By the way, there is an interesting development in Washington regarding primaries. As I understand it (while it doesn't affect the Senate race) open primaries would be held on the same day, with Repubs, Dems and Indies all on the same ballot. The 2 candidates, regardless of affiliation, would advance to the general election. So you could end up with 2 Dems etc.
Does anyone know anything about that? NPR had a brief story on that this evening but I got distracted and it is not yet available in their archive.
New PPP poll out today shows Republican Pat Toomey with a 9 point lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_817.pdf
Rasmussen is also polling this race today -- same results.
PPP also polling Illinois today:
Quote:Despite moving to a likely-voter model that shows an Illinois electorate less favorable to him than to Mark Kirk and much less favorable to favorite son President Obama, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias now leads Kirk for Obama’s Senate seat, 37% to 35%, similar to the 31-30 margin in PPP’s last poll of the race in June. Giannoulias has treaded water, despite Kirk gaining favor among independents, partially because Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones’ support has dwindled from 14% to 9% overall, and from 15% to 8% among Democrats.
[...]
“Illinoisans who plan to vote in November don’t view Alexi Giannoulias or Roland Burris or even Barack Obama very positively, but they’re still barely willing to give Giannoulias the nod to keep the Obama-Burris seat because he’s a Democrat in a Democratic state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_817.pdf
SurveyUSA has the first Senate poll for the 2010 general election showing Republican Dino Rossi is actually ahead of Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, 52% to 45%.
Quote:“The race may tighten, which is what we might expect, but I do think that we can say going in as this first poll shows, is that this is not a layup for re-election and that there’s a real fight here,” said Jay Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA.
Last Rasmussen poll: Murray 48, Rossi 44
Thanks, Irishk. I have been involved with other stuff this week. Here is more on the...
WASHINTON SENATE (+/- Aug 19th):
Survey USA- Dino Rossi (R) (twice a candidate for Governor) ... 52%
...................... Patty Murray (D) (seeking 4th 6-year term) ... 45%
Rasmussen- Murray ... 48%
................... Rossi ... 44%
................... Undecided ... 4%
................... Other ... 4%
Both polls are of Likely Voters and the margin of error is 4%, so statistically we see a dead heat. Rasmussen has, with its poll, now begun asking people who say they are undecided a followup question: which way are you leaning at this point? Adjusting for that:
Murray ... 50%
Rossi ... 46%
Other ... 4%
After Labor Day (September 6th), all Rasmussen polls will be reported after taking in the Leaners.
The primary in WA was August 17th. I mentioned before that it is a unique process. All of the candidates are listed on one ballot, regardless of party affiliation. The top 2 candidates move on to the general election on November 2nd.
Here was the outcome:
Murray (D) ... 46%
Rossi (R) ... 34%
Clint Didier (R) (the Tea Party endorsed candidate) (R) ... 13%
Paul Akers (R) ... 3%
Total Votes For Republicans ... 50%
Akers quickly endorsed Rossi, but Didier is not going quietly. He has demanded that, if Rossi wants his support, he must come out strongly ...
> against abortion;
> against any new taxes;
> against any bill that comes before the Senate that results in an increase in federal spending. (I think that should read "against any bill that increases the deficit," but I am quoting an article I read. Perhaps I am nitpicking.)
Rossi has so far declined to accept Didier's demands.
I think it may be a tempest in a tea pot. I can't imagine Didier's supporters staying home on election day.
I believe that RCP has put this in the Toss Up category. I may be wrong. Rasmussen still has it as Leans Democrat. That is where I have it, also.
Murray has the power of incumbency. Obama easily carried WA in 2008 and he still enjoys a positive approval rating according to Rasmussen despite have a negative approval rating nationally.
@realjohnboy,
Nate Silver has WA in the toss-up column.
Also, he'll be updating his analysis and predictions on the House races (maybe Senate, too?) in the next few days. In the meantime, he's had some good posts (and back and forth with Pollster.com) on the generic ballot forecasting House results.
Gotta hate the trend if you are a Democrat
Quote:Below are the 25 most recent race ratings updates from The Cook Political Report.
•GEORGIA | Senate: Likely Republican to Solid Republican (8/19/10)
•TENNESSEE | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10)
•SOUTH DAKOTA | District AL: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•PENNSYLVANIA | District 10: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10)
•PENNSYLVANIA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•OHIO | District 16: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•ILLINOIS | District 11: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•IOWA | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•GEORGIA | District 8: Likely Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•FLORIDA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/17/10)
•CALIFORNIA | District 47: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (8/17/10)
•NEW YORK | District 29: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (8/12/10)
•FLORIDA | District 25: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (8/12/10)
•ARKANSAS | District 2: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (8/12/10)
•COLORADO | Governor: Toss Up to Likely Democrat (8/12/10)
•WISCONSIN | Senate: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (8/05/10)
•SOUTH CAROLINA | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (7/22/10)
•PENNSYLVANIA | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (7/22/10)
•NORTH CAROLINA | District 7: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (7/22/10)
•NEW YORK | District 20: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (7/22/10)
•NEW JERSEY | District 6: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (7/22/10)
•KENTUCKY | District 6: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (7/22/10)
•INDIANA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (7/22/10)
•ILLINOIS | District 17: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (7/22/10)
http://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings_updates
Florida Senate Preview
Kendrick Meek is headed for a big win in tomorrow's Democratic primary in Florida but the real winner from the night's results might be Marco Rubio.
