Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

Cook updated his House forecast yesterday, as well. More bad news...

More bad news? For whom, on this thread that we are trying, oh so hard, to keep bipartisan.

@realjohnboy,

For Cy's prediction on the House.

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NEW YORK SENATE-
The GOP will have a primary on September 14th to select a candidate for the Senate seat held by Kirsten Gillibrand.

The favorite seems to be David Malpass, an economist who served in the Reagan administration. Bruce Blakeman is a Nassau County commissioner. He is not directly linked to but is tainted by allegations of corruption there. Joe DioGuardi is a 70 year old former congressman who has been out of office for more than a decade. His Italian name and his pro-life position may benefit him.

Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate 18 months ago to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. She has never been elected to any office.
A recent Quinnipiac poll shows her getting only 45% of the vote against a generic Repub candidate. She has voted in favor of a number of President Obama's initiatives, including the TARP "bailout" of banks.
She does have a lot of campaign money and party organization to fall back on.

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Well as you know there is a bit of a kerfuffle in the Delaware Senate race to fill Biden's vacated seat. For conservatives, like myself, it, at first, seemed as if we were caught on the horns of a dilemma: hold one's nose and go with 'moderate' Castle or put it all on the line for O'Donnell. At first blush it would have seemed we should follow our (conservative) principles and stand behind O'Donnell, but as time progressed the blush on the O'Donnell rose lessened. Worrisome, initially, were the polls that showed a weak Odonnell vs. the Dem cand. Then Erickson of RedState left her at the alter by refusing to devote any more time to her candidacy. Both his reason for doing so and a new troubling fact have come to light at The Weekly Standard.

Also, there were actions by members of her campaign staff to label Castle as cheating on his wife in a Gay Way sans any credible evidence. At this point this may all be for the best. Castle has pretty much been the favorite here all along. I could not see an O'Donnell in the general carrying all this baggage as having any chance of winning this.

JM

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@JamesMorrison,

I read an article in the L.A. Times earlier today regarding this Senate race. They were pointing out that O'Donnell is within striking distance of beating Castle. Now I'm wondering, with this latest news you've uncovered at The Weekly Standard, if they've shot themselves in the foot. DailyKos has been watching this race and I've been keeping up with it there. As Kos pointed out last Thursday, Democrat Chris Coons is polling better against O'Donnell than against Castle. You have to be a registered Republican to vote in the GOP primary, I think, so this will be an interesting primary to watch this Tuesday.

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Thanks, JM, for the Delaware update. I had and still do have this as being a Repub hold, but I was certainly not aware of the story there.

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@Irishk,

Quote:

Democrat Chris Coons is polling better against O'Donnell than against Castle. You have to be a registered Republican to vote in the GOP primary, I think, so this will be an interesting primary to watch this Tuesday.

Exactly. Yes, only those registered in that party are allowed to vote in the primary. So, the choice here ( for conservatives ) is whether they want to have a liberal Castle in the Senate or a liberal Democrat there. Just read something on RedState that puts O'Donnell on top . But even conservatives on RedState are split like here and here.

Both hogan and Knight have excellent points. Fortunately I don't live in Delaware and won't be voting, but this should be interesting. Do you have the Poll for Coons v s. O'Donnell? I wonder if O'Donnel can get enough independents on her side. Also, Delaware seems a pretty Blue state but does tea party anger here mean anything here? Just saw Rasmussen generic: GOP favored there at 48/36. Nationally, to say this is a rough year for Dems is an understatement.

JM

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Sorry, the Rasmussen generic is here.

JM

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What made Steele change his position"

"You have the President proposing a small business bill ... [based] on the assumption that small businesses are going to go and take out credit loans, or credit lines -- they don't need that."
-- RNC Chair Michael Steele, 9/10/10

VERSUS

"Republican leadership on the Hill has offered time and time again and will continue to do so until they take the majority in November when they can actually begin to act and put into place these policies that empower small businesses by creating -- helping them create jobs by opening up capital and credit markets."
-- Steele, 9/03/10

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Here you go, JM, with-

DELAWARE REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY (Sept 14th):
Conservative activist Christine O'Donnell now, according to a poll of 668 LV released Sept 12th, has taken a 47% to 44% lead over moderate/liberal (choose one) Mike Castle. Castle is a member of the U.S. House.
Sarah Palin endorsed O'Donnell on Thursday, September 9th, before the poll was taken. 35% view Palin's endorsement as positive while 24% see it as a negative. Among those who see it as a positive, some 80% support O'Donnell.
The Delaware Senate seat was held by Joe Biden who gave it up to become President Obama's Vice President. Ted Kaufman was appointed as a seat-warmer until the upcoming election. Chris Coons became the Dem nominee after Beau Biden, Joe's son, chose not to run. I see from my March 1st note that that was a bit unexpected.
Coons in some out of date polls trailed Castle but lead versus O'Donnell. But those are old polls.

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@JamesMorrison,

DelawareOnline reports on the PPP poll that just came out on the Delaware GOP primary and has this to say on the matchup between Democrat Chris Coons and the potential GOP nominee:

Quote:

All polls of the general election released so far have shown Castle leading Coons and Coons leading O’Donnell.

Public Policy Polling said on their website that they will release numbers on the general race later in the week, but hinted that Coons has gained ground on both Castle and O’Donnell from their last poll. In their previous poll conducted in early August, Castle was leading Coons by 13 points and Coons leading O’Donnell by seven points.

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I see that Ken Rudin of NPR has started a blog there along with links to other pundits. I met him at a reception here in Cville earlier in the year. He has an encyclopedic knowledge of political history.
I am a bit miffed that neither he nor his staff responded to an email I sent him about an arcane time bomb issue that will come out in mid October. I may try again next week.

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@Advocate,

Most conservatives eventually contradict themselves when given enough time or rope.

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From RCP today. It's long, so I've only posted a portion; remainder at link:

Signs of a Democratic Rebound?

Quote:

It's always dangerous to see a handful of polls and start talking about a trend. At the same time, most trends start with a few polls that look like they might be outliers, but move in the same direction at the same time. And so it's worth noting that over the weekend, there were a few polls moving in the same direction showing good news for Democrats. On the other hand, there were still plenty of polls showing bad news for Democrats, so we must be cautious interpreting these data; we really just see "green shoots" for Democrats amid what had previously been uniformly bad polling news.

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@Irishk,

Thanks both to you and RJB for the info. I was looking to see whether O'Donnell had any way, at all, to garner enough non-GOP or non-strict conservative votes, such as Independents, to be successful in the general.

I just found this at Rasmussen. Given this info and that of you guys, it looks, again, like Castle is the GOP's best best bet in the general. Assuming, in the general, that all Republicans vote for an O'Donnell in the general she still needs another 11% just to tie. That would require her to take all the undecided plus 2% of those who prefer some sort of 'also ran' candidate. I don't see that, or any combination of that happening. So the only chance I see for her is if she wins the primary and Castle is gracious enough to use his popularity to vouch for her. But then the baggage she carries plays into Dem hands.

Oh well, by the end of tomorrow we will know at least the first half of this story! Smile

JM

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IrishK:
I, too, noticed that refrain over the past few days. I am wondering if it is true or just Democrats whistling past the graveyard.
I think it is possible that the Republicans, evidenced by what we just mentioned in the Delaware Senate race, may be splitting into right wing vs moderate factions.
The big problem for the Dems, as I see it, is that Obama promised "change." And the young and the minorities enthusiastically embraced that. Two years on, there is a sense of disaffection amongst folks who expected instant results. A malaise, perhaps, has set in.
The Dems know who those people are. They have email and cell phone data. But I am not sure that they can energize them in the 50 remaining days until November 2nd.

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@realjohnboy,

Totally agree, rjb, especially on the instant-gratification part. I'd only add that it was always going to be the economy and jobs, jobs, jobs, IMO, and now the news (Goolsbee saying high unemployment for a very long time, etc.) just adds to the malaise. I was browsing the polls today and noticed Gallup's new one on approval ratings of major legislation passed by Congress. Only one is above water with the voting public (finance reform) but the other four lost the approval of Independents, who could ultimately tilt the results either way. I think they're the ones who'll decide this election.

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Tuesday is the primary for NY state.

I will be participating in the following exercise because it's the first election for NY's new paper ballot system and already there are far too many people crying foul because of the ballot's lackluster design.

Quote:

Primary Day Is Here: We Need Your Help!
Text your ballot stories to WNYC and It's A Free Country
Monday, September 13, 2010

As you have been hearing, one of the big story lines this election season is the switch to a new ballot design. Will your experience be like Brian and Azi's (not so smooth)? WNYC and It's A Free Country want to know. Text BALLOT to 30644 to share your experience using the new paper ballot. We'll text you back with all the instructions you need. On primary day, we'll be using your stories to enhance our coverage.Text right now and you'll receive a reminder on primary day. (Your carrier's standard messaging rates apply.)

http://beta.wnyc.org/articles/its-free-country/2010/sep/13/primary-day-here-we-need-your-help/

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

...... an arcane time bomb issue that will come out in mid October. ...

Which?

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Democrat Chris Coons polling 26 points better than Republican Christine O'Donnell

PPP

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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