Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

@msolga,

Quote:

I'm glad I didn't, RJB.

me too

As far as Castle, interesting, write ins seems in vogue right now.

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DailyKos highlights the ad Lisa Murkowski had to pull following her announcement to run in a write-in campaign. Luckily, her name doesn't have to be spelled correctly to be counted in the Alaska election.

http://www.dailykos.com/images/user/6685/MurkTypo.jpg

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VIRGINIA-09

The last poll I could find for this race is SurveyUSA's 9/03 report showing incumbent Democrat Rich Boucher leading Republican challenger Morgan Griffith by 10 points (50% - 40%).

This week, Rep. Boucher, who is seeking a 15th term in Congress, was successful in having a TV ad targeting his voting record pulled from a local Virginia station.

Virginia TV Station Pulls Ad Targeting Boucher

Quote:

At issue is an often cited study by the Washington Post which assigns a "party voting" score that represents the percentage of votes on which a lawmaker agrees with the position taken by a majority of his or her party members.

AJS references the study when it claims that "Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time" in its ad, which went on the air Sept. 9.

But after Boucher's complaint WSET-TV President Randy Smith reviewed the ad and found that the Washington Post study "does not appear to compare votes by Congressman Boucher with those by Ms. Pelosi nor does it equate Ms. Pelosi with the Democratic Party. Hence the ad appears to be misleading."

More at the link.

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New SurveyUSA polls for New York:

NY Governor:

Andrew Cuomo (D) 49%
Carl Paladino (R) 40%

NY Senate:

Chuck Schumer (D) 54%
Jay Townsend (R) 33%

Kristen Gillibrand (D) 45%
Joe DioGuardi (R) 44%

More at the link.

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Pew Poll: Republicans Have 13-Point Edge Among Independents

A Pew Research poll focusing on independent voters released Thursday afternoon has dire news for the Democratic Party: Republicans have a 13 percentage-point advantage among independents likely to vote in the 2010 midterms.

Pew President Andrew Kohut told the NewsHour that independents are rejecting the party in power -- again.

"Independents appear willing to vote against the party in power for the third consecutive election. The Republican Party is ahead and a significant part of that is that they have independent support," Kohut said, adding, "What's driving them in the Republicans' direction is discontent with the economy and Obama's performance with respect to it. We also see independents have become more conservative over the past two years and more concerned with the size of the government."

More at the link.

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Quote:

Poll: Murray 50, Rossi 48
A new SurveyUSA/KING5 poll has Sen. Patty Murray at 50 percent and her GOP challenger Dino Rossi at 48.

While within the sampling's 4.1 percent margin of error, the showing is an improvement for the incumbent from the same survey a month ago.

"Murray is up 5 points; Rossi is down 4, a 9-point momentum swing to the Democrat. Murray has cut into Rossi's leads among men, voters under age 50, and independents, and has increased existing leads among women and older voters. In Metro Seattle, which includes Snohomish, Pierce and King counties, the 2 candidates were tied 1 month ago; today, Murray leads by 7 points. In the rest of Western Washington, Rossi had led, now doesn't. In Eastern Washington, Rossi had led big, now leads small, "SurveyUSA said

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/222387.asp?from=blog_last3

I was surprised to see Murray doing so well, as the incumbent, and as a person who tends to be activist democrat, till a saw one of her commercials the other day. She sounded all the world like a tea party candidate. This could bite her though, if her running to the right keeps liberals from bothering to vote. I am still expecting Rossi to take it.

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@hawkeye10,

the poll average has Murray ahead by three, and holding...the Nine reported earlier in this thread is out of line

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-wa-sen/Murray-Rossi

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@hawkeye10,

It could be that Pacific Firewall mentioned by Nate Silver yesterday.

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@Irishk,

I dont know what the NYT's is feeding their simulation, but they now show on the chance of winning Murray breaking out with 76% chance. This seems really high to me with as much as polling for this race has been changing over time, and with the general mood of the country.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/washington

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@hawkeye10,

Nate Silver is an independent pundit whose 538 column is distributed by the NYT. As I recall he, as a college student in 2008, had an astonishingly successful prediction rate in contests up and down the ballot.
I am not a big fan of his.
I, too, stumbled when I read him state that Murray has something like a 2% lead and is a 3-1 favorite to hold her seat. I guess I haven't been following him closely enough to understand how he could make a statement like that.

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@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

New SurveyUSA polls for New York:

NY Senate:

Kristen Gillibrand (D) 45%
Joe DioGuardi (R) 44%

More at the link.

