Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

@Lash,

Lash wrote:

What are your thoughts re the Meg v Jerry Brown event coming to a poll place near you? Demoralizing choice, I think...

Really? Jerry Brown is going to kick her ass. Whitman has ran a poor campaign, proving the point that money can't buy you an election.

Say what ya want to about Brown, Whitman is a total ******* jerk and not someone who I want in charge of anything at all.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

MSNBC (Morning Joe) was talking about the "broken polling system" this morning. They all agreed that control of the House will probably revert to the Republicans, but that the way that most polls are weighted to account for cell phone users is bogus and the poll results meaningless.

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@Cycloptichorn,

My guy (native Californian) feels the same way you do. She's nothing to hope for - but Brown already has a horrible track record in CA administration... However, Brown IS poised to kick her ass. Not so much asking about the election, but what will happen after it...

1 Reply

HOUSE PREDICTIONS:|
Current Make-up: Dems 256 Repubs 179 = 77 seat Dem margin

EPro: Dems 194 Repubs 241 = 47 seat Repub margin (62 seat Repub gain)
Cook: Dems 196 Repubs 239 = 43 seat Repub margin (60 seat Repub gain)
Enten*: Dems 200 Repubs 235 = 35 seat Repub margin (56 seat Repub gain)
Sabato: Dems 201 Repubs 234 = 33 seat Repub margin (55 seat Repub gain)

Georgeob: Dems 212 Repubs 223 = 11 seat Repub margin (44 seat Repub gain)
Cyclo**: Dems 218 Repubs 217 = 1 seat Dem margin (38 seat Repub gain)

*Enten is the kid from Dartmouth Irishk introduced us to.
** I assigned numbers to Cyclo based on his long-standing prediction that the Dems would hold on to a majority.

Please feel free to quote/edit this post to add other pollsters or add you own predictions.

2 Replies

@Lash,

Lash wrote:

My guy (native Californian) feels the same way you do. She's nothing to hope for - but Brown already has a horrible track record in CA administration... However, Brown IS poised to kick her ass. Not so much asking about the election, but what will happen after it...

The most important thing on the ballot this election isn't the Governor or Senate race at all - it's the ballot proposition. Which one? Not 19, though that's a biggies. Nah, it's Prop 25 - which would return the ability to pass a budget to a simple majority, instead of a 2/3rds majority, which is ridiculous. Much of California's problems revolve around the complete inability for us to pass a budget, b/c the Republicans refuse to do so each and every time, just to **** the Dems' up.

Brown's previous track record is up and down; he gets blamed for some stuff that wasn't really his fault, but he was unprepared to face some of the problems that did end up being his fault. He isn't the strongest candidate, but he was gifted with a very weak opponent.

Cycloptichorn

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realjohnboy wrote:

EPro: Dems 194 Repubs 241 = 47 seat Repub margin (62 seat Repub gain)
Cook: Dems 196 Repubs 239 = 43 seat Repub margin (60 seat Repub gain)
Enten*: Dems 200 Repubs 235 = 35 seat Repub margin (56 seat Repub gain)
Sabato: Dems 201 Repubs 234 = 33 seat Repub margin (55 seat Repub gain)

I assume this group represents professional predictions. Georgeob is modest in comparison.

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@realjohnboy,

It seems that this election cycle is somewhat different than past ones, because of a) how polls are taken now vs the past elections, b) many young folks will not vote this time around, c) more women and dems are going to vote republicans, and d) most are reacting to the unemployment picture, and ignoring what Obama has accomplished during his first two years in office - and the simple fact that the Great Recession is not Obama's fault. People want miracles; it's unrealistic thinking - and stupid!

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ALASKA SENATE:
The Republican incumbent, Lisa Murkowski, lost in the primary against Joe Miller, a Tea Party movement candidate supported by Sarah Palin. Palin and Murkowski "don't play well together." They, perhaps, hate each other's guts, to put it gently.
Murkowski decided to run as an independent write-in candidate. The Dem is not a factor in the red state of Alaska.
Polls show Murkowski and Miller close but it is not easy for a write-in candidate to win. By definition, the name must be written in.
A court decision within the last day requires election officials to provide voters with a list of people claiming to be write-in candidates if asked to do so. The state Supreme Court may rule on that tonight.
Meanwhile, the Miller campaign has gotten some 47 people to declare as write-in candidates today. They would appear on the list if the Court requires election officials to offer that.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Quote:

Murkowski decided to run as an independent write-in candidate. The Dem is not a factor in the red state of Alaska.

Not sure if I agree with that, especially as Miller and Murkowski seem to be splitting the Republican vote -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elections/state/AK/senate/?chart=10AKSenGEMvM

I could see a situation in which the Dem wins, coming from that chart. Especially as Murkowski is a write-in candidate and her name has to be spelled exactly correctly for the vote to count....

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Well I think that "intellectual integrity" would require that you take in all the available data and base your forecast on that. Sticking with an earlier prediction in defiance of new information is a mark of stubbornness, more than anything else. There is no shame involved in finding that a prediction of the future doesn't turn out to be true - none of us can forsee the future with certainty. Moreover, in the case at hand, the political balance in the current eolectorate has been fairly dynamic over the past several months: very few of the predictions made months ago by folks on either side of the political aisle look very good right now.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Well I think that "intellectual integrity" would require that you take in all the available data and base your forecast on that. Sticking with an earlier prediction in defiance of new information is a mark of stubbornness, more than anything else. There is no shame involved in finding that a prediction of the future doesn't turn out to be true - none of us can forsee the future with certainty. Moreover, in the case at hand, the political balance in the current eolectorate has been fairly dynamic over the past several months: very few of the predictions made months ago by folks on either side of the political aisle look very good right now.

Part of the problem with that is that I have long attacked the idea of the 'likely voter' model that is used in so many polls, and which has favored the Republican party to an extreme degree this year. I believe it is exaggerating the numbers of Conservatives who will vote and the numbers of Liberals who will stay home, because people often register displeasure by answering certain questions a certain way in polls, but do different things on election day.

I won't be able to confirm that my theory is right or wrong until we see the results of the election, and I'm not quite prepared to abandon my theory just yet. I'd rather take my lumps for being wrong, later on, then to vacillate at the end based on nothing more then my personal worries.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Quote:

Part of the problem with that is that I have long attacked the idea of the 'likely voter' model that is used in so many polls, and which has favored the Republican party to an extreme degree this year.

For good reason,,...traditional Dem voter have been down in the dumps, this is well known to impact voter turnout. It is pretty easy to polls traditional dem voters to find out how they feel, and ask them if they plan to vote this go-round. You are assuming that the pollsters in incompetent, and i dont know what you base this assumption on.

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Good evening. I started this thread a year ago. My intent was to have a place where fellow political junkies could, through the sheer dullness of statistics, stay under the radar. We would try to report in an unbiased tone.
Polls, Registered voters, Likely voters, Margin of error.
We drifted a bit, which upset me. But we got back on focus.
Three days to go. We, I guess, are setting aside the polls and are now ready to make our own predictions about the make-up of the Senate and House.
Thanks to all who have viewed this and to those who have taken the time to post.
And especially to Irishk, who understood what I was intending to do and ended up contributing more than I did.
-Johnboy

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

I started reading this thread from the beginning (in honor of all your hard work over the past long months, many, many thanks) -- very interesting to see how things have evolved ... how some have stayed the same. I'll use this weekend to finish up and then next week we can use your summary of today to see who came closest to the actual results. Of course, I'm especially interested in seeing how our lad from Dartmouth does (I think he may have a future in the polling business!) and my pal Charlie...I've clicked on his website so often I feel like I should be related lol.

Speaking of Mr. Cook, he's said the whole thing will be over by 9 pm Eastern on Tuesday night, since this isn't an election that's back loaded towards the Western time zones.

I'm guessing you'll want to take a breather from all things poll-related for a month or so and then on to 2012??? (Ducking Laughing

).

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I am becoming convinced that the electorate is a howling mob acting on emotion rather than intellect.

In Northern South Carolina, it appears that John Spratt, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, is going to be knocked off by Mick Mulvaney, a fairly new state senator. Spratt is probably the smartest person in congress, and one who has truly worked with those across the aisle. A few years ago, staffers on the Hill voted him as the person in congress most capable of being president. He was in the vanguard of Clinton's PayGo, which produced budget surpluses. Mulvaney is barely a South Carolinian, having lived in SC for only about four years, and having a business in NC, where he sends his children to a private school. He argues that social security and Medicaid are unconstitutional. Also, he has a record of slimy land deals.

Most of you know of the record of Sharron Angle, who is likely to knock off Harry Reid. Etc.

No wonder the country is going down hill at a rapid pace.

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@Advocate,

Quote:

I am becoming convinced that the electorate is a howling mob acting on emotion rather than intellect.

we are irrational beings as well as rational....this is as good of time as any for you to wise up..

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HEY!!! Guess what?!?!?! President Obama just called little 'ol me and told me to remember to vote on Tuesday. Really and truly! I tried to get him to stay on the line and chat about this and that, but he wouldn't let me get a word in edgewise -- just kept rattling on about voting on Tuesday. Kinda rude, actually. I had all kinds of ideas I wanted to share. Hey, ho... back to not answering my phone until after election day.

1 Reply

@JPB,

The reason he couldn't linger and chat is because he wanted to call me next!!!

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

HOUSE PREDICTIONS:|
Current Make-up: Dems 256 Repubs 179 = 77 seat Dem margin

EPro: Dems 194 Repubs 241 = 47 seat Repub margin (62 seat Repub gain)
Cook: Dems 196 Repubs 239 = 43 seat Repub margin (60 seat Repub gain)
Enten*: Dems 200 Repubs 235 = 35 seat Repub margin (56 seat Repub gain)
Sabato: Dems 201 Repubs 234 = 33 seat Repub margin (55 seat Repub gain)
Rudin: Dems 215 Repubs 220 = 5 seat Repub margin (41 seat Repub gain)

Georgeob: Dems 212 Repubs 223 = 11 seat Repub margin (44 seat Repub gain)
Cyclo**: Dems 218 Repubs 217 = 1 seat Dem margin (38 seat Repub gain)
JohnBoy: Dems 206 Repubs 229 = 23 seat Repub margin (50 seat Repub gain)

*Enten is the kid from Dartmouth Irishk introduced us to.
** I assigned numbers to Cyclo based on his long-standing prediction that the Dems would hold on to a majority.

Please feel free to quote/edit this post to add other pollsters or add you own predictions.

Ken Rudin is "The Political Junkie" on NPR. He gave his predictions this morning. I also added mine.

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@realjohnboy,

Thanks for the tabular summary, RJB. It puts the picture in perspective and highlights the, probably irreducable, uncertainty we all fgace.

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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