Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

SurveyUSA's most recent poll in the Kentucky Senate race shows Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway by 15 points:

In Kentucky in 2010, just like in other states, men do not like what Democrats have to offer: In an election for the open United States Senator seat from Kentucky today, 09/02/10, Republican Rand Paul defeats Democrat Jack Conway, 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Paul is up 4 points; Conway is down 3. There is important learning in the movement among men, which is consistent with SurveyUSA polling in other hi-profile 2010 state contests. Men have turned their backs on the Democrats. The Democrat Conway got 44% of male voters in May, 38% in July, 31% today, in September.

The erosion in male support, observed in California polling and Washington state polling, is occurring regardless of whether there is a Tea Party candidate on the ballot.

Rasmussen last polled this race on 8/18/10 and showed Paul leading by 9 points, 49% to 40%.

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Good afternoon. The pollsters and pundits are aligning this weekend in concluding that the Dems are, in political parlance, in "deep doo-doo."
The House will go Repub is the consensus by anywhere from one seat to many.
The Repubs will end up with a bunch more Governors (which could be important in the gerrymandering that occurs after each census).
And the Senate could go either way but the split is likely to be only by a seat or so.
The generic ballot shows the Repubs up by 10 points which harkens back to 1994, when the Repubs had a very, very good mid-term election result.
President Obama's approval rating (per Rasmussen) hit an all time low for him both in Strongly Approve - Strongly Disapprove and in Approve - Disapprove.
Oddly enough, just 4 days ago he had one of the better ratings in his term.
The new jobless numbers etc weighed on him as did his Iraq speech on Tuesday which came across as being nothing more than "same ole/same ole."
Polls show that people who describe themselves as Dems are demoralized and less likely to stay involved this time around.

But...it seems to me that, while the Dems are certainly in trouble, it may not be appropriate to assume that there will be a total bloodbath come November 2nd.
The Dems have a large amount of money at their disposal compared to the the Repubs. There are House seats in play where the Repubs will not be able
to spend as much as they may need to. And, for what it is worth, the Dems have a huge database of Obamaites from 2008.
The GOP is in disarray with the mainstream Repubs heading in one direction and the right wing marching off in another. The Repubs probably need a leader to heal that split. I am not sure who that might be.
That divide in the party suggests that the Repubs may have trouble getting out a message that allows them to shed the label of "Party of No." They say that, before the end of September, they will present an agenda for the next two years before we do this all again. That may end up being a bruising battle.
57 days to go before November 2nd!
(ps: I am still "virtually" in Australia where the election there is undecided after 2 weeks. There are 3 independents who would do well in Chicago - offering to support whichever party is willing to give them the most pork for their districts. Labour will win that battle, me thinks. Msolga promises me I can come home on Tuesday.)
Cheers.

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Both Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg have started the week by revising their House forecasts:

Quote:

The Cook Political Report
New House Outlook: GOP Net Gain of At Least 40 Seats
September 7, 2010
Over the summer, the "macro" national diagnostic indicators have pointed toward very large Republican gains but only now can we look race-by-race, a micro-political approach, and see the district level data to say that the House has reached the tipping point. For the first time, our internal race-by-race model estimates a GOP gain of over 40 seats. We are revising our House forecast to a Republican gain of at least 40 seats, the minimum to give them majority status, and very possibly substantially more.

Quote:

Wave builds for GOP in the House
Stuart Rothenberg September 6, 2010
National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Democratic incumbents seek to drive up Republican challengers’ negatives and strengthen their standing in ballot tests.

ElectionProjection has also revised their forecast to reflect the GOP will win back the House by exactly one seat.

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How cool is this?
I got an automated call from Rasmussen last evening! So I assume I will end up in the sample of 500 LV for the each of the next 3 days of his rolling polls.
The female voice started out with demographic questions (age, sex, race and income) and then probed to determine whether or not I am a LV. I am.
She asked how I would classify myself politically (very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, very conservative).
The next question was predictable for those of us who follow Rasmussen regularly: with regards to Obama, do I Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove or Strongly Disapprove?
That was followed by the generic ballot question: in a race between a hypothethical Republican and a hypothetical Democrat who would I vote for.

