Texas City has not called for a mandatory evacuation due to the 20' levee that protects the city from Galveston Bay. If the storm surge exceeds 20' in that area the city will be open to the waters of Galveston Bay. Morning estimates for storm surge on the south side of Galveston Bay is 15'-18'. It appears that waves action will ultimately overwash a 20' levee but the question of peak storm surge on the south side of the bay remains open.
That is insane. If those numbers are accurate; every wave bigger than 2 to 5 feet will spill over and a rogue may not even notice that Levee. It is a very sloppy looking storm, so they may be gambling that it weakens quickly; but that is an insane risk. I do hope most of the residents have enough sense to get out on their own. Anyone living in an area vulnerable to flood should get the hell out too. Even sloppy, if a storm that size stalls, it could rain people under water. Worst of all though; I can't believe they're taking a 15+ foot surge lightly. That's a veritable bulldozer. Let’s hope it at least stays sloppy.
current estimates are that approx 40% of the residents of Galveston Island did not evacuate. 2000 census = 57,247
I wouldn't have believed they'd be given an option. Let's hope fate spares these people despite the gross mismanagement. The Category rating should be a secondary consideration on a barrier Island. The Surge is 10 times more likely than wind to cause death and destruction... so the coastal areas should consider this storm no less dangerous than a Cat-5. Water, being 784 times as dense as air, is the ultimate threat.
