Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Have the Republicans peaked too early? Possible, but I don't think so.

Overall I find it very hard to be confident about any predictions this year. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the administration to be sure, but a lot of it extends to all of government and both political parties.

I believe a lot of folks just want less government and have come to believe that legislators and politicians of both parties, at worst are simply guided by their personal ambition and advancement, and at best usually fail to forsee the side effects of things they enact. In both cases less of it looks better and better.

'Just leave us alone' appears to be the preoccupation of the moment.

I heard a story today on NPR that may be pertinent, Georgeob1. It seems that some newspapers are giving "preliminary" endorsements to candidates because of the impact of early voting opportunities.
In Ohio, the case cited in the story, people can start voting tomorrow, a full 35 or so days ahead of Nov 2nd. Fully 1/3rd of Ohio voters will likely do so.
I am not sure newspapers' endorsements are worth anything anymore (I also saw that your paper endorsed neither Boxer nor Fiorina). But the papers are recognizing that a growing number of voters are voting well before the official election day. Obviously something may change between now and then, but many people will have already voted.
I am reminded of the southern politician (Edwin Edwards) who famously quipped that the only way he could lose an election would be if he were caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy near the end of a campaign. That is a totally throwaway line by me.

We saw enough of that last cycle that it mattered. I dont think that campaigns have any way to adjust for this, it is actually good for democracy because it makes manipulation of the electorate much more difficult. It no longer works as well as it did to save the best slime for the last couple of days, in the hopes that the other side does not have time to clear it up before the voting. The more days between the slime and the vote the dicier it gets, because if the other side can prove the the slime was a vindictive lie the thrower might easily be the one who gets hurt the most.

SENATE RACE: CONNECTICUT (9/26):
Rasmussen has a new poll out on this race to succeed the long-time Senator Chris Dodd (D).
Richard Blumenthal (D) - Attorney General - 50%
Linda McMahon (R) - Businesswoman - 45%
Blumenthal should win in a state that is quite blue (Dem). But this is surprisingly close. McMahon got off to a rocky start in her campaign and she made her personal fortune as the CEO of the World Wrestling Federation. It is regarded by some as a rather unsavory "sport."
Blumenthal, who has much higher name recognition, managed to sully his reputation by rather radically embellishing his resume regarding service in Vietnam....which turned out to not actually being there, as I recall.
There is a boatload of money being spent here.

What I see is the stunning ignorance of the public. For instance, look at the large numbers of birthers and tenthers.

I attended a political meeting last night in which a small businessman complained about his high taxes. He attributed them to high spending to create jobs and to various spending horror stories. Regarding the latter, the alleged wasted money amounted to peanuts in the scheme of things. He was apparently ignorant of the huge job losses occurring when Bush left office, the imminent failure of financial institutions and our auto companies, etc., necessitating the TARP and bailout spending. Had government not made these investments, we surely would have had another great depression.

WEST VIRGINIA SENATE (9/28):
Irishk and I have written about this in the last week. Joe Manchin (D) is the very popular Governor running to replace Robert Byrd (D), Senator forever, who died in July at the age of 92. John Raese (R) is little known but in polls Irishk and I mentioned he is doing well. Rasmussen confirms that today, showing Raese up by 2% (MOE of 4%).
Obama is an albatross for Manchin, garnering disapproval ratings in WV much higher than he does nationally. Manchin, because he has the luxury of being in state government rather then in Congress, is back peddling on issues like health care. He didn't have to vote on it. He favors repeal of portions of it.
I think Manchin will be able to hold on, but it could be very, very close. And it could determine the outcome regarding how the Senate splits.

I think Manchin will hold on as well.

I wish these Ras polls had more than 500 people, the margin of error on that is a little too large to get any useful data out of.

Cycloptichorn

The Ras poll in WV was of 500 LV and has a MOE of 4.5% at a 95% Conf Level.
His poll in CA on the Senate was of 750 LV at, I think, a 4% or 4.5%, also at 95% Conf. I trolled around polls by other outfits and found only a couple that had gotten up to a sample of 1000 LV's.

