Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

After holding small leads in PPP's first two Ohio polls of 2010 John Kasich has opened up a 50-40 advantage in his bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland.

The race has pretty much shaped up as a referendum on Strickland and that is not to the incumbent's advantage. Only 34% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing while 52% disapprove. Republicans are now almost universal in their disapproval of him at 83% while Democrats are a little more divided in their support of his work at 67%. Independents go against him by a 59/26 margin as well.

Ohioans are decidedly ambivalent when it comes to their feelings about Kasich himself. 33% see him favorably, 33% see him unfavorably, and 33% have no opinion. Republicans are pretty positive toward him (62/10) while Democrats are almost equally negative (7/58) and independents are split nearly right down the middle (31/29). Voters in the state don't have any particular affection for Kasich, but this election isn't really about Kasich. It's about Barack Obama and Ted Strickland and not being them is enough to have Kasich in a very strong position to win in November.

Kasich leads 44-33 with independents and is pulling 89% of the Republican vote while only 78% of Democrats are committed to Strickland at this point. Those numbers with GOP voters are one of the major developments in the race since PPP polled in late June. At that point Kasich was up only 73-12 with voters in his party but Strickland has lost almost all of his crossover support since that time and it's now an 89-5 advantage for Kasich there.

Strickland's other big issue is one Democrats everywhere are having to deal with: diminished interest from the party base. Barack Obama won Ohio by 4 points in 2008 but those planning to turn out and vote this year say they went for John McCain by a 3 point margin. Between Strickland's unpopularity and the enthusiasm gap this is now looking like a very tough office for Democrats to hold.

Democratic Governor Ted Strickland still trails his Republican challenger, John Kasich, by eight points in his bid for reelection in Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Kasich picking up 47% support while Strickland draws the vote from 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer another candidate in the race while another seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The Spratt/Mulvaney race is in the SC-5th which is N and NE of Columbia. If you have driven I-95 towards the NC border you might note that it is a region of not very fertile land.
The only poll on that race was in January and had the incumbent Spratt ahead comfortably.

WASHINGTON -- Is the tea party the new Republican Party? The grass-roots network of fed-up conservative-libertarian voters displayed its power in its biggest triumph of the election year: the toppling of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska's GOP primary. Political novice Joe Miller is the fifth tea party insurgent to win a GOP Senate nominating contest, an upset that few, if any, saw coming.

With the stunning outcome, the fledgling tea party coalition and voters who identify with its anti-tax, anti-spending sentiments proved that democracy is alive and well - within the Republican Party. Don't like who is representing you? Rise up, fire them and choose someone new.

The tea party has taken hold in the Grand Old Party, unseating lawmakers, capturing nominations for open seats and forcing Republicans to recalibrate both their campaign strategy and issues agenda. Out is talk of delivering federal dollars back home; in is talk of fiscal discipline.

Within minutes of Murkowski conceding late Tuesday night, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., was among the conservative Republicans cheering Miller.

"He pulled off the upset victory of the year because he ran on principles and because Alaskans, like all Americans, want to stop the massive spending, bailouts and debt that are bankrupting our country," said DeMint.

Taking a shot at Murkowski if not the entire Republican establishment, he added: "Joe Miller's victory should be a wake-up call to politicians who go to Washington to bring home the bacon. Voters are saying 'We're not willing to bankrupt the country to benefit ourselves.'"

OMG, what a hangover we have from binge drinking at the open bar last night.

The Gallup generic ballot has provided plenty of fodder with election analysts this summer. No clearer was the importance of the Gallup generic ballot to the news cycle than it was on Monday when Gallup showed a 10% Republican advantage. As noted, a 10% Republican lead on Gallup's generic ballot is unprecedented, and it will likely get worse once Gallup switches over to a likely voter model. Congressmen and political analysts alike have mentioned that Republicans could possibly do 4% better on a likely voter model. Upon further examination, however, I think it could be worse for Democrats. Why? History.

By Eugene Robinson
Friday, September 3, 2010

According to polls, Americans are in a mood to hold their breath until they turn blue. Voters appear to be so fed up with the Democrats that they're ready to toss them out in favor of the Republicans -- for whom, according to those same polls, the nation has even greater contempt. This isn't an "electoral wave," it's a temper tantrum.

It's bad enough that the Democratic Party's "favorable" rating has fallen to an abysmal 33 percent, according to a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. It's worse that the Republican Party's favorably has plunged to just 24 percent. But incredibly, according to Gallup, registered voters say they intend to vote for Republicans over Democrats by an astounding 10-point margin. Respected analysts reckon that the GOP has a chance of gaining 45 to 60 seats in the House, which would bring Minority Leader John Boehner into the speaker's office.

My guess is that with a decided advantage in campaign funds, along with the other advantages of incumbency, Democrats will be able to mitigate these prospective losses -- perhaps even relieving Nancy Pelosi of the hassles of moving. But there's no mistaking the public mood, and the truth is that it makes no sense

G.O.P. Poised to Control 30 Governor Seats

Republicans are on track to control approximately 30 governor seats after the Nov. 2 election, according to the FiveThirtyEight gubernatorial forecasting model. And they are likely to do particularly well in the swing states of the Midwest.

Such an outcome would reverse the current state of the nation’s governors’ mansions, which are now held by 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent.

[...]

Should the political momentum favor the Republicans this year, as seems likely, they have picked an auspicious time for it. This year’s gubernatorial elections are unusually important because of the role that some governors play in redistricting, the process of dividing the nation into 435 Congressional districts that occurs after each Census. Redistricting is often a contentious process, but it is especially so in states that are bound to lose seats in Congress. The result can resemble a game of musical chairs, with too many incumbents vying for fewer districts. Among the states expected to lose seats are Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania – all states where the Republican nominee has emerged as a clear favorite.