dyslexia wrote:There is no issue of getting more R's elected in november, the only open issue is how many R's will lose seats.
cjhsa wrote:Really? And what planet did you say you live on?
The reality-based community, I'm guessing. I've collected the current assessments of the election-watchers here for you in a simple table:
The
Congressional Quarterly election forecast map has 4 currently Republican-held Senate seats as toss-ups or even Democratic-leaning. It only has 2 Democratic-held Senate seats as toss-ups.
Regarding the House, the CQ identifies 12 toss-up races. 11 of them are now Republican-held; just 1 of them is the Democrats' to lose.
Rasmussen Reports currently has 4 Republican-held Senate seats leaning Democrat, and another 2 being a toss-up. Conversely, there's just 1 Democrat-held seat in the Toss-up category, and none leaning Republican.
The
Rothenberg Political Report currently has 2 Republican-held Senate seats leaning to the Democrats, 3 a total toss-up, and an additional one with the Republican incumbent having only a narrow advantage. Making 6 Senate seats the Reps stand to lose. Conversely, it only has 1 Democrat-held seat as a toss-up, and 1 with the Dems in a narrow advantage. Makes just 2.
For the House races, Rothenberg identifies 24 races as being in play, rated either a complete toss-up (10) or with a slight tilt to the Republicans (8) or to the Democrats (6). Every single one of these races is currently Republican-held. There is no Democratic-held seat identified as being in play.
On
Real Clear Politics, 6 Republican-held Senate seats are marked toss-up, and an additional 1 as leaning Democratic. Only 2 Democratic-held Senate seats are rated toss-up, and none leaning Republican.
In the RealClearPolitics list of House seats most likely to switch party control, every single one of the first 20 are seats now held by a Republican that the Reps stand to lose to the Democrats.
The
Cook Political Report has 6 Republican-held Senate seats as a toss-up. Conversely, it has just 1 Democratic-held seat rated tossup.
For the House, Cook has 2 Republican-held seats leaning Democrat outright, and another 18 rated toss-up. On the other hand, it has not a single Democratic-held seat rated toss-up or worse.
On Washington Post's
The Fix, Chris Cillizza identifies "The Line" of Senate and House seats most at risk for a take-over by the other party.
Currently, of the 10 Senate seats most at risk for a take-over, 7 are Republican seats veering to a Democratic challenger. Only 3 are Democratic seats veering to a Republican.
As for the House, of the 20 seats he identifies as most vulnerable, a whopping 18 represent Republicans risking losing their seat. There's just two Democratic-held seats at play.
The
NY Times election forecast map has 3 Republican-held Senate seats rated toss-up and another 2 leaning Democrat. Conversely, it has just 1 Democratic-held Senate seat as a toss-up.
As for the House, it has 15 Republican-held seats at play as a complete toss-up, and another 5 Republican-held seats leaning or safe Democratic. It has not a single Democratic-held seat at play.
Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin maintain the
Election Scorecard at Slate. Currently they have 6 Republican-held Senate seats as toss-ups or leaning Democrat; and just 1 Democrat-held seat as toss-up.
In short - why, what planet do you live on, cjhsa?
