he is in the race. The Republican primary is September 14th.
Rasmussen claims that any incumbent who polls less than 50% at this stage is potentially vulnerable.

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Today is the turning point for Fall's elections. Passage of the Health-care bill in the House will allow the Dems to pivot around on the Republicans, who have bet the farm on blocking everything the Democrats have proposed this whole year. And their plan of running against health care isn't going to work out as well as they are hoping, either.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

North Dakota (2/12):
We probably won't see a lot of polling here. It looks like the Republicans will easily pick up a Senate seat in ND.
Veteran Democrat incumbent Byron Dorgan announced in January that he would not seek reelection. At the time he trailed his presumed opponent, Governor (since 2000) John Hoeven 36%-58%.
Things have gone down hill since then for the Dems-

John Hoeven: 71%
Tracy Potter - state Senator: 17%

John Hoeven: 65%
Heidi Heitkamp - state Attorney General: 29%

As of 2/12, Heitkamp had not officially gotten into the race.
Hoeven has strong name recognition and enjoys a high approval rating in a state that voted for John McCain 53%-45% in the Presidential race. As of 2/12, President Obama had a much lower approval rate in ND then he had nationally.
Score one for the Republicans. Was that on your list, Georgeob?

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@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

Dems to pivot around

I am getting real sick of the term "pivot". What it means is that our politicians dont stand for anything. If this be true then they need to be replaced. I would like the term Pivot replaced with some word or phrase that better captures the wickedness of what is being described. The old stand by "flip-flop" still works in my opinion.

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@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
Dems to pivot around
I am getting real sick of the term "pivot". What it means is that our politicians dont stand for anything. If this be true then they need to be replaced. I would like the term Pivot replaced with some word or phrase that better captures the wickedness of what is being described. The old stand by "flip-flop" still works in my opinion.

I meant pivot in the electoral sense, in that they would go from being on the defensive to on the attack, not pivot in the sense that they are changing their positions on issues. 'Flip-flop-' isn't appropriate at all.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I would certainly agree that what happens today, in addition to the momentous changes it might bring regarding health care, will be a "turning point" or "pivotal" politically/electorally. If it fails, the Obama Presidency is doomed, in my opinion.
Some members of Congress will likely lose their jobs because of how they vote today. Most of them will be Dems already vulnerable because of the bad economy or the anti-incumbent sentiment. But it seems to me that the Dems can point to the Repubs as being nothing but obstructionists incapable of coherently advocating for anything. It might work, but I think the Repubs will still pick up a few seats in the Senate and a goodly number in the House.

I have been trudging through the Senate races, reporting on 15 of them so far. I try to write without expressing bias, but fully realizing that many of yall know me as the liberal that I am. More races to report on next week.

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Utah:
Rasmussen has yet to do any polling here, where Bob Bennett (R) is seeking re-election to a 3rd (?) term.
He appears to be in deep doo-doo within his party. He has been listed as one of the 10 most liberal Republican Senators and that is not sitting well in a Republican state moving towards being more conservative.
-He voted for an early, early version of a health care bill.
-He supported full body scans at airports.
-He accepted $100K in contributions from defense companies after inserting earmarks favoring them in budget bills.
-He shook hands (gasp) with President Obama when the latter moved his way towards the podium at the State of the Union speech.

While Newt Gingrinch endorsed him a month or so ago, former minority leader Dick Armey has thrown his support to the more conservative Mike Lee.
Disappointing for Mr Bennett is the result of recent straw poll of Republican stalwarts where he failed to get enough support to stave of a primary election. He seems to now have 3 or 4 challengers from his own party.

A Democrat and, I believe, have declared but are deemed to have little chance of winning.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

A Democrat and, I believe, an independent have declared.

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Two polls out today show long time incumbents likely to have little trouble retaining their seats in the Senate.

Iowa (3/22)
Charles Grassley (R) polls about 55% as he seeks his 6th Senate term. Three Dems are vying for the opportunity to be the sacrificial lamb. None are well known and are, at best, around 35%.
Mr Obama carried Iowa with 54% of the vote.

Vermont (3/22)
Patrick Leahy (D), in the Senate since 1974, is at 58% vs a Republican to be named later. No viable Repub has volunteered.
Mr Obama carried the liberal state with 68%.

Florida (3/22) also has a new poll which shows little change from what I reported a month ago. House Speaker and conservative darling Marco Rubio continues to lead Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination in the Senate race by some 20 points. The winner should have an easy contest against House member Kendrick Meek (D) and keep this seat in Republican hands.

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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