New to me was a series of questions that Rasmussen hasn't asked before. I tried to make notes while keeping up with the poll. The gist went something like this:
The election is in early November with the winners joining Congress in January. (I would call this, for short-hand, two months of a lame duck Congress).
> Should the President introduce legislation during that time even if it is considered partisan.
> Should the Republicans oppose such legislation even if that action is considered partisan.
> Should the administration and Congress consider new legislation during the lame duck period on a bi-partisan basis.
> Should the administration and Congress not consider any significant new legislation until the new Congress convenes .
Again, my wording is probably sloppy, but it will be interesting to see how Rasmussen reports it in the next few days. Or perhaps the data they collect will be deemed inconclusive.

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@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

How cool is this?

Very cool! Do you have Caller ID, and if so, does Rasmussen use a toll-free number? (Hopefully the prefix wasn't '666' lol)

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@Irishk,

I don't have a cell phone. Still just a land line. I do not have caller id. I have tried to wade through the various discussions about how pollsters are dealing with the proliferation of cell phones and all of the ramifications involved. They claim that they can make adjustments to reflect all of that. I seem to recall that here and on other threads we talked about this.

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@realjohnboy,

Thanks, rjb! Out of curiosity, I looked it up and since Ras is headquartered in New Jersey, the area code will probably be 732. I'll make a mental note to answer those calls. I think it would be a hoot to hear what questions they ask.

BTW, Nate has a good post up today on the question of 'are Dems are running from healthcare?'. He actually gives the GOP props on their coherent agenda. Here's his chart on Issues Highlighted on Web sites of Democratic and Republican Candidates in 33 Toss-up Districts

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/fivethirtyeight/drissues.png

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I've seen a lot of talk here from Conservatives who are excited about that 10-point Gallup party ID gap. I warned them then not to read too much into it...

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/117489-dems-close-gap-to-tie-gop-in-gallups-generic-ballot-poll

Quote:

Say goodbye to the 10-point lead Republicans enjoyed in last week's Gallup poll of generic congressional preferences.

Gallup's weekly tracking poll of the generic ballot, a key predictor of voters' actions in elections, showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 46 percent -- down from the 10-point lead the GOP held just a week ago.

Still a long two months till election day.

Cycloptichorn

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From watching TV and reading the news on the internet and just reading from here; it seems like there will be huge republican gains in the coming election. Like dogs; voters can't get enough of their own vomit. The tea party have succeeded beyond anybody’s expectations mostly just demonizing every idea Obama has had even if they have make up facts to do it. Now we can get ready for absulutely nothing getting done as the republicans are just going to continue to do what works for them. 'Just Say No' has a whole new meaning.

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@revelette,

Since rjb has given up much of his time (many, many hours actually) and appealed for civil discourse from day one of this thread, I would respectfully repost his words in hopes of him continuing his valuable (and btw, non-partisan) contributions:

Quote:

Welcome to this thread, by the way, but I expect that the very few others who are here would appreciate it not becoming a site for mindless vitriolic attacks. But we can't control that and we know it. So it goes.

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Republicans Have One in Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows

By NATE SILVER
Republicans now have approximately a one-in-four chance of winning enough Senate seats in the Nov. 2 elections to claim an outright majority of the chamber, FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecasting model shows.

That the composition of the Senate is in doubt is not a new development; the model had assigned Republicans better than a one-in-five chance of claiming the chamber upon its debut at The New York Times two weeks ago. Nevertheless, nearly every day now seems to bring another sour piece of polling news for the Democrats.

Today, for instance, a poll for The Washington Post showed Republicans with a 13-point lead among likely voters on the generic Congressional ballot, which would imply a potentially catastrophic outcome for Democrats. Although the polling trend is not always uniform or predictable — Gallup’s generic ballot poll, which had given Republicans a 10-point advantage last week, now shows the two parties running evenly — the Democrats’ hopes for a spontaneous political recovery this summer now appear to be dashed.

To continue reading, click on the link above.