NEVADA SENATE (9/29):
I wrote a week ago about how this race is a total tossup, with Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) - seeking his 5th term - facing off against the Teaparty movement candidate Sharron Angle (R).
Rasmussen's poll out today doesn't reflect any change in the status of this.

I did, though, troll through a number of articles and found something quite amusing about the political process in Nevada. Voters unhappy with the candidates can, of course, just stay home. But they can also show up on election day and vote for "None of the above." It is unclear how many people will partake of that option or whom that would help/hurt - if either of them.

I note also that, 36 days before the election, Rasmussen is providing only bare bones coverage of its polling unless I agree to pay $20 a month to become a Platinum member. That is his right, but it sucks.

on the other hand this throws a huge monkey wrench into the argument of those who claim that this is a front organization for the conservatives. Needing/wanting to scratch for cash from the public is incompatible with being a conservative propaganda machine.

colorado... msnbc today I heard the pollster Quini*****k whatever, had Bennett up 2 points over the republican.

Good evening.
FLORIDA SENATE (9/29):
I think I would now put this race in the category of a Republican hold. New polls in the last couple of days show-
Marco Rubio (R) at around 41%
Charlie Crist (I) at about 30%
Kendrick Meek (D) around 21%

This is an open seat previously held Mel Martinez who resigned mid-term. Governor Crist, then a Repub, appointed a seat warmer. He figured he would easily win the seat in Nov, 2010.
Along came Marco Rubio, an attractive Cuban-American who is House speaker in Florida. Rubio is a conservative whose campaign the Teaparty movement jumped in on. Crist realized he was not going to win the Repub primary against Rubio. He bolted the party to run as an independent.
He figured that Rubio and the Tea Party would be perceived as too conservative, and that voters leaning towards Meek would realize he had no viable chance of winning.
Crist, who still enjoys very favorable ratings as Gov, thought he could peal off enough voters from Rubio and Meek to win.
It doesn't appear to be working out that way. Some 85% of Rubio's supporters polled said that their minds are made up. The numbers for Meek are much lower, but he is an African-American with big support in the Miami area. And the Dem leadership is still working on his behalf, even if it turns out to be futile.

Hi. I took a few days off but am now back. Less then 30 days to go before Nov 2nd. Congress has adjourned. Those folks facing re-election have gone home to sling mud at opponents in earnest.
The Dems seem to be saying, perhaps whistling past the graveyard, that there will not be as big of a bloodbath for them as projected. The Repubs have tempered their expectations a bit. The Teaparty movement is still the wild card, it seems to me.
I am going to spend some time over the next day or so catching up on things. Please feel free to comment.

Rasmussen (purportedly with a Repub bias) has President Obama with an approval rating today of -13. That is better than it has been recently. Rasmussen notes that, on a month over month basis, he has fairly consistently been around -17 for the last four months.
Rasmussen also claims today that those who favor repeal of the health care legislation passed earlier in the year has fallen to 50%. That is a low for an issue that is second, albeit a distant second, behind the broadly defined issue of the "economy."
I'll be back with reports on pollsters' and pundits' predictions.

(As a total aside, I just got back from following the election in Brazil this weekend. A self-professed "clown" won a congressional seat in Rio. He crushed his opponent with 1.2 million votes. The loser has filed a court challenge, questioning whether the "clown" is smart enough to participate in governing.)

Good morning, realjohnboy & Irishk.
I came across this excellent guide (I thought) to the current state of play in your midterm elections in the Guardian (UK) just now.
The interactive map on page 3 has up-to-date roll-over information on each state.
Interesting!
(101 question: why aren't there mid-term elections in the "grey" states on the page 3 map?)


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2010/oct/04/us-midterm-elections-map-2010

There are links just above the map for Senate >> House of Representatives >> Governors. The first map on page 3 is the Senate map and the grey states just indicate states where there's no Senate election for the 2010 midterm. Senators serve 6-year terms.

