The New York Democratic party primary is on the 13th of September.
I already have had Reshma Saujani canvas our neighborhood a couple of months or so back and she showed up at my door asking me if I was interested in signing her onto the primary ballot.
I listened to her and Carolyn Maloney, our incumbent congressperson in my district. She's been my congressperson ever since I've moved here to NYC.
I've met her once at some kind of strange and surreal healthcare protest practice outside her Queens borough office.
I'm struggling against the decision to continue on with Maloney as she's been an effective member of congress and the desire to get a fresh start with Reshma Saujani.
Yesterday, I heard the two on the Brian Lehrer show that might keep me with Maloney. Wall Street seems to favor Saujani as many individuals from the banking industry have given her some very large and noticeable political donations this year so she can unseat the incumbent Maloney.
I'll wait to see who NY Times endorses and why. Hopefully there's enough time for a televised or radio debate between these two so they can define their differences in that kind of forum.
Thanks, Tsar, for your report on the NY 14th District which covers a part of Manhattan. A win in the Dem primary is tantamount to a victory in November. Is that correct?
@realjohnboy,
That is most likely correct. Whomever wins the Democratic primary pretty much gets the congressional seat.
Unless some kind of hideous skeleton falls out of the closet this election year... even then I doubt a Democrat can lose this district.
@roger,
roger wrote:Yeah, in a close race, their endorsement just might hold a couple of vital conservatives.
Anyhow, NRA is a single issue organization. Vote their way and you get a good grade or an endorsement. This might be seen as a broken contract. Not suggesting that anyone in congress would be swayed by hopes of reelection, of course.
Although, technically there was never a formal endorsement (this election cycle) by the NRA, but rather a rumor that they were considering endorsing Reid based on his gun-rights record. I have no way of substantiating it, but I would guess this latest decision involves some bowing to pressure from the membership. Reid has been known to change his mind in the past (immigrant birth-right issue, for instance), so maybe there was at least some level of distrust among the dues-paying members, despite the NRA's granting him high marks for their single-issue viewpoint.
CALIFORNIA SENATE (8/26 or so)-
Rasmussen, RCP and probably others are listing this race between Barbara Boxer (D) and Carly Fiorina (R) as a tossup.
What caught my eye was a SurveyUSA poll on 8/12 giving Fiorina a 47% to 42% lead. A Rasmussen poll on 8/24 had Boxer up 44% to 43%. Both were of LV.
I mentioned before that Rasmussen is now using a follow-up question of Undecideds asking which way they are leaning. Including the Leaners he comes up with Boxer at 49% vs Fiorina at 44%.
All of the polling has a MOE of 4% .
37% of those polled by Rasmussen have a very unfavorable opinion of Boxer vs 24% for Fiorina.
He has 67% of those polled in CA as saying the economy is Poor and 51% as saying it is Getting Worse.
Obama carried CA with 53% and he has an Approval rating of 55% which strikes me as quite high.
I can understand the Toss Up thing, but given the makeup of the electorate in CA, I think Boxer will win. But I am certainly hesitant about putting it firmly in the Leans Dem column.
It would be a huge win for the Repubs if they can pull it off.
@Irishk,
Irishk wrote:
Thanks, High Seas. If you'll scroll up just a bit, you'll see I posted that info as an introduction to the discussion.
You're right - sorry I missed that post. NRA endorsements will make no difference if the economy doesn't improve - soon. Article from The Onion summarizes our economic problems better than endless articles by Krugman and assorted Keynesians on new stimulus package and liquidity trap:
Quote:link
http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economy-grinds-to-halt-as-nation-realizes-money,2912/
".....said Bernanke, who then paused for a moment, looked down at his prepared statement, and shook his head in utter disbelief. "You know what? It doesn't matter. None of this—this so-called 'money'—really matters at all."
"It's just an illusion," a wide-eyed Bernanke added as he removed bills from his wallet and slowly spread them out before him. "Just look at it: Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Worthless.".......Finance Committee members sat in thunderstruck silence for several moments until Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) finally shouted out, "Oh my God, he's right. It's all a mirage. All of it—the money, our whole economy—it's all a lie!"
U.S. SENATE (end of August)-
Just to summarize a bit as the election cycle really gets revved up in September.
The current make up of the Senate is 59 Dems* and 41 Repubs.
*Includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems.
RCP (a poll of polls) has the split now at 48 Dems, 44 Repubs & 8 Toss-ups.
The 8 Toss-ups are: CA (currently D), CO (D), FL (open), IL (D), NV (D),
OH (R), WA (D) and WI (D).
With no Toss-ups, RCP projects that the Dems will end up with 52 vs 48 for the Repubs.
Rasmussen sees it as, at the moment, 49 Dems, 46 Repubs and 5 Toss-Ups. He has FL and OH as leaning Repub and WA as leaning Dem.
Larry Sabato says that, if the election were to be held today, it would end up with the Dems being at 52 vs 48 for the Repubs. He alone has PA as being a tossup.
I have it as 53-47.