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@Irishk,

I didn't read the beginning of this thread, but thanks. My excuse is that I am so frustrated with the politics and the direction of the voting public. I just don't understand why people want to make the same mistakes over and over again. I still stand by my previous post but perhaps in the spirit of the thread of which I was unware I should have worded it differently. I am partisan and never pretended otherwise however, I since I seem to not be able to follow or understand the rules here...no biggie.

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@revelette,

RJB would be the first to tell you there are no 'rules'. I spoke for him in perhaps my own knee-jerk reaction of anticipation and for that I apologize, both to you and to rjb.

I do think that neither he, or others who follow this thread, wish to see it dissolve in the partisan bickering that has overtaken so many of the other political threads.

As for your frustration, the situation we find ourselves in this election cycle isn't all that unusual. I'd have to check back, but I think there have only been two elections in recent history where the president's party hasn't seen significant Congressional losses -- perhaps even a change of the majority.

Remember, too, that it was less than 2 years ago when 52% of Americans were widely viewed as a most wise and loving electorate.

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@Irishk,

Quote:

Remember, too, that it was less than 2 years ago when 52% of Americans were widely viewed as a most wise and loving electorate.

If you want to keep partisan bickering out of the thread, start by refraining from making snide comments yourself, I would suggest.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Wasn't at all intended to be snide. I was remembering back to the various headlines, "America finally gets it right", etc. I've managed to post on most of the 22 pages here without partisan sentiments, mainly because of rjb's request, and also because I don't feel it belongs here.

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Updated analysis on the House from ElectionProjection swings their prediction back to favoring Democratic control:

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Rating change: GOP gains one more, but Dems gain one and reclaim another

Yesterday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released several internal polls from battleground districts around the country. As one might expect, the results were very favorable for Democratic candidates running in those districts. So favorable, in fact, that even after applying the partisan House poll adjustment, two seats move from red to blue in today's update. New York CD-24, Michael Arcuri's seat, changed from Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold, and Mark Steven Kirk's open seat in Illinios CD-10 went from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain, giving the Democrats a third projected takeover in this heavily Republican year.

Countering those polls were twenty race rating changes from Stuart Rothenberg. All twenty favored the Republicans. As a result of Rothernberg's downgrade of Steve Kagen chances in Wisconsin's 8th district, Republicans are now projected to take that seat. The race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain. Incorporating these developments into the overall House projection brings the new projected balance of power to 218 Democrats and 217 Republicans. After just a couple days as the party in control, the GOP relinquishes their projected House majority today.

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@Irishk,

Quote:

Remember, too, that it was less than 2 years ago when 52% of Americans were widely viewed as a most wise and loving electorate.

Like so much in politics, it didn't last long.

I guess I thought it would be different as so much went wrong so disastrouslyunder republican leadership. I just don't see why voters want to go back to it. But never mind, sorry for both the tone and the interruption.

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@revelette,

Well, it's not over yet. I've seen the American electorate described as fickle and temperamental on many occasions and I guess we do pretty much live up to that criticism. But, if you look on the bright side (assuming one or both Houses switches hands this November) the GOP will have but a scant 2 years to deliver the goods or they, too, will be skewered and just in time for the 2012 presidential election!

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@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

Well, it's not over yet. I've seen the American electorate described as fickle and temperamental on many occasions and I guess we do pretty much live up to that criticism. But, if you look on the bright side (assuming one or both Houses switches hands this November) the GOP will have but a scant 2 years to deliver the goods or they, too, will be skewered and just in time for the 2012 presidential election!

I still believe that the Dems will hold both houses. The lack of a cohesive narrative, combined with the crazy candidates that the Tea Party put forth in several states, is going to hurt them.

I also am somewhat buoyed by the fact that polling consistently shows that the American public still blames Republicans for the crisis we are in and still thinks that their ideas are the wrong ones for the country on several issues.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Irishk,

You don't read your links (on 100K sim runs) apparently - either that or you neither know nor care who pays for computer running time:

Quote:

On average, over its 100,000 simulation runs, the model projected Democrats with 52.1 seats in the new Senate, and the Republicans 47.5. The totals do not add up to 100 seats because Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent in Florida, still has a reasonable chance of victory.

PS here is your own link again, from above post(s) of yours:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/republicans-have-one-in-four-chance-to-claim-senate-majority-model-shows/

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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