I first wrote about this race back in mid-May. To recap a bit:
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) was appointed 2 years ago to fill this seat when Hillary Clinton was appointed Secretary of State. She, by definition, is the incumbent.
The Republican primary was September 14th. Prior to that, she led any of the 3 Repubs by double digits. The Repubs settled on Joe DioGuardi.
He is 70 years old, a CPA (or chartered accountant for our Aussie audience), a former member of the US House (1985-1989). He is pro-life and now has the support of the Tea Party movement.
Here are the polls I have found taken since the primary:
9/21 SurveyUSA (LV): Gillebrand 45% DioGuardi 44%
9/21 Siena (RV): Gillebrand 57% DioGuardi 31% (really?)
9/20 Quinnipiac (LV): Gillebrand 48% DioGuardi 42%
9/16 Rasmussen (LV): Gillebrand 49% DioGuardi 39%

DioGuardi is not well known while Gillebrand - for better or worse - is. She voted for the bailout and the health care bill.
She has money and an organization. She will probably try to use her resources to define (negatively) DioGuardi.
I think Gillebrand can hold on to the seat unless the Tea Party is willing to commit a lot of money in a state where advertising is very expensive.

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@realjohnboy,

rjb wrote:

9/21 Siena (RV): Gillebrand 57% DioGuardi 31% (really?)

That poll was among registered voters, I believe. Both the Q poll and the SUSA polls were among likely voters. Maybe the difference in the numbers? I've been reading a lot lately about the 'intensity/enthusiasm' factor, etc. I still think she's ahead, regardless, and it's going to be a nail-biter. Isn't she the one Harry Reid described as 'hot'? Ha! Maybe they should have photos on the ballots Smile

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@Irishk,

Indeed. I indicated (LV) or (RV) but didn't explain those abbreviations. RV's, rightly or wrongly are regarded as less informed than LV's. Gillebrand is much more well known. Perhaps the RV's went for the name they had heard of.

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Good evening.
I set up a new thread called "The A2K November, 2010, Election Game!"
I asked people to predict the make up of the Senate after November 2nd.

I fully expect it to be a resounding failure. Thud.
Please feel free to stop in, do some campaigning, cast your vote and perhaps offer comments.

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@realjohnboy,

It probably won't be a resounding thud. Speaking only for myself, I probably won't be participating because the writings already on the wall and I don't like it. For me personally; it's like watching someone who through their drinking brought their family to ruin and finally sought help and just when he was getting on track decides to start drinking again.

1 Reply

@revelette,

Sure enough, revelette. The thread has had some 20 posts and 220 views. Picks from a half-dozen folks. I have yet to go trolling on the political threads, though. I will do that this weekend.

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NEVADA SENATE (9/23);
A new Mason-Dixon poll has this as a tie, which is pretty much where it has been amongst pollsters for a goodly while. They are each at 43%.
Harry Reid (D), the long time incumbent who is Senate majority leader, is battling Sharron Angle (R). She is one of the earliest crusaders for the Tea Party movement in this election cycle.
There are no fewer than 6 other candidates on the ballot, most of whom garner little support: 6% in total. One of them describes himself as a Tea Party supporter, but he seems unlikely to siphon votes away from Angle.
8% of those polled say they are undecided.
Angle made a few gaffes early on in her campaign but seems now to be more "on target" with her message.
What has to be distressing for Reid is that he is trailing amongst people who describe themselves as Independents...by some 20 points.
Reid, in my humble opinion, could win if he can mobilize voters, particularly Hispanic-American voters. He is behind the so-called DREAM amendment to a defense budget bill. It got stalled in Congress last week.
It would have allowed illegal immigrants' children not born in the U.S. to gain citizenship if they volunteered to serve in the military. I think I have that right.
Finally, there was a debate Thursday night in Nevada between Angle on stage vs Reid via a video feed from D.C. A brawl broke out in the Lutheran church auditorium where the event was held.

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@realjohnboy,

Quote:

Reid the Elder is up 45-40 over Sharron Angle

Reid the Younger is down to Brian Sandoval, 45-39

Survey conducted this week for Retail Association of Nevada by nationally known Public Opinion Strategies pollster Glen Bolger. RAN is releasing today. Lots of good information on taxes, judical questions also in poll, which is posted at right.

http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2010/09/24/NVStatewideRANSeptemberInterviewSchedule.pdf

This is a Republican polling firm!

Quote:

Finally, there was a debate Thursday night in Nevada between Angle on stage vs Reid via a video feed from D.C. A brawl broke out in the Lutheran church auditorium where the event was held.

Wow. Link to a story or such?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I remain the village idiot when it comes to links, Cyclo. Please don't bother taking the time to guide me through it. It is futile.
You can read about the brawl by going to Real Clear Politics (RCP) and going onto the story about the new poll. The Las Vegas Review-Journal covered it.
There is a video.

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Thanks, I found it.

In other news:

Quote:

The closely-watched race for Senate in Kentucky is now "a statistical dead heat," according to a new poll sponsored by one of the the state's largest papers. The Bluegrass Poll was conducted by automated phone call pollster SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal last week and shows Republican nominee Rand Paul leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway 49-47.

The last Bluegrass Poll, conducted in late August showed Paul ahead 55-40. In the ensuing weeks, the Courier-Journal reports, Conway has built momentum among women and those wary of Paul's extreme conservative views.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/12678

Wuh oh! That's a pretty big climb for Conway in the last month.

This was seen as a sure pickup for the Republicans... not looking so great at the moment, though I still believe Paul is going to win.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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