@realjohnboy,
For reasons unrelated to this website I get to talk to Ed Rollins occasionally and have enormous respect for his political nous. From his CNN link:
Quote:
The Tea Party now has beaten the establishment candidate in Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Kentucky, Colorado and Connecticut. Assuming they are going to win some or maybe all of those seats in November, they begin as real power brokers....With self-funded candidates and angry voters, anything can happen -- and we're not even to Labor Day yet. We self described "experts" should just keep our opinions to ourselves and let the voters make their choices.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/08/25/rollins.political.earthquake/index.html
@High Seas,
I think Rollins is a capable and likeably guy. I heard a talk of his about a year after Clinton took office (you may recall that Rollins did a stint advising Ross Perot in the 3rd party effort that cost Bush I the election). What he said was in response to a question about what working for Perot was like. His answer was. "well sometiomes Ross wasn't the overbearing asshole he usually was."
@georgeob1,
Diplomacy isn't his strongest suit - I recently asked him if he would revise his interview on the Gerrymandering movie >
http://www.gerrymanderingmovie.com/content.php?section=film&page=interviews
> in view of the rise of the Tea Party. His answer is summarized in the excerpt I just posted but was even more direct in person.
@High Seas,
I didn't find any interview, but I too found him direct and to the point in his remarks. Nothing wrong with that.
@georgeob1,
That's odd - if the link opens on your screen, scroll down to his name. If it doesn't, start on the main link for Gerrymandering >
http://www.gerrymanderingmovie.com/index.php
> then click on the first link, The Film >
http://www.gerrymanderingmovie.com/content.php?section=film&page=about
> then finally on "interviews" - that was the link I posted originally. You may need to download a plugin to view the video itself.
@roger,
roger wrote:
I think at this time and place, they have decided that it is, in fact a tax. For some reason, the wind seems to have shifted on that particular point.
You would have known all along that it was a tax if you had been getting your business and economics news at the most reliable source: The Onion. You know we're in deep trouble when their forecasts turn out to be on target more often than anyone else's, private or public.
Quote:
Boeing Lays Off Only Guy Who Knows How To Keep Wings On Plane
CHICAGO—With the airline industry continuing to suffer under the ongoing recession, the Boeing Company was forced Monday to lay off Al Freedman, the only guy left at the corporation who knows how to keep wings from falling off planes. "We used to have a whole team of engineers who knew how to make the wings stay on, but those days are long gone," Boeing CEO James McNerney, Jr. said. "We'll make it work, though. The wings are not necessarily the most important part of the plane, anyway." McNerney added that at least they were able to save the job of the guy who knows how to prevent jet engines from exploding.
@High Seas,
I did not need The Onion to recognize a tax when I saw it. Possibly the administration and congress did. I was pointing out the shifting position depending on whether the bill was pending passage, or up for legal passage.
At one time or another, I also pointed out the variable amount of savings that would come from the Medicare system. Pitch the bill to the young crowd and 500 billion would be saved, but when it was presented to the older population the amount was only 342 billion.
But we wander from the topic
I couldn't get the Rollins' interview to work either. It could be because I use Mozilla vs Internet Explorer. Whatever.
Back to the dreary numbers that have so far kept this thread from getting overrun by people screaming at each other.
WEST VIRGINIA SENATE (8/30):
This is more than a bit of a shock. Senator forever Robert Byrd died in June (I think) with 2 years left in his term. WV law was murky about when a special election would be held. That was sorted out and the race is now set for Nov 2nd. The assumption was that the Dem would easily win.
But the Rasmussen poll out today (500 LV) has:
Governor Joe Manchin (D) - 48%
Businessman John Raese (R) - 42%
Manchin, when he needed to appoint someone to fill Byrd's seat, would have liked to appoint himself. But that would have appeared unseemly. He appointed someone to keep the seat warm until the election. At that time Manchin held a lead over Raese by 51% to 35%.
Rasmussen has now moved WV from Strong Dem to Leans Dem.
29% of those polled have an Approve opinion on President Obama vs 70% who Disapprove. That is way worse than he fares nationally.
The WV economy relies to a great extent on mining and agriculture and has not suffered as badly as many other places.
But the WV pollees indicate that just 4% believe the economy is good or better while 65% rate it as poor.
And 16% think the economy is getting better vs 64% feel it is getting worse.
The Dems, including those on the national level, may have to devote more resources to this seat than they ever expected.
@Irishk,
Thanks for the links. I must admit that I have never paid much heed to Generic Ballots. I guess I believe in the theory that "all politics is local." But, in reading the articles, there does seem to be a correlation, historically.
I would agree that the Dems are more then a bit lacking in enthusiasm while the Repubs are energized. It remains to be seen whether the Repubs can all be pulling in the same direction.
Thanks for your continued interest!
@realjohnboy,
Have to admit my own interest in the generic is only recent...going back to this past February when I read the analysis of that Dartmouth kid and his forecast of a
Republican Blizzard based solely on his research. Now I just want to keep tracking it through the election to see if he's right.
@realjohnboy,
Quote:It remains to be seen whether the Repubs can all be pulling in the same direction.
that seems to be the big question.
@dyslexia,
Quote:that seems to be the big question.
no it is not, we already know the answer is no. The GOP might have the idea that they can impose another Tom Delay type as "the Hammer" to keep everyone in line, but that just ain't going to work now. It will provoke resistance with-in the party. I am guessing that GOP leadership will be smart enough to no go to great lengths to impose party discipline this time around, and I am sure that if they try they will fail.