In the general election Senate numbers we'll release tomorrow Charlie Crist has a 24 point lead over Jeff Greene with Democrats. But he trails Kendrick Meek by a point with them. It's hard to see a path to victory for Crist without winning the Democratic vote.
The last time we polled the race Crist had a 9 point lead over Meek with Democrats, but Meek's primary campaign has had the impact of increasing his support for the general election within his own party.
Stay tuned for those numbers tomorrow.
@Irishk,
I would be stunned if Meek lost to Greene, despite the money Greene has poured into his campaign. He is perceived (I believe) as a carpetbagger from CA who only moved to FL 2 years ago. He was briefly a Repub (running for Congress in CA) and he made his fortune betting that the housing market would collapse.
Meek is certainly not without sin.
Crist would fare better with Meek out and Greene in. But I would still put this race: Rubio/Crist/Meek very much in the toss up category.
@realjohnboy,
Didn't the president go down and campaign for Meek? That may be when he got a bump up, as well, although I think Crist would caucus with whichever party gets the power.
Intrade has Rubio up by 6 points over Crist, but their numbers won't stabilize until much closer to the election.
ALASKA SENATE - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (8/25) -
Oh my. This is going to very close. The mere fact that it is so close is already a big story.
With 97.9% of the districts counted:
Joe Miller - lawyer and newcomer to politics - 45909 (51.09%)
Lisa Murkowski - incumbent - 43949 (48.91%)
difference - 1960
The remaining districts are largely in rural areas which could favor the better known incumbent. But there are very few votes in play there.
More important will be the absentee ballots. There were 16000 requests to vote absentee with some 7600 returned so far. The deadline to receive more and the time to count them will cause this primary to drag out to the Labor Day weekend, perhaps. Many votes in AZ are done by hand so there could also be an issue with challenged ballots.
Sarah Palin strongly endorsed Miller as did one-time Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee. In addition, the Tea Party movement spent $600K on advertising. That is a lot of money in a state where tv ad time is cheap compared to a bigger market.
Also on the ballot was Prop 2 which would require parents of children 17 and under to be notified before the girl received an abortion. Miller and Murkowski both supported it but Miller has been much more vocal than Murkowski in his pro-life stance.
The winner of the Republican primary can count on an easy win in the general election.
Nate Silver posted from his new home at the New York Times for the first time today...with an update on Senate races.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/#more-179
On that Alaska Senate race...I read that Murkowski might be contemplating running as a Libertarian. She's too late, registration-wise, to run as an Independent and there's already a Libertarian candidate, but if she can talk him down...well, that would complicate things for Miller (who Larry Sabato says has won, regardless of the absentee ballots).
@Irishk,
Surprising they would go back on that policy.
@roger,
Can you see it making a difference in the election, though? I can't see them endorsing Sharron Angle...most likely they'll sit on the sidelines in Nevada...choosing the "None of the Above" option that's on the NV ballot.
@Irishk,
Irishk wrote:
... can't see them endorsing Sharron Angle...most likely they'll sit on the sidelines in Nevada...choosing the "None of the Above" option ..
Why speculate when it's easy to look up the NRA endorsements so far in Nevada?
Quote:After careful consideration, the NRA-PVF announced today that it will not be endorsing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for re-election in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Nevada.
NRA members and other interested parties are encouraged to visit
www.NRAPVF.org for more information as Election Day draws near.
@High Seas,
Thanks, High Seas. If you'll scroll up just a bit, you'll see I posted that info as an introduction to the discussion.
@Cycloptichorn,
How did you feel about the Democratic arithmetic in forecastingthe costs of their new health care legislation? Then there was the little matter of their "forgetting" to include the $16Billion/year doubling of the IRS required to enforce their "non tax" penalties for not buying insurance. How'do'ya like them chops?
@Irishk,
Yeah, in a close race, their endorsement just might hold a couple of vital conservatives.
Anyhow, NRA is a single issue organization. Vote their way and you get a good grade or an endorsement. This might be seen as a broken contract. Not suggesting that anyone in congress would be swayed by hopes of reelection, of course.
@georgeob1,
I think at this time and place, they have decided that it is, in fact a tax. For some reason, the wind seems to have shifted on that particular point.
