Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

And similar sentiments from Public Policy Polling:

Thank you for that link - without you I would have missed it as I never read that rag even though I live and work in Manhattan. It includes the most plaintively weasely explanation of "how come my predictions were off the mark by so very, very, far?!" I've read in a very long time
[quote]I’m not saying that we’d carefully considered Ms. O’Donnell’s case and assigned it zero probability. Rather, it wasn’t something I’d thought about at all... [/quote]

This one is even better than the NYT's "forecaster" - he doesn't even bother to come up with an explanation for his abject failure! Thank you again.

I can't thank you enough for acquainting me with yet another incompetent pollster. This one is the best of the lot you posted so far >

> implying as he does (probably inadvertently) that the abysmal legislative initiatives of the Obama administration just "happened" to them.

Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report has this to say:

I think this could actually be a big moment here. The infighting on Republican blogs today is intense. I had been waiting for a Tea Partier to beat a Republican establishment favorite, and now we'll see if my true hopes come true... that they turn on each other with vigor.

The funny thing is, the Republicans have more to lose from these Tea Parties than the Dems do. By a lot.

Cycloptichorn

You're welcome.

I stayed up far too late last night!
The result in Delaware has been and will be fodder for pundits for days, with much discussion of the ramifications for the GOP, the Dems and for the Tea Party movement.
I read today about how the Repubs can still get to a 51 seat majority in the Senate.
The current division is 57 Dems, 41 Repubs and 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems.
The Repubs need to hold their 41. No problem there.
They have to win the 3 races listed as "Sure" wins: North Dakota, Arkansas and Indiana. That seems doable.
They have to win the 3 races that are listed as "Likely Rep:" Pennsylvania, Illinois and Colorado. Hmm. They could do that, but I could 1 of those not going Repub.
And they have to win 4 of the 6 races listed as:
"Leans Repub:" Connecticut and West Virginia, and
"Tossups:" California, Nevada, Washington and Wisconsin. I see them as getting a maximum of 3.

I and perhaps my poll watching buddy Irishk will focus on those races along with Delaware in the next few days.

I believe the division between the GOP and tea partiers will increase as it gets closer to the elections in November. The tea party can only derail the GOP hopes of gaining a majority in congress, and that one issue will flare up into a brawl come November.

The writing on the board doesn't look for them when the race is so close.

the people dont care which party controls congress, they care that Congress once again works for the people rather than the corporate interests. Neither party is doing their jobs so even if nothing had been done to fix the problem control of Washington was going to bounce back between them, as who ever is currently in power gets most of the punishment. So if the Tea party knocking off corporate sponsored GOP candidates means the the GOP does not run Congress for two years when they had the chance, who the **** cares. The old GOP was not going to get the job done either so there is no loss.

It took two generations for the Corporate class to take over Washington, the people getting it back is not going to happen over two election cycles. This is a process, and reforming the GOP even as it costs the GOP chances to control the Senate is both worthwhile and is part of a bigger agenda that not only makes sense, but is critical to getting America back on track.

Maybe after yesterday the GOP gets the message that they have no choice but to allow reform, they have no choice but to enlarge the tent to allow for the people, and to allow for the people who are demanding that Washington give up much of the power that it has accumulated over recent generations.

After the GOP gets reformed hopefully the DEM Party does as well. If not they will become the minority party for a long time, if not that then they will be replaced.

hawk, Did you know you made a direct contradiction to what the republican party stands for? You are a farse first class, (From Wiki):

The Corporate bailouts that are at the expense of the taxpayers, which includes not only individuals but also the majority of Main Street, distroyed the alliance between the Corporate class and the entrepreneurial class. Small business stake holders not only have no interest in subsidizing the Corporate class, but they see clearly how unfair this is, and how contrary to the best interests of capitalism and the health of United States of America this wealth redistribution is. They also see that while the corporate class claimed that corrupting Washington would be good of all business stakeholders, that when the **** hits the fan the Corporate class will take all the gold for themselves and not help out the little guy. Main Street got lied too, and they are now fully aware that they got lied too. Small business republicans are now fully on-board the teaparty express, they see removing power from Washington as necessary now, because Washington got bought by people who are not going to keep their word to look out for them.