On the Governors map, there are also 'grey' states indicating those states that aren't holding elections for Governor this year. Governors serve 4-year terms.

House members for all states are elected every two years.

HTH.

Cool link, thanks!

I've been traveling and been in meetings this week or so. 22 days until election day. Back tomorrow.

My pleasure, Irishk.
I'd figured out the senate situation by taking another look at the information on the link. Ah, governors serve 4 year terms & House members ever 2 years. (gosh, constant House elections!)
Thanks.

Good morning to everyone on a nice Autumn day in Virginia.

The races heat up as the days wind down before November 2nd. The political ads get more and more nasty In Nevada, Angle (R) informs voters that Reid (D) favors giving Viagra to convicted pedophiles.
SENATE-
Rasmussen has this at 48-48 with 4 tossups. Real Clear Politics (RCP), a compilation of polls, has it as 48 Dems vs 46 Repubs with 6 tossups.

California: Boxer (D) leads Fiorina (R) 49% to 45% according to a week-old poll by Rasmussen. RCP comes up with about the same lead. There is also a high profile race for Governor there. In addition, there is an initiative (referendum) on the ballot that calls for the legalization of marijuana. Ballot initiatives are a bizarre phenomenon in CA. This one could result in a larger turnout of voters in CA then is normal in a mid-term election. Supposedly that could favor Dems. I see that a couple of execs or former execs of Facebook gave $170K in support of the initiative.
Illinois: Rasmussen last week had Kirk (R) leading Ginnoulias (D) up by 4% in this race for the seat once held by Obama. RCP has Kirk up by 1%. Turnout will be crucial, here.
Nevada: Angle (R) leads the veteran Reid (D) by 4% according to a Rasmussen poll reported on Thursday. RCP has it as a dead heat. As noted, this has turned into a nasty race with both candidates hurling insults and innuendos at each other.
Washington: Rasmussen says (10/8) that Rossi (R) is up by 3 over the Democrat incumbent Murray. RCP lists it as a tossup. Again, turnout will probably decide this one.

Connecticut: Blumenthal (D) appears to be wrestling down McMahon (R) in a race that was once considered a tossup. He, according to RCP, is up by about 9%.
Wisconsin: Feingold, the long time incumbent Dem, appears to be poised to get sent home by Johnson (R). Rasmussen has Johnson up by 12 in an old poll. Well, 10 days old.
West Virginia: Raese (R) leads the popular Gov Manchin (D) by 6, says Rasmussen. RCP says it is closer to a tossup.
In WI and WV, in particular, the anti-Obama, anti-incumbency attitude seems to resonate.

Some pundits seemed to suggest earlier in the week that the Repubs and/or the Tea Party movement may have peaked too early. And the approval/disapproval rating for Obama has moved slightly in his favor in the past few days.
But it seems to me that the Likely Voters who have already voted or who will show up November 2nd will tend to vote Repub. The Dems could hang on to a slim majority in the Senate, but it would be by no more than one seat.

This is amusing, at least to me.
Jerry Brown (D) is running against Meg Whitman (R) for Governor of California. Polls I have seen have Brown ahead, but within the margin of error.
Brown called a police union seeking their endorsement, which he apparently did not get. He hung up the phone, or thought he hung up the phone. But he evidently did not.
Someone in Brown's office is reportedly heard referring to Whitman as a whore. It could have been Brown, or perhaps his wife - who is active in his campaign. Or maybe it was a staffer.
Brown is keeping a bit of a low profile this weekend.

FLORIDA SENATE-
Marco Rubio (R) is well ahead of Governor Charlie Crist (formerly a Repub but now running as an Independent) and Evan Meek (D).
Crist thought he could siphon off votes from Rubio (who has some Tea Party support) and the more liberal Meek. Crist was wrong.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Meek may withdraw from the race and ask his supporters to vote for Crist. If that were to occur, Crist could get very close to Rubio.
But I can't see that happening, unless the Dems are worried about Rubio in 2012. He, a Cuban-American, is smart, ambitious and has managed to straddle the line between traditional Republicanism and the Tea Party movement.