29
   

The new Democratic party. What will it look like?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 01:45 am
@MontereyJack,
Trump won 100% of the Presidency in accordance with the constitutionally prescribed process for this federal republic. In addition the Republicans have won majorities in both Houses of Congress - a wider majority in the House than seen in the past five decades and a slim but stuill reliable majority in the Senate. In addition the number of Democrat Senate seats up for election in two years is far greater than those of Republica, thus opening the door for an even wider future majority. Finally Republicans have continued a decades-long continuous growth in state legislalative seats, adding about 200 this year, and they now hold 34 (or 35) of 50 gubernatorial seats.

The previous discord among House Republicans appears to have faded quickly and it appears likely they will pursue a highly unified approach to their legislative agenda starting in January. Ironically. it is now the Democrats who are in disarray, and without much bench strength in the Congress and State governments. Predicting future events is risky, and both could see changes in the months ahead, but right now Republican prospects look very good and appear to be getting better.

However, you are free to cling to any delusions you may choose.
revelette2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 08:23 am
@georgeob1,
Prior to the election republicans in the house had 246 seats, after the election they have 240 so that is a net loss of six. They lost 2 seats in senate and we gained 2 seats as well making it 48 and 51.
0 Replies
 
Frugal1
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 08:38 am
Quote:
The new Democratic party. What will it look like?


What new democrat party?

After an almost total repudiation of all things democrat at the polls, it appears they are doubling down on stupid. In other words, same ****, different day - nothing new.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 08:56 am
Your telling me the same ole stuff, republicans are fixing to come into the presidency when employment is the lowest it has been in nine years, poverty is lower and the economy is better than when Bush left office. We can count on every one of those things to go down hill like it always does when republicans gain control.

Unemployment rate falls to 4.6 percent in November, a 9-year low

Quote:
U.S. hiring picked up in November while the unemployment rate tumbled to a nine-year low on a drop in the number of people in the workforce and wages unexpectedly declined, providing a mixed picture of the labor market.

The 178,000 gain followed a 142,000 rise in October that was less than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 180,000 advance. The jobless rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 4.6 percent as labor participation dropped for a second month.

A steady job market also signals employers were willing to keep hiring in the days before and after the Nov. 8 presidential election. While the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise borrowing costs this month, sustained weakness in wages or participation would weigh on the economic outlook.


Why make drastic changes, why not continue and just make changes where improvement could help things? But according to Pence, that is not likely to happen.
georgeob1
 
  3  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 11:27 am
@revelette2,
Hasn't it struck you as odd that we hear so much about rising income inequity, stagnant wages and declining opportunities for the young entering the work force and then, a moment later, boastful claims about the very low unemployment rate. How can the two coexist???

The fact is that the percentage of working age people (and that age is rising with increased life expectancy ) who are gainfully emploued in full time jobs is at a long term low. The bean counters in the Labor Department count as unemployed only those who lack a job and who are active looking for one. Those who have given up to long-term unemployment aren't counted. In addition, as a direct result of the explosive growth of complex Federal Rergulations imposed by our "progressive" administration and the unusually low economic growth that has occurred in the current "recovery", companies are sitting on hordes of capital, fearful of investing it in new or expanded enterprises, largely because they can't calculate or anticipate what our stupid government will do next to harm the economy and our prospects for beneficial growth. The result is low investment, tentative and cautious, at best, hiring and a large number of temporary and part time jobs. The result is low wage growth and deceptively high jobless statistics
revelette2
 
  3  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 11:30 am
@georgeob1,
Like blickers I blame some of it on loss of Labor union power. Big corporations are not forced to deal with their workers concerns. Doubt it will be improved with republican white house never has been before.
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 11:38 am
@revelette2,
Labor unions don't create jobs, Instead they restrict access to them and eventually destroy them by destroying the creativity and initiative that keeps the firms they infest competitive in a world that will remain competitive no matter what we wish or do.

