Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

ILLINOIS SENATE (7/28):
Rasmussen still shows this as being a dead heat. Alex Giannoulias (D), the State Treasurer, leads Mark Kirk (R), a member of the House, by 43% to 41%. 6% favor some other candidate and 10% are unsure.
Each candidate has lead at some point in earlier polls going back to March. Both candidates have had ethics issues which have had an impact at some time.
31% say that Giannoulias is less ethical than the "typical" politician and 25% view him Very Unfavorably. For Kirk, the numbers are better: 21% and 14% respectively.
Rasmussen, RCP and Larry Sabato from UVA list this race as a Toss Up. This seat was once held by Obama, so a Repub win would be a takeover.
I would put it in the Leans Dem column. Obama carried IL in 2008 by a 62-37% margin and he still has an approval rating of 55% to 43% which is much better than how he fares nationally. Obama will be campaigning for Giannoulias later in the Fall.

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SENATE BALANCE OF POWER RECAP - END OF AUGUST:
The Democrats control 59 Senate seats to 41 held by Republicans.
Here is how Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics and Larry Sabato have it -

.......................... Rasmussen ................ RCP ................... Sabato ...........
Democrats ............... 50 ........................ 49 ........................ 48 ..............
Republicans ............. 44 ........................ 42 ........................ 46 .............
Toss-Ups.................. 6 ........................... 9 ......................... 6 ...............

California (currently held by a Dem): Sabato has as a Tossup
Colorado (D): All 3 have as a Tossup
Florida (R): All have as a Tossup
Illinois (D): All have as a Tossup
Missouri (R): Rasmussen and RCP have as a Tossup
Nevada (D): Sabato and RCP have as a Tossup
Ohio (R): Sabato and RCP have as a Tossup
Pennsylvania (D): RCP has a Tossup
Washington (D): Rasmussen and RCP have as a Tossup
Wisconsin (D): Rasmussen and RCP have as a Tossup

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@realjohnboy,

Hey RJB, just got this from WSJ's opinion journal guy John Fund: GOP Senator John Thune of South Dakota may be a Dark Horse in the 2012's--we shall see--but it wouldn't hurt for us to look at his bona fides. Fund's article is here. Text follows:

Quote:

He is best known for being the man who retired Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, but GOP Senator John Thune of South Dakota is now striving for some policy and political visibility. He's just made a sweeping proposal to reform the clearly broken Congressional budget process.

Last year, Mr. Thune became head of the Republican Policy Committee, a leadership post that puts him in charge of generating the party's position on key issues. He's also being talked about as a dark horse presidential candidate by Republican strategists who aren't enamored by any of the likely 2012 contenders.

While he has a low national profile, he does have some assets: name ID in the parts of the first caucus state of Iowa that get neighboring South Dakota media, a $6.9 million bank account he could use for a presidential run, and a national fundraising list of 100,000 names from his race against Mr. Daschle.

Mr. Thune is also trying to show his policy chops with a plan that would create a joint House-Senate panel on cutting government spending, call for a line-item veto and require a 10% cut in the deficit every year until the budget is balanced.

Democrats are sufficiently worried about Mr. Thune that this week they privately chastised one of their key operatives for talking him up. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, the Democratic National Committee's executive director, told the Netroots Nation convention of liberal bloggers in Las Vegas that Mr. Thune would be political trouble for Barack Obama.

"This is personal, but John Thune is somebody that I have nightmares about," Ms. O'Malley Dillon told the bloggers. "I've worked for (Senators) Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle, and he is just a guy you can't ever count out. He has his head down and is doing some policy stuff. [You've] just got to start looking at him."

Senate Republicans also believe that Mr. Thune can overcome the burden of being perceived as a Beltway Republican because he is a fresh face with roots in the Heartland.

"I'm worried about the slate of candidates likely to run," a GOP Senator told Poltico.com this week. "It's hard to see any of them giving Obama a real challenge. But John could do that."

Later,

JM

1 Reply

@JamesMorrison,

Quote:

Mr. Thune is also trying to show his policy chops with a plan that would create a joint House-Senate panel on cutting government spending, call for a line-item veto and require a 10% cut in the deficit every year until the budget is balanced.

