Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

(P)erhaps I should revise the latter part.

This doesn’t look or feel like a normal midterm election. "There are two kinds of elections," he said. "There’s sort of the Tip O’Neill all-politics-is-local, and then there are wave elections. We’re seeing just every sign in the world that this is going to be a wave, and a pretty good-sized wave."

On the other hand, Democrats might figure out how to do a better job convincing the nation of the wisdom of their policies. The apparent return of General Motors to health after President Barack Obama’s bailout might help. Mr. Obama, who, despite his problems, remains far more popular than his party’s congressional leaders, stands the best chance of making that case.

And Democrats’ money advantage, which Mr. Obama was working to enhance this week with a fund-raising tour, will help in the stretch run.

Above all, Democrats might finally get their base more excited.

I hate to come across as a p*ick. But...

I wonder if Cyclo is sticking to his emphatic forecast that the Democrats will retain control of the House of representatives?

My forecast was that the Republicans would take the House, but probably not the Senate. perhaps I should revise the latter part.

Among likely voters, Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer are even at 34 percent support each. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner received 13 percent support.

A fifth of likely voters are undecided. Defections of both Democrats and Republicans from their party's candidates and splits among key voting groups also contribute to the tight race.

Republican Pat Toomey has opened a 10-point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak among likely voters in a Senate race in Pennsylvania dominated by economic worries, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

Toomey, a conservative former congressman, leads Sestak, a retired admiral elected to Congress in 2006, by 47 percent to 37 percent barely two months before the November 2 election to replace Democrat Arlen Specter.

Republican Pat Toomey continues to hold a modest lead over his Democratic Challenger, Joe Sestak, in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Toomey earning 45% of the vote, while Sestak earns 39% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are not sure.

Bush: 50
Obama: 42

We'll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there's one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they'd rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

Independents hold that view by a 44-37 margin and there are more Democrats who would take Bush back (11%) than there are Republicans who think Obama's preferable (3%.)

A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it's probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.

There's not much doubt things are getting worse for Democrats...and they were already pretty bad. Somehow the party base needs to get reinvigorated over the next two months or there's going to be a very, very steep price to pay.

We'll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there's one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they'd rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

IYes, I am standing by that prediction. Why would I change it now? Because the generic ballot shows a larger lead for Republicans a few months before the elections?

Do you think that's wise?

Cycloptichorn

I couldn't get the Rollins' interview to work either. It could be because I use Mozilla vs Internet Explorer.

WEST ALLIS, Wis. — Senator Russ Feingold says he should not be considered the front-runner in his bid for a fourth term. If that self-appraisal is true, Democrats face a greater risk of losing their majority in the Senate than they believed when summer began.

“Frankly, I love being the underdog,” Mr. Feingold said. “Let me have it.”

As the senator talks to voters across Wisconsin, that description is perhaps an exaggeration for an incumbent with a national reputation, but it has become a central part of his pitch. He is not eager to concede that control of the Senate could hinge on his seat — though it very well could — but he hopes the warning cry will prompt his loyal Democratic followers to rally to his side in a challenging election year.

“Clearly if somehow I lost, it would be a sign that we’re getting close to the line,” Mr. Feingold said in an interview on a recent day of campaigning. “We won’t lose, but it is something that is legitimate for me to mention — this seat could determine things.”

As his predicament suggests, Republicans have a better opportunity to win back the Senate than they had once imagined.

ANCHORAGE — Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska conceded late Tuesday in her Republican primary race against Joe Miller, a lawyer from Fairbanks who was backed by Tea Party activists, Sarah Palin and other conservatives.

Mr. Miller shocked the political establishment here and in Washington last week when he emerged with a narrow lead, 1,668 votes, after the primary vote, on Aug. 24. His victory makes him the presumed favorite to win the Senate seat from this heavily Republican state.

Mr. Miller, who has proposed drastic cuts in federal spending, had trailed badly in local polls in the weeks before the election but benefited from a last-minute flood of advertisements, mailings and automated calls casting Ms. Murkowski as a Democrat in disguise. An abortion-related ballot measure also brought conservatives to the polls.

“Now is the time for all Alaskans to come together and reach out with our core message of taking power from the federal government and bringing it back home to the people,” Mr. Miller said in a written statement. “ If we continue to allow the federal government to live beyond its means, we will all soon have to live below ours.”

ALASKA SENATE - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (8/25) -
Oh my. This is going to very close. The mere fact that it is so close is already a big story.
With 97.9% of the districts counted:
Joe Miller - lawyer and newcomer to politics - 45909 (51.09%)
Lisa Murkowski - incumbent - 43949 (48.91%)
........

Campbell's forecast, to be presented this week at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Washington, D.C., is based on what he calls the "seats-in-trouble model." This forecasting equation factors in the president's approval rating and the degree to which one political party is in danger of losing seats in the election, as estimated by the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can't count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney.

It's not that Alaska Republicans don't like Palin- a majority of them still do. But there's a significant disconnect between GOP voters in the state liking Palin and thinking she should run for President, a divide we've seen with Republicans nationally and one that presents the biggest threat to a possible Palin candidacy. Even among voters with a favorable opinion of Palin in the state just 39% think she should launch a 2012 bid.

Romney gets 20% to 17% for Palin and Huckabee, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul. Among Republicans with a favorable opinion of Palin she pulls only 30% and not surprisingly she gets just 3% with ones who don't like her.

Among voters who say they support the goals of the Tea Party only 31% want Palin to run and even with ones who consider themselves to be active members of the Tea Party there are still only 42% who think she should make the leap.

The basic findings of this poll are the same we see everywhere- Republicans like Sarah Palin. They just don't want her to be President. And that holds true even in her home state.