The asutomobile industry is thriving in right to work states, largely in the South. It is mostly dead in Michigan, Illinois and other states that once dominated it. What caused that ? The simple fact that Michigan is now a right-to-work state should tell yoiu something about the long-term benefits of labor unions.
revelette2
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 12:36 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
The simple fact that Michigan is now a right-to-work state should tell yoiu something about the long-term benefits of labor unions
.

Not really. It tells me republicans are better at messaging than democrats.

“Right-to-Work” States Still Have Lower Wages
Quote:

Introduction and executive summary

Under federal law, no one can be forced to join a union as a condition of employment, and the Supreme Court has made clear that workers cannot be forced to pay dues used for political purposes. So-called right-to-work (RTW) legislation goes one step further and entitles employees to the benefits of a union contract—including the right to have the union take up their grievance if their employer abuses them—without paying any of the cost.

This means that if an employer mistreats a worker who does not pay a union representation fee, the union must prosecute that worker’s grievance just as it would a dues-paying member’s, even if it costs tens of thousands of dollars. Non-dues-paying workers would also receive the higher wages and benefits their dues-paying coworkers enjoy. RTW laws have nothing to do with whether people can be forced to join a union or contribute to a political cause they do not support; that is already illegal. Nor do RTW laws have anything to do with the right to have a job or be provided employment.

At their core, RTW laws seek to hamstring unions’ ability to help employees bargain with their employers for better wages, benefits, and working conditions. Given that unionization raises wages both for individual union members as well as for nonunion workers in unionized sectors, it is not surprising that research shows that both union and nonunion workers in RTW states have lower wages and fewer benefits, on average, than comparable workers in other states.

Indeed, in a 2011 EPI paper, Elise Gould and Heidi Shierholz estimate that wages in RTW states are 3.2 percent lower on average than wages in non-RTW states, even after controlling for a full set of worker characteristics and state labor market conditions. Gould and Shierholz (2011) also find that workers in RTW states are less likely to have employer-sponsored health insurance and pension coverage.

In this paper, we update that research and subject the results to a series of robustness tests. We utilize more recent data from the Current Population Survey, and employ a cost-of-living indicator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that was only made available in the years following the release of Gould and Shierholz (2011). Last, we subject our results to various robustness tests as suggested by Sherk (2015) regarding choice of specific explanatory variables. We find that the main results hold under any reasonable alternative specifications. Only extensive data-mining and non-standard specifications of wage equations can move the estimated RTW penalty to statistical insignificance. Our central findings are:

. Wages in RTW states are 3.1 percent lower than those in non-RTW states, after controlling for a full complement of individual demographic and socioeconomic factors as well as state macroeconomic indicators. This translates into RTW being associated with $1,558 lower annual wages for a typical full-time, full-year worker.

. The relationship between RTW status and wages remains economically and statistically significant under alternative specifications of our econometric model.


(more at the source)

Quote:
Decline of unions has hurt all workers: study

The steep decline in union membership in recent decades has had an outsize effect on the American workforce, tamping down wage increases for nonunion workers, a new study says.

Average weekly earnings for nonunion private-sector male workers would have been 5%, or $52, higher in 2013 if the share of union workers had remained at 1979 levels, according to the study out Tuesday from the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute ahead of Labor Day. That’s tantamount to a loss of $2,704 annually for the average nonunion worker.

The paper was authored by Washington University sociologists Jake Rosenfeld and Patrick Denice, and Jennifer Laird, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy.

The earnings loss is smaller for women because they were not as unionized as men in 1979. Weekly wages would be about 2% to 3% higher for women if union membership had stayed at 1979 levels, the report says.

About 10% of male private-sector workers were union members in 2013, down from 34% in 1979. In that period, the share of women who belong to unions fell to 6% from 16%.

The report argues the dwindling influence of unions is a significant but often ignored reason for wage stagnation, along with globalization, technological change and the slowdown in educational achievement gains.

