Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Odds of GOP winning 60+ seats now over 50% on Intrade.

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Maryland Senate:

Poll: Coons 57, O'Donnell 36

Bewitched.

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@Irishk,

I thought it'll be about 75 vs 20 by now. LOL

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@cicerone imposter,

Repubs are blaming it on Karl Rove lol.

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@Irishk,

That's a nice twist I would never have thought of.

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@cicerone imposter,

Oops...poll post above should read DELAWARE Senate...not Maryland!

I'm getting a clear case of poll-itis LOL.

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@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

I'm getting a clear case of poll-itis LOL.

4 days to go!

Larry Sabato is out today with his final predictions.
HOUSE (currently controlled by Dems 256-179): he has the Repubs picking up 55 seats (with a floor of 47). Either way, or somewhere in between, would turn the House over to Repubs with comfortably more than the 218 seats needed.
SENATE (currently controlled by Dems 59-41 including the 2 Indys): He has the Repubs gaining 8 which would leave the Dems in charge* 51-49.
Here is how he predicts the race often described as the most competitive:
California (Dem), Colorado (Rep), Illinois (Rep), Nevada (Rep), Washington (Dem), West Virginia (Dem), Pennsylvania (Rep), Kentucky (Rep).
He considers Washington to be the best opportunity for the Repubs to pick up an extra seat which would make the split 50-50.
GOVERNORS: He thinks the Repubs will pick up 8 or 9.

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One of my favorite handicappers says ...

I'll be sacking groceries if Democrats retain House!

Charlie Cook wrote:

“To be honest, I think the odds are higher that it’s over 60 than under 40,” he said of how many seats Democrats will lose.

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from what I'm reading here, Tom Tancredo has a good chance of winning Colorado Governorship. Bizarre. Tom is a single issue (immigration) candidate. The Dem candidate Hickenlooper (sp?) is very popular centrist.

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@dyslexia,

COLORADO GOVERNOR
You need to buy a program/scorecard to follow this.
Bill Ritter (D) is the current Gov. He sensed, perhaps incorrectly, that he might lose this time around. His presumed opponent would be Scott McInnis (R). So he declined to run.
McInnis needed to win the Repub primary to get the nomination. All was going well until it came out that an article with his name on it while he was working at some foundation for $300K was plagiarized. His defense was that a staffer did the deed; he (McInnis) just put his name on it.
Dan Maes, a Republican newcomer, won the primary but has run what could charitably be described as a lackluster campaign.
The Dem candidate is Denver mayor John Hickenlooper. He would, it was assumed, win easily.
But then along cameTom Tancredo, a former member of the U.S. House as a Repub, but now running as an independent under the flag of the American Constitution Party. He is, as Dys points out, a "one-trick-pony." His campaign is based on the controlling of illegal immigration.
Polls on this race are kind of all over the place but seem to be pointing towards a win by Hickenlooper by half a dozen points over Tancredo. Maes, meanwhile, is around 10%. That is significant in terms of receiving official recognition as being a viable party in the next contest.

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Some interesting findings by pollster Douglas Schoen, who partners with longtime Democratic strategist Mark Penn at Penn Schoen & Berland, as reported in US News & World Report.

The poll's focus appears to be mainly on Tea Party influence on the election, but there is current data on this election as well.

Some highlights:

Quote:

According to pollster Doug Schoen, whose new poll shows vast support for the Tea Party movement among voters, the president is still liked by about half the nation. In fact, more like him personally than like his policies. Some 48 percent think he’s a nice guy, while just 42 percent approve of his job performance.

But that personal favorability doesn’t translate into re-election support when voters are asked if Obama deserves a second term. Says Schoen: “Despite voters feelings toward Obama personally, 56 percent say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 38 percent say he does deserve to be re-elected president.” Worse, Schoen adds, “43 percent say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48 percent say Bush was a better president than Obama has been.”

Quote:

-- 54 percent say the Tea Party has been a good thing for American politics.