EDIT: Another big thing is that small business stakeholders are closer to the action than the corporate class is. The corporate class long ago forgot that in order for businesses to thrive people must be able to afford what is attempting to be sold. The American people have been through decades of a deteriorating economy, which for awhile they ignored by taking on debt. But those days are over, only with income from jobs can people support purchases. There is zero interest in washington to fixing this problem because the corporate class does not see the problem. Small business stakeholders are now firmly convinced that Washington while owned by the corporate class will never see and fix the problem and thus Washington will continue to blindly drive America into the ditch. Now is the time for the people to take back the wheel, because while it might lead to disaster, we are already for sure headed there if we don't do anything. We have nothing to lose.

You CI have again shown how out of touch you are with what is going on in America now.

Good evening.
I fully realize that this thread, which blissfully languished in obscurity for 10 months, is getting slightly more attention now. And the tone of some of the recent posts has disheartened me. There are so many other threads available for hurling insults. But I can't do anything about that.
Many of the people watching this thread are casual observers of this upcoming election. A number of them don't even live in the U.S. but have told me that they have been following the numbingly boring polls that Irishk and I have been posting for months and months.
The Tea Party movement is an amazing phenomenon this time around. We have had third parties in the U.S., but they never have had much lasting impact. The Tea Party is not an actual party though.
I am wondering, Hawkeye, whether you would have the time to research and summarize the Tea Party movement for us here?
I don't know if you are a fan of NPR. On Morning Edition and All Things Considered this week there have been numerous stories about the Tea Party, with several more to come. I am sure that other media outlets have something similar going on.
I would appreciate a few short paragraphs reporting on the gist of the story rather than just a link.
Would you be interested in taking the job, Hawkeye?
Thanks

Colorado? Buck and Bennet have been tied in the polls, it seems, for the past few weeks. Have you seen a new one? Rasmussen hasn't polled this race since 8/30 when they had Buck leading by 3. A week later another firm had Bennet leading by 3.

Ras did a poll today, 49-45 Buck leading.

Cycloptichorn

That's sort of what it said in the RCP article, Irishk. They d0n't quite use "Likely" or "Leaning" as some other pundits do. I noted that I questioned the conclusion in 1 of the 3. CO was it. IL? Um, I am not sure.

Thanks, Cy. The page is messed up for me -- it shows the poll for OH governor twice, but nothing for CO Senate. So, Colorado is still tied...should be a cliffhanger.

Maybe. The problem of course is that the Tea Party Movement is complicated, fluid, it runs primarily off the grid because most everything happens between individuals mostly in private. There is a diverse group of people who support it and probably hundreds of reasons why they do. There are a lot of different aperations for the movement most of them will not be realized but it is not clear where this movement will be next year or even next week, so people will move in and out of it depending upon which way it goes.

Is there anything that almost all agree on? That Washington is broken for sure. That Washington needs to be depowered most would agree with. That along with the cutting of Washington power will come the cutting of programs and the cutting of taxes used to support those programs as well is agreed to. There is broad hostility to the victim culture and the ability of those who take the victim identity to game the system for their benefit and taxpayer expense and because of corrupt Washington and the courts which want to legislate the people often dont get a say in whether to fund all of the victims demands or not. The victims demand, the victims get, the taxpayers are expected to pay the bills with never having been given a voice. This violates everything that America is supposed to stand for, it is wrong, and all it does is encourage more claims to be filed . Most in the Tea Party would agree that we need to see a lot less crying out "I am a victim, give me!" and a lot more work from these same people and contributing to the common cause. Tea Party movement people would generally agree with the Zen philosophy of "no work=no eating"...if you want something then work for it, don't expect government charity. And for damn sure don't promote government charity programs, as at the end of the day all they do is ruin people for a happy productive life.

It is amazing to read your statement that Washington needs to be depowered. Clearly, the opposite is true. It was Bush's suspension of oversight and regulation that nearly got us into another great depression. Do you remember Bush's SEC chair, Harvey Pitt, who came in saying that he would give us a kinder and gentler SEC? I'm sure that Goldman Sachs, Madoff, et al., were delighted to hear that. And, of course, S&P, Moodies, et al., felt free to overrate crappy securities. And you want Washington out of the picture? That is amazingly stupid.

Obviously I agree with the idea that Washington must be depowered. Washington will retain some functions, and the functions that the people leave in Washington they must execute. I think that there is broad agreement that monitoring and regulating the Corporate functions will continue to be a job for Washington. Up to now Washington has not done this effectively, and when problems arise because they dont do this right the solution has been to throw our money at the problem. This has got to stop, Government must get it right, and not need our money to fix problems that never should have happened in the first place.