I would worry more about Thune if he actually understood the math behind his own policy proposals; but his recent TV appearances have made it perfectly clear that he does not.

As for his 10% cut in the deficit every year, he claimed that this would lead to a balanced budget... in ten years. Rolling Eyes

I usually expect a presidential candidate to know what a diminishing return is, before I grant them 'policy chops.'

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

Thanks for the info on Thune, JM. I will put that little nugget in my file for possible future reference.

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The Senate Balance of Power post above should say, of course, end of July.

NEVADA SENATE - 7/28
Rasmussen in his latest poll has Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) leading former assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) by 45% to 43%. 7% prefer someone else and 4% are not sure. In earlier Rasmussen polls, Angle was up 11 (6/9), 7 (6/22) and 3 (7/12).
What I find amazing is how polarized those polled are. 48% say they have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Reid; 55% Somewhat Unfavorable.
Angle fares no better. Very Unfavorable: 41%; Somewhat Unfavorable: 56%.
Angle, a Christian conservative with Tea Party support and a proponent of the state's immigration law, seems unable to gain any momentum.
Rasmussen has moved this from Toss Up to Leans Dem. RCP has Reid up by 1.6 and, along with Larry Sabato, still lists it as a toss up. I have it as a hold for the Dems. But I am not at all sure about that outcome due to the immigration law and how that plays out during the rest of the campaign.

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WASHINGTON SENATE - 7/30
Rasmussen has the incumbent, Patty Murray (D), garnering support from 49% of those polled. The 3 Repubs in the race for the nomination trail by a bit. Dino Rossi, twice a candidate for Gov, comes in at 47% vs Murray. Clint Didier, who is a former NFL player with Tea Party support, gets 45%. Businessman Paul Akers trails at 42% in a matchup with Murray.
There is an open primary on August 17th.
RCP has Murray up against the presumptive Repub nominee, Rossi, by a 3.7 spread. One of the polls included in calculating that (Elway) strikes me as suspect, showing a much larger Murray lead then the other polls.
When I last checked Rasmussen and RCP had Washington state listed as a tossup. I thiunk the former has moved it to Leans Dem.
That's where I have it.

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KANSAS SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (Aug 3rd)
This was a race between two members of the U.S. House of Representatives seeking to replace Sam Brownbeck (R) who has decided to leave Washington and run for Governor.
Jerry Moran ended up with 49% against Todd Tiarht's 45%. That was quite a bit closer then anticipated. Moran had held double digit leads in polls a few months ago.
Moran will have no problem winning the Senate seat in a heavily Republican state.
It was a nasty campaign between Moran and Tiarht. And it was expensive at something like $5M combined.
Tiarht had the support of Sarah Palin, Karl Rove and the tea party movement.

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Big day tomorrow. Tuesday is primary day in several states. It could be a bit telling.

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@realjohnboy,

http://media.timesfreepress.com/img/news/tease/2010/06/08/Decision_2010_0609.jpg

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Good evening. Some big primaries today.
I am watching the Republican primary for Governor of Georgia tonight. Way too close to call between Karen Handel and Nathan Deal.
Handel has the endorsement of Sarah Palin and the tea party folks. Gingrich and many main-stream Repubs support Deal. If Newt is running for President but can't influence a race in his home state there will be doubts about him. And if Handel loses, there will be questions about Palin.
But it looks moot at this point (9 pm ET) with the race about tied.

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66% of precincts in: Deal gets 51.3% vs Handel at 48.7%.

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Meanwhile, in Colorado, Michael Bennet - the incumbent Senator only because he was appointed to fill a vacancy, appears to have beaten back a challenge from Andrew Romanoff in the Dem primary. Obama backed Bennet. It would have been embarrassing had Bennet lost.
I had Romanoff winning.

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With 99% of the precincts in in GA - 578,000 Republicans voting in the Repub primary for Gov - Deal is leading by a mere 2,400 votes.

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@realjohnboy,

RJB just found this on TWS site from W. Kristol:

Quote:

"And (not to over-interpret one throwaway line from Juan!), it makes me wonder whether there isn't a pretty good chance the next GOP nominee won't be someone who is now governing successfully at the state level (like Christie or Daniels), or perhaps someone who next year could be seen to be quasi-governing effectively at the national level (in the sense of convincingly framing an alternative to Obama), if the GOP wins one or both Houses (like Paul Ryan)."

