THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, ELEVENTH THREAD

Quote:

New study says 151,000 Iraqi dead

One of the biggest surveys so far of Iraqis who have died violently since the US-led invasion of 2003 has put the figure at about 151,000.

This is about a quarter of the figure given in a disputed Lancet article, but nearly three times higher than that of the Iraq Body Count campaigning group.
...

(source)

http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/2007/
IBC'S MAXIMUM ESTIMATE OF CIVILIAN VIOLENT DEATHS

2003 = 12,010
2004 = 10,573
2005 = 14,324
2006 = 27,519
2007 = 24,159

TOTAL = 88,585

151,000 / 88,585 = 1.705

That's not "almost three times higher than that of the Iraq Body Count campaigning group;" That's not even almost two times higher.

The World Health Organization study looks only at the period from March 2003 until June 2006.

How I interrpret the Before Invasion and After Invastion statistics is that After Invasion deaths almost doubled for all ages. Tell me if I'm wrong.

As of December 31, 2007, Total Iraq Violent Deaths since January 1, 2003 = 151,000 over 1,826 days.

Here, ican, it was right in the bit I quoted:

old europe wrote:

The World Health Organization study looks only at the period from March 2003 until June 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7180055.stm

New study says 151,000 Iraqi dead
One of the biggest surveys so far of Iraqis who have died violently since the US-led invasion of 2003 has put the figure at about 151,000.
...
The World Health Organization study looks only at the period from March 2003 until June 2006.
...

ican711nm wrote:

As of December 31, 2007, Total Iraq Violent Deaths since January 1, 2003 = 151,000 over 1,826 days.

Uhm. The study only covered March 2003 through June 2006.


So, that'd be about 1,218 days. And about 124 violent deaths per day. Right?

I confess I now do not know which if any of those two statements to believe.

ican711nm wrote:

I confess I now do not know which if any of those two statements to believe.

It'd would seem as if the study covers the time frame and deaths between March 2003 through June 2006, but was only published now (on January 9, 2008).

Anyways, if you want to look at the study, it has been published here (link goes to the New England Journal of Medicine).

Irrespective of the statistics
the war waged against Iraq is barbaric pure .
Those Americans who had tacidly, passively participated in this barbarism are disqualified to spread democracy. .
We the non-participants of this barbarism are active to expose hypocracy and uphold democracy.
Let the leading candidates come out to change this NONSENSE

old europe wrote:

ican711nm wrote:

I confess I now do not know which if any of those two statements to believe.

It'd would seem as if the study covers the time frame and deaths between March 2003 through June 2006, but was only published now (on January 9, 2008).

Anyways, if you want to look at the study, it has been published here (link goes to the New England Journal of Medicine).

Thanks for the link. It shows you to be right.
Now without qualification (i.e., my assumption was wrong), I apologize for my error.

Assuming the 151,000 estimate applies only to the March 2003 through June 2006 period, I agree. I also agree that 124 violent deaths per day per day is less than the 240 per day average daily violent death rate during Saddam Hussein's regime.

ican711nm wrote:

Assuming the 151,000 estimate applies only to the March 2003 through June 2006 period, I agree. I also agree that 124 violent deaths per day per day is less than the 240 per day average daily violent death rate during Saddam Hussein's regime.

I'd say it's hard to compare the numbers if we don't know about the methodology used to get the numbers for the time during Saddam Hussein's regime.

However, it should also be noted that, according to the IBC, the numbers of violent deaths in the 18 month period between July 2006 and December 2007 were almost as high as the number of deaths between March 2003 through June 2006.


(So, if you'd use the IBC numbers, and extrapolate the violent deaths between March 2003 and December 2007 using the IFHS data, you'd arrive at a number higher than 153 deaths/day. Which is not much more than a wild guess. But then again, so is comparing numbers of the Hussein period with numbers of the post-Hussein period - unless you're using the same methodology.)

I did not use the post February 2003 statistics to compute the January 1, 1979 to December 31, 2002 statistics. For that period I used the Britannica Books of the Year. For example, the 1996 and 1997 Books of the Year are what provided me the population and vital statistics for, respectively, 1995 and 1996. In some cases, the violent death statistics for a particular year were extrapolated by me from a preceding or a subsequent year.