The prevalence of unions affects the pay of nonunion workers in various ways, the study says. Nonunion employers often raise their workers’ pay to foster loyalty and head off an organizing drive. Kodak deployed that strategy in highly organized New York State, the study says.

The fatter paychecks of union workers also creates a more competitive labor market that forces nonunion companies to lift wages to prevent employees from jumping ship. And unions often establish labor-friendly policies that generally promote fairness in pay, benefits and worker treatment, according to the report.

The gains of yesteryear were not limited to nonunion workers at risk of joining unions, the study says. When those workers received raises, their higher-level supervisors who couldn't join unions also saw sharper pay increases to maintain salary hierarchies, the paper says.

But the losses engendered by shrinking union participation are most pronounced for nonunion private-sector male workers who lack a Bachelor's degree. Wages for that group would be 8% higher in 2013 if union membership had stayed at 1979 levels, translating into an annual wage loss of $3,016.

source
layman
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 12:54 pm
@revelette2,
"Decline of unions has hurt all workers: study"

Heh, could the conclusions drawn from this study get any more simplistic and one-sided, ya figure?

"Hurt," eh? By "hurt" they mean make 3% less?

Having your pay reduced from, say, $20.00/hour, down to $19.40/hour does not "hurt" near as much as being laid off and having no income whatsoever, doncha think?

High labor costs in the USA have already driven millions of job overseas. Ask people who have been out of jobs for two years. That's where the real "hurt" is. They would much rather work for $10/hour (let alone $20) than to remain jobless. If that's what it takes in order to allow employing businesses a chance to compete in the world market, then the workers should be all for it, before ALL the jobs are gone.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 05:09 pm
Back to the Democrat Party, post election. So far the Party appears to have resisted any significant changes in either the Party leadership, that of the Congressional delegations or its strtategy going forward.

Sen. Chuck Schumer NY quickly let go of his hopes for a role as a successor to Harry Reid as Majority leader, and is now busy issuing demands, and a few empty -looking threats, to the Republican leaders in the Senate regarding their legislative agenda. He may now regret the actions he and the unlamented Reid took in the previous session to remove the right of Filibuster on Presidential staff nominations.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi was reelected as Minority leader in the now shrunken Democrat House caucous, but with some opposition this time, and some expressed concerns about the possible need for some more thoughtful reconsideration of their strategy and possible needs for new leadership.

Meanwhile pressures from the left wing of the Party are mounting to quickly approve the candidicy of Rep Keith Ellison MN as DNC chairman, despite concerns regarding his former association with, and support for, the Chicago-based 'Nation of Islam' and its leader Louis Farrakahan, and the Racist, anti Semitic crap he has long espoused. This does seem an odd choice, following the comedy of the previous disputes within it regarding a bias towards Candidate Hillary Clinton under former chairman Wasserman-Schultz and additional issues attending her successor Donna Brasile involving the leaking of planned presidential debate questions to the Clinton staff while she was a CNBC employee. The Ellison nomination is also unusual in that he is a serving Congressman seeking a job normally held by a non office holder. Former DNC chairman Howard Dean has recently withdrawn his candidacy as a contender to Ellison, leaving the far left wing of the party and its candidate, Ellison more or less alone in the field of candidates.

All that constitutes an unusual level of disruption, even beyond what might be expected following such an unexpected loss in the Presidential race. Moreover there so far appears to be no serious introspection or reorganization yet underway following the election setback. I expect that such an internal reassessment will indeed occur in the next few months, but so far the left wing and former Sanders elements of the party constitute most of what is left standing.

The Presidential race was close in the overall voting, but very decisive in terms of the state-by state oputcomes. Democrat control is now more localized geographically than at any time in history - it is now the party of New York, Boston, Chicago, Los angeles and San Francisco- not a great base for building a deep bench. There was little depth behind Hillary even early in the campaign and now that defect is much more evident.
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 06:47 pm
@revelette2,
Quote:

At their core, RTW laws seek to hamstring unions’ ability to help employees bargain with their employers for better wages, benefits, and working conditions.


