Hanna, Ike and Josephine. Hurricanes of the Week

...No change in strength yet as Ike heads toward the northwestern
Gulf...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
Baffin Bay Texas. Hurricane conditions could reach the coast within
the warning area by late Friday.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield Texas.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from east of Morgan City
to the Mississippi-Alabama border...including the city of New
Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 700 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 26.2 north...longitude 89.9 west or about 475 miles...760
km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas and about 370 miles...
595 km...southeast of Galveston Texas.


Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours...with a
turn to the northwest expected late Friday. On the forecast
track...the center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast
by late Friday. However...because Ike is a very large tropical
cyclone...weather will deteriorate along the coastline long before
the center reaches the coast.


Data from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale...but is forecast to become a major hurricane
prior to reaching the coastline.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275
miles...445 km.


The latest minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft was 954 mb...28.17 inches.


Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes
landfall...except at the heads of bays...where surge flooding of up
to 25 feet could occur. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
waves...can be expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the northern Gulf Coast. Above normal tides in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico should gradually subside over the next day or so.


Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches along
the middle and Upper Texas coast and over portions of southwestern
Louisiana...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.

The consensus of all of the weather geeks that I'm reading is that Ike forgot to read the book. He's gonna do what he does and could come ashore anywhere from a strong 1 to a low 3. Not much talk of reaching a 4 any more. He seems to be forming a definite eye wall but continues to be a cat 2 storm with cat 3/4 pressure.

Edgar and mac -- let us know as you're able how you're holding up. We'll be watching and waiting.

You know, this is truly amazing to watch, this Hurricane Ike. I feel for the folks along the Texas coast...but from a meteorological standpoint, this has to be one of the more amazing storms ever seen. Here we have a low-end Cat 2 hurricane where the main threats are high winds, rain, and maybe some surge right near the right front quad of the eyewall....but we're talking almost a Katrina-like event in terms of surge due to the overall size of the storm.

This will be a case-study of many many meteorologists for many years to come. Simply amazing.