Interesting Kristol mentions Ryan here as a 2012 prospect. Ryan's main forte, so far, has been his emergence as the GOP's defacto fiscal Conservative in Chief. Lately his bonifides have been strengthed by way of his kerfuffle with NYTs Krugman starting with Krugman's argumentum ad hominem (where he labels Ryan's roadmap a Flimflam) followed by Ryan's rebuttal and ending with Krugman's lastest response.

JM

1 Reply

@JamesMorrison,

Thanks, JM, for following this sleepy little thread. Sleepy is probably good as the other political threads are full of screaming.
I don't know Paul Ryan from Wisconsin.
I will do some searching.

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New Mason-Dixon poll showing Rubio slightly ahead of Crist in the Florida Senate race.

Primary is Aug. 24.

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@Irishk,

Yeh, if it’s Greene for the Dems Crist slips ahead. With Meek taking the Dem nomination Rubio slips ahead. This is all poll calisthenics though. Seems Meek has a 14 point lead over Greene for the Dem position. Interesting. Just my opinion here, but it looks as if Crist's fate, if he is to be successful, might be determined by Meek voters and not independents, but the caveat here is iffy, at best.

The Dems have, pretty much, gone all in for Meek. Then we see that Greene finds: a) he is bored and b) a couple of extra million in his old work jeans which then leads to Greene deciding to run in the Dem primary as a lark.

It is important to note here that this particular poll (of registered voters) cites undecided as 11%, not an inconsequential number especially in light of that fact that independents, at least nationally, have favored conservatives by a 2 to 1 margin. But if one looks at the result of this poll we see that there is a portion of Dem voters (6%) that prefer Meek over Green, given a Crist in the race. However, given Crist, and no Meek at least some of those voters (that would vote for Meek) will vote for Crist rather than Greene. I know, I know this is a statement of the obvious from the polls and Meek seems way ahead of Greene, but it poses an interesting question, especially when one considers the obvious fact that Crist wants and needs the backing of a major political party to really put him over the top in the general.

As per the commentary, due to the strong influence of the GOP's conservative (and especially T-Party) element, Crist cannot look to his right. So the question becomes:
What if, after Meek wins the Dems nomination, the Dems decide to let Meeks whither and die on the vine (the polls show Meek will have an increasingly hard time against Rubio). Is it possible that, perhaps, at some point, the Dems would ask Meek to take one for the team, pull out, and transfer his support to Crist who will then become an official 'Moderate' Democrat? This way the newly Democratic Crist would pick up that additional 6% of voters that Greene is unable to garner while adding those that would vote for Crist and the Dem anyway. Counting his 1/3 of Independent votes would give Crist almost 55% of the vote! Just saying.

But if this scenario is a fairy tale, then so is Crist’s successful election to the U.S. Senate.

Later,

JM

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Excellent analysis, JM. Thanks.
Summarizing the polls you cited from a few days ago:
Rubio (R) - 38%; Crist (I) - 33%; Meek (D) - 18%.
Rubio (R) - 38% Crist (I) - 39%; Greene (D) - 12%.

Crist has slipped a bit. He got a bump for awhile, I think, because he got a lot of media attention lately. As Governor, he talked about banning off shore drilling near FL. That got him some support.
Now that that crisis seems largely over, attention turns to the Aug 24th Dem primary which involves a boat load of advertising by Meek and Greene. Bill Clinton, amongst others, will be campaigning for Meek.
A couple of polls show Meek ahead by double digits in recent polls of LV but with Greene ahead in a small poll of RV.
Rubio has the support of the Tea party movement. Any chance Crist might have will depend on the Dem voter base abandoning the nominated candidate in favor of the moderate Crist.

I think Crist will pull it off.

Thanks for playing.

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WASHINGTON STATE SENATE
The primary to select a Repub candidate to challenge Dem Incumbent Patty Murray is tomorrow (Aug 17th). 3 candidates. Murray leads against any of them but only by low single digits.
It should be interesting, with a Tea Party supported candidate in the mix.

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Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

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