Isn't it sad that this right to work idea has been around for such a long time yet most people still do not understand it?

Did you know that "right to work" are code words according to Marten Luther King? It reminds me of citizens united.
Lola
 
  2  
Reply Fri 2 Dec, 2016 10:26 pm
@georgeob1,
I am absolutely confused about the subject of this thread.
Frugal1
 
  -3  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 08:24 am
It looks like a Muzzie who once called Hitler "a great man" will be the head of the new Democrat Party.

0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 08:36 am
@Lola,
Quote:
The new Democratic Party? What will it look like? What do you think about us talking about it now?

Do any Democrats like Bernie? Could we show the world what ethical politicians look like by starting debates with Bernie Sanders against Jill stein? I personally think it would look close to Jesus debating himself. What do you think?


It started with the above from Reasoning Logic but has mainly devolved into democrat/liberal/progressive bashing.

There are core beliefs which are shared between neoliberal (so called) and the progressives Bernie's and one of them was/is unions and workers rights. There are a lot more. I never really understood the hang-up the Bernie progressives (just trying to find a label for identifying purposes) had with the so called neoliberals. Politics and big money so to speak have always been around, you can't hardly do anything in politics without it. But at the core those democrats with big money connections have the same beliefs as the Bernie progressives so there is no reason why some of those who were for Bernie in the primary and Bernie himself couldn't be among those who are steering the wheel of democratic ship with both sharing their values. Neoliberals can learn from the Bernie Progressives. As for Jill Stein, despite her recount efforts, in my opinion, no. The woman is too out there.

The question has been going around about what democrats can learn about themselves through this loss when they (we) thought we had it in the bag. I have thought about it myself and my own conclusion (for whatever it is worth) is that we need to go more left to meet with the Bernie's.
Frugal1
 
  -4  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 09:47 am
Most of the new democrat party will be undergoing intensive therapy for the next few years.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 10:42 am
@Lola,
Lola wrote:

I am absolutely confused about the subject of this thread.



Hi Lola ! It's great to encounter you back here. In the interim both of us have taken long breaks from it .... but we return.

If you're confused about the subject of the thread that's likely because you've been reading the posts ! Like many the topic has taken a few meandering excursions on other paths in response to some provocative posts ... i.e. unemployment statistiscs, labor unions etc. Beyond that I think the central theme is 'what is/will the Democrat party do to adapt to unfolding circumstances in the wake of the election and to what (if any) degree mas a change in focus or strategy be beneficial for them.'

0 Replies
 
layman
 
  0  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 10:48 am
@revelette2,
revelette2 wrote:

I have thought about it myself and my own conclusion (for whatever it is worth) is that we need to go more left to meet with the Bernie's.


Yeah, take a hard left turn. That's the ticket! Please do it.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 02:27 pm
@reasoning logic,
reasoning logic wrote:

Quote:

At their core, RTW laws seek to hamstring unions’ ability to help employees bargain with their employers for better wages, benefits, and working conditions.


Isn't it sad that this right to work idea has been around for such a long time yet most people still do not understand it?



I believe most people understand it very well. It springs from the freedom of association guaranteed in our constitution. It simply mean that a worker cannot be compelled, against his or her will, to join or pay dues to a labor union as a precondition of getting a job.

It is in effect a law against monopolistic control of employment by labor unions. No different in intent from monopoly restrtictions by businesses selling goods or services.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 03:24 pm
@revelette2,
Nothing to worry about Rev. Give them 4 years and they will have things screwed up like Bush 43 and Ronny Raygun did.
0 Replies
 
Frugal1
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 3 Dec, 2016 03:28 pm
I imagine the 'new' democrat party will look like this for a long time.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cyx995qWEAEFKSV.jpg:large
0 Replies
 
 

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