-- Voters favor Republicans over Democrats on a generic ballot 48 percent to 39 percent.

-- The Democratic attack on special interest money helping Republicans isn't having much of an impact.

There's also analysis on the Tea Party and its effect as a third party in 2012.

Quote:

Schoen found that a slight majority, 51 percent, favor a third party in American politics and if that were the Tea Party, then Obama would win in a three-way race in 2012. According to Schoen, if the race pitted Obama, Republican Mitt Romney and Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin in 2012, Obama would top the others with 40 percent; Romney gets 32 percent and Palin 17 percent.

Full results can be found Here. Mr. Schoen was named Pollster of the Year in 1996 by the American Association of Political Consultants and has been widely credited with turning around President Clinton's political fortunes between 1994 and 1996.

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Poll graphic from yesterday's New York Times...

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@Irishk,

Quote:

The poll was done in support with Schoen’s most recent book, Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System, written with Scott Rasmussen.

I dunno, a pollster who just wrote a book about how important the Tea Party is, along with the most Conservative pollster out there, finds a poll that confirms that which will make him money?

Shocking!

I would want to know how they determined their 'likely voter' screens. I've seen over and over this cycle that polls have shown the Dem ahead or only slightly behind amongst REGISTERED voters, but behind by a lot with LIKELY voters. I'm still skeptical that these models are accurately depicting who is likely to vote.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

There's nothing in the 69 page report that I can find that details his methodology or a breakdown of party affiliation for the 1,000 likely voters. I'll see if I can find some discussion of it, although that may be why he refers to it as a 'presentation' rather than a poll?

In the meantime, ElectionProjection (a conservative analyst) has upped his prediction to a 62 seat pickup for Repubs in the lower chamber.

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@Cycloptichorn,

I emailed Mr. Schoen. He's probably pretty busy right about now lol. Doubt I'll hear back before Tuesday.

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@Irishk,

Thanks. The presentation is BASED on a poll which used a 'likely voter' model, so they should have some data on how that was done. Often in the breakouts of the poll, they will list the specific questions they asked to determine that, along with the partisan breakdown; this 'presentation' didn't seem to have either one of those.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Well the elections are close at hand - indeed many mail in votes have already been cast. What's your prediction for the outcome, Cyclo?

Mine is that the Republicans will take the House with a 10+ majority and will end up about 2 short of a majority in the Senate.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Mine is that the Republicans will take the House with a 10+ majority and will end up about 2 short of a majority in the Senate.

I'm surprised you think the Repubs could wind up with only a 10 seat majority in the House.

Please feel free to quote and edit the scorecard of projections that I'm putting up in the next post.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Well the elections are close at hand - indeed many mail in votes have already been cast. What's your prediction for the outcome, Cyclo?

Mine is that the Republicans will take the House with a 10+ majority and will end up about 2 short of a majority in the Senate.

In order to maintain my intellectual integrity, I feel that I am beholden to stick with my prediction that the Dems will in fact hold the house, made several months back. Though the situation doesn't look good, I don't think it would reflect well on me to go back on my bold words back then. I'm willing to accept the personal embarrassment associated with making an inaccurate prediction; I actually have a bet with Finn about that very thing.

After having watched a lot of elections now, I am a big believer in the power of incumbency. We tend to forget here at A2K that we represent a small minority of Americans: people so interested in politics that we actually take the time to research and discuss issues in depth! Many folks don't think much about this, and tend to vote for the same guy.

I think you are right about the Senate, I see 52 Dems left after the election, with a good possibility that there will be 53 or 54. Not that it really matters, our current Senate is so polarized that not one single bill of consequence will pass anyway.

The outcome of this election will either be a huge boon to or a death knell for the concept of the 'likely voter.' We'll see whose screens have been accurate this whole time.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

What are your thoughts re the Meg v Jerry Brown event coming to a poll place near you? Demoralizing choice, I think...

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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