Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Good afternoon, Revelette. Welcome.
I fully realize from my 8 years on A2K and before that on Abuzz that a thread can veer off in other directions and there is nothing that the creator of the thread can do about it.
I am actually surprised that this thread has lasted for 10 months. I would attribute that to the fact that there are many other threads where people can and do spend an inordinate amount of time screaming at each other. A second factor is that this thread is mind-numbingly dull for many.
I have once been called an "ass" for being protective of this thread. In fact I was probably wrong in my interpretation of what lead up to that.
A review of the 20+ pages will show that there are not as many posters as I had hoped commenting on races, particularly in their regions. That might change.
You might be interested to know that I have heard privately from more people then I expected - including people from outside the U.S. - about how they are watching this thread simply because the posters have tried hard to keep it confined to the spirit of what it was conceived to be: snapshots of the mid-term elections in a difficult political and economic environment.
With regard to your original comment, I would bet that we could find polling data that would show why and when the shift in sentiment that you lament came about.
Welcome, again. -realjohnboy

You could make a killing on Intrade's 2010 US House of Representatives Control -- if you were a betting man.

New Gallup poll out today:

Job Approval Ratings Low for Both Parties in Congress

LAME DUCK CONGRESS
Johnboy and 999 other LV participated in Rasmussen's poll on Sept 6 and 7 regarding what should happen between election day and the installation of the new, possibly Republican controlled Congress in January.
85% of those polled believe that it as least Somewhat Likely that the Dems will continue try to pass major legislation with 65% saying it is Very Likely.
63% say that Congress should not consider new legislation of significance.
Not surprisingly, Republicans strongly believe the Democrat majority Congress should not undertake anything new or controversial during the Lame Duck session.
Democrats were evenly split.

there has been a good deal of speculation on what the Dems will do. Does anyone think that they can round up the votes for one last push of a liberal agenda that the voters will have just in effect voted against? Do the Dems really think that they will escape such an act without being punished for it in two years, most notably by getting rid of Obama no matter how bad a candidate the GOP puts up?

This is a dangerous game for the Dems to play...the people are already highly sensitive to being disregarded in Washington..more of the same will not be good.

The same Rasmussen poll asked about what I would call the PRE-LAME DUCK CONGRESS (i.e. the 2 months between now and November 2nd):
44% of those polled believe Congress will pass legislation of significance between now and election day while 47% regard that possibility as unlikely.
36% think Congress should at least try while 41% say Congressional efforts should not bother.

FLORIDA SENATE (Sept 7th)
CNN/Time have this as:
Rubio (R) - 36%
Crist (I) - 34%
Meek (D) - 24%
The poll was of 899 RV.
We probably can't directly compare that to, say, the Aug 25th Rasmussen poll of LV, but to me it shows that Rubio is not getting much stronger vs Crist. But that can be of little solace to Crist as Meek, despite having little chance of winning, is not seeing his support wane. Crist needs to peel off some of Meek's backers. So far, that does not seem to be happening.

Crist has twice the money in his warchest as Rubio and Meek -- more than $8M. With less than 2 months to go, he'll probably be flooding the airwaves.

Marco Rubio Holds Double-Digit Lead in Senate Race

The survey of likely voters shows Rubio with 43 percent, independent Charlie Crist with 29 percent, Democrat Kendrick Meek with 23 percent and the remaining 5 percent undecided.

The Voter Survey Service poll surveyed 1,016 voters Sept. 1-5 and Sept. 7, and had a margin of error of 3 percent.

More at the link.

Conducted by Voter Survey Service, Sunshine State News' final gubernatorial poll, taken a week before the Aug. 24 primary, was the only poll to hit the mark, predicting a 2 percentage-point win for Rick Scott. Scott won by 2.9 percent.

Democracy Corps, the firm of James Carville and Stan Greenberg, has released the results of its latest survey.

On a generic Congressional ballot among registered voters (p.5), the GOP leads by six points, 48/42, and among likely voters, seven points at 49/42.

This is essentially unchanged from their poll of 2 months ago.

Full results at the link.

Lame Duck and Pre Lame Duck Congress:
Politico today reports that the House, which is scheduled to come back from the Labor Day holiday, appears to be heading for a very short session before adjourning ahead of the elections. The House could be in D.C. for a mere 11 days.
So far the Senate has not followed suit but that could change.
Congress has just 2 issues on the immediate "to do" list. One is a routine extension of legislation that keeps the government running. The other is the possible passage of bills to provide aid to small businesses.
Both parties are quite willing to punt on the extension of the Bush era tax cuts until after November 2nd.

The small business bill will pass the Senate; Voinovich, who is retiring, will be the 60th vote, per his announcement yesterday.

Cycloptichorn

I must admit that I have not been following the small business bill.

haha, that's because we ALL thought it to be Dead on Arrival.

Cycloptichorn

The extension of the tax cuts issue will be much more contentious, but discussion of that probably belongs on one of the other threads. Or perhaps a new thread just on that.

Newest House forecast from Nate Silver's New York Times blog:

G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts



Full analysis at the link.

I would definitely be more worried about my predictions if we were right before the elections. I think that the Dems still have a good chance to roll out a response to the Republican narrative... but they'd better get on it.

Cycloptichorn

He mentions that towards the end of the analysis. Also comments to a long-time blog follower that he'll, of course, keep us updated.

You have to admit his methodology is impressive.

His track record is impressive. Like in past years, I think that he will update it on a weekly and then daily basis as the election comes closer.

Cycloptichorn

Cook updated his House forecast yesterday, as well. More bad